Join Tony as he walks you through a Macro Market outlook, and shares his top bearish and bullish options trading ideas. He talks growth vs. value, commodities, bonds, the Dollar Index, sectors like homebuilders and semiconductors, and stocks like NVDA, DIS, INTC, and more.
This video premiered on November 26, 2024.
On November 21, 2024, Citron Capital shorted MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR). What made this confrontation particularly electrifying was the clash between two titans: Citron, a legendary short seller, and MicroStrategy, arguably the strongest stock of 2024.
Why did Citron short MicroStrategy? Citron called its $91 billion valuation a reckless Bitcoin bubble. MSTR began buying Bitcoin in 2020; it currently owns 1.7% of the global Bitcoin supply and some analysts expect the company to own 4% by 2033. Citron viewed MSTR’s Bitcoin hoarding as a leveraged gamble that could implode if Bitcoin falters.
To see the impact of MSTR’s crypto trade, look at the correlation between the stocks and the crypto on a weekly chart.
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF MICROSTRATEGY. The Correlation Coefficient in the bottom panel shows how MSTR strongly correlates with Bitcoin. MSTR has also outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPX).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The stellar rise in MSTR from a low of $43-and-change in January to a high of $543 in November has been anything but smooth and steady. MicroStrategy is a business analytics company that provides exposure to both AI and Bitcoin (due to its heavy accumulation). It’s like two trades in one. StockCharts’s Correlation Coefficient indicator shows how correlated MSTR is to $BTCUSD. You will want to keep an eye on this: if Bitcoin rises or falls, it will likely affect MSTR’s stock price.
You can also see MSTR’s relative performance against the S&P 500 ($SPX). Currently, it’s outperforming the broad index by over 300%. Overvalued and risky? That’s Citron’s take, and you can see the plunging effect of Citron’s thesis as it took action in the market.
Nevertheless, MSTR still ranks within the Top 10 of StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) report, its technical strength holding its measured position despite the big short and the risk it entails.
FIGURE 2. SCTR REPORT ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2024. MSTR is fourth from the top, with a SCTR score of 99.5.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
If this remains true, might the stock experience a bounce, attracting prospective bulls to enter positions at perceived discount levels? If so, where? Let’s shift to a daily chart.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF MSTR. Note how the swing points correspond cleanly with the Fibonacci Retracement lines.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Drawing Fibonacci Retracement levels from the August low to the November high, you can better contextualize the pullback to see where bullish investors may be looking for entry points. Note that I circled each level to highlight each potential support area.
One place that buyers may be looking for an early bounce is at the swing high point right above $380, which coincides with the Fib 38.2% retracement. While some buyers might have jumped in, that level may be too aggressive an entry as the price is looking to break below it. The next potential support levels are the swing low between $318 and $320, which converges with the Fib 50% line, and, below that, the October swing high near $267, which is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level.
Should any of these points trigger a bounce, check volume and buying pressure as a potential indicator for institutional support. Right now, if you look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), you can see that sellers are firmly in control of the stock (see green circle). You will want to see that situation reverse, with the CMF line crossing above the zero line.
While watching these levels, do the following:
This should give you ample time to observe and respond, assessing whether the technical context signals a buy or a wait-and-see. You can also check the fundamental story to see what’s happening with the stock, particularly if the technicals remain fuzzy.
MicroStrategy’s meteoric rise in 2024, fueled by its double play on Bitcoin and AI, has made it a magnet for both bulls and skeptics. While Citron’s short position underscores bearish concerns about overvaluation and leverage risk, the stock’s technical strength and correlation with Bitcoin continue to attract bullish attention. Keep an eye on support levels and for any shift between buying/selling momentum. The technical levels above should map out the key areas to watch and key technical events to anticipate.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Cyprium Metals Limited (ASX: CYM, OTC: CYPMF) is pleased to present the Prefeasibility Study (“PFS”) for the Nifty Copper Complex. The PFS confirms the economic viability of large-scale production of copper in concentrate (“Concentrate Project”) through the refurbishment and expansion of Nifty’s brownfield concentrator and accompanying new surface mine. The PFS also confirms economics of producing copper cathode by re-treating Nifty’s Heap Leach Pads 1-6 (“Initial Cathode Project”) which is a subset of oxide opportunities. This PFS supports the first Ore Reserve Estimate (“ORE”) to be published on the Concentrate Project and Initial Cathode Project (collectively referred to as the “Projects”).
Highlights on a combined basis include:
“The successful completion of this comprehensive PFS marks a pivotal milestone for Cyprium. This is important, foundational work that we will build on” said Executive Chair Matt Fifield.
“The PFS highlights the long duration and immense profitability of Nifty’s Concentrate Project. With 797,000 tonnes of copper in total reserve supporting more than $3 billion dollars of pre-tax cash flow, Nifty is a large and important copper source and economic engine for Australia,” said Fifield.
“There are few near-term copper development opportunities that present the scale, longevity and positive economics of Nifty’s Concentrate Project, and really none that have the speed and cost advantages of a permitted brownfield site and access to Western Australia’s world-class supply chain,” added Fifield. “The important information in this PFS serves as a strategic foundation for our forward activities as we move towards project execution.”
For a copy of this announcement and a short introductory video please visit Cyprium Metals Investor Hub at https://investorhub.cypriummetals.com/link/drLK0e.
Click here for the full ASX Release
Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM), the world’s largest gold miner, is continuing its divestiture program through the sale of its Éléonore mine in Québec to Dhilmar, a private UK-based mining firm, for US$795 million in cash.
Located in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, Éléonore is a prominent underground gold operation. Since producing its first gold in 2014, the mine has contributed significantly to Newmont’s output, averaging 215,000 ounces annually.
The sale is expected to close in Q1 2025, pending regulatory approvals and other standard closing conditions.
The transaction follows Newmont’s recently announced sale of the Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario to Orla Mining (TSX:OLA,NYSEAMERICAN:ORLA) for US$850 million.
Together, these two deals contribute substantially to Newmont’s efforts to reshape its portfolio — the company has now exceeded its initial target of generating US$2 billion through asset sales.
“Proceeds from this transaction will support Newmont’s comprehensive approach to capital allocation, which includes strengthening our investment-grade balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders,” said Tom Palmer, the company’s president and CEO, in a Monday (November 25) press release.
“We are pleased to be selling this operation to Dhilmar,” he added. “They have a wealth of experience in gold and copper mining and we believe Dhilmar will be excellent stewards of this asset.’
Éléonore, acquired by Newmont as part of its 2019 purchase of Goldcorp, is the second Canadian asset to be sold by Newmont as part of its ongoing divestiture program. The program aims to concentrate Newmont’s resources on its core Tier 1 gold and copper assets — those with long mine lives and the scale to generate sustainable free cash flow.
Dhilmar, the purchaser of Éléonore, is a relatively new player in the global mining industry. Alexander Ramlie, the firm’s CEO, is known for his role in the 2016 acquisition of Indonesia’s Batu Hijau copper-gold mine.
Newmont’s current approach stems from its broader portfolio optimization strategy, initiated after its acquisition of Newcrest Mining in 2023. The company initially said it was aiming to generate US$2 billion through asset sales to improve its balance sheet, increase shareholder returns and allocate capital efficiently.
Both the Musselwhite and Éléonore sales alone have added US$1.65 billion to Newmont’s divestiture proceeds.
Combined with other completed and planned asset sales, the company has raised approximately US$3.6 billion from its optimization program, significantly surpassing its original target.
In addition to Éléonore and Musselwhite, Newmont has identified other assets for potential sale, including its Porcupine mine and Coffee project in Canada, as well as its Cripple Creek & Victor mine in the US.
This strategy coincides with a broader industry trend of large mining firms divesting smaller, less profitable or more geographically dispersed assets to focus on core projects. Newmont’s approach is consistent with the strategy of prioritizing high-margin, scalable operations that promise consistent cashflow over long periods.
Companies like Dhilmar and Orla are taking advantage of these sales to expand their own portfolios.
Orla’s acquisition of the Musselwhite mine, for example, is expected to more than double its gold production, underscoring the opportunities presented by divestitures for mid-tier and private mining firms.
The gold price, which has remained strong due to global economic uncertainty, continues to play a significant role in shaping these transactions. A stable or rising price increases the attractiveness of gold assets, providing an opportune time for companies like Newmont to sell non-core properties at favorable valuations.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) shares plunged 11% following a disappointing Q3 earnings report and a sharp downgrade of its fiscal 2024 outlook. The department store chain reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.20, significantly below analysts’ expectations of $0.31. Revenue declined 8.8% year-over-year to $3.51 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $3.65 billion, while comparable sales fell 9.3%, reflecting continued weakness in its core apparel and footwear categories.
In response to the challenging environment, Kohl’s cut its full-year earnings forecast. The new range is $1.20 to $1.50 per share. This is a stark reduction from its prior outlook. It is also below Wall Street’s consensus of $1.86. The company now expects full-year net sales to decline by 7%-8%. Comparable sales are projected to drop 6%-7%. This signals further headwinds in the months ahead.
CEO Tom Kingsbury acknowledged the struggles in key categories but highlighted growth in segments like Sephora and home decor. However, these gains were insufficient to offset the broader declines. On a positive note, gross margin improved slightly, rising 20 basis points to 39.1%, and inventory levels were reduced by 3% year-over-year.
Kohl’s is facing mounting challenges. Weak consumer demand is weighing
KSS/USD 15-Minute Chart
The 15-minute chart of Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) demonstrates significant price action and momentum shifts over recent sessions. After a prolonged downtrend, the stock bottomed near $16.12 on the 20th before experiencing a sharp bullish reversal. A strong green candlestick on the 22nd signals robust buying interest, pushing the price above $18.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) initially showed oversold conditions below 30 before recovering, peaking above 70, signalling overbought territory during the recent surge. Currently, RSI is at 55.71, suggesting neutral momentum but leaning towards consolidation. The price now sits around $18.34, reflecting a slight pullback after reaching a session high of $18.74.
Resistance appears near $18.50–$18.75 as the price struggled to maintain upward momentum. Support levels can be observed around $17.00–$17.50, offering potential entry points if a retracement occurs. The recent price breakout and volume spikes suggest a bullish bias in the short term, though continued strength is contingent on holding above $18.
Traders should monitor RSI divergence and volume patterns to confirm a potential continuation of the uptrend or a reversal. A break above $18.75 could pave the way for higher highs, while failure to hold $18 may signal a correction toward key support zones.
The post Kohl’s Shares Plunge 11% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.
Kenneth Leech, the former co-chief investment officer of Western Asset Management Co, was charged by U.S. authorities on Monday with running a fraudulent “cherry-picking” scheme where he improperly favored some clients’ accounts over others when allocating trades.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said that between January 2021 and October 2023, Leech disproportionately allocated better performing trades to favored portfolios, and worse performing trades to other portfolios.
Leech also faces related criminal charges from the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan, the SEC said.
Lawyers for Leech did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The U.S. attorney’s office did not immediately respond to a similar request.
Western Asset Management, known as Wamco, is part of Franklin Resources, which acquired the business through its purchase of Legg Mason in 2020.
Clients have pulled tens of billions of dollars from Wamco in the last few months, after Franklin announced that authorities were investigating Leech.
Kohl’s is getting a new CEO, its third since 2018.
The off-mall department store’s current CEO Tom Kingsbury is stepping down effective Jan. 15. He will leave the position he held first on an interim basis starting in late 2022, and then permanently since early 2023.
Michaels CEO Ashley Buchanan will take over the top job at Kohl’s as Kingsbury departs, after leading the crafting retailer since 2020. Prior to his time at Michaels, Buchanan was at Walmart and its Sam’s Club division for 13 years.
Kohl’s shares fell about 3% in extended trading following the announcement.
At the world’s largest retailer, he held the roles of chief merchandising and chief operating officer for Walmart U.S. e-commerce and chief merchant at Sam’s Club before that. Buchanan is currently on the board of Macy’s, but will be stepping down from that role.
Kingsbury will remain with Kohl’s in an advisory role to Buchanan and stay on the board until he retires in May. Kohl’s doesn’t intend to replace Kingsbury and will reduce the board size by one seat.
Buchanan will step in just after the critical holidays end and as the retailer closes its fiscal year. There’s a lot of work to be done at a time when department stores are struggling to resonate with shoppers who have more options than ever before. While Kohl’s off-mall physical format has insulated it a bit more than other department stores, it has had a difficult several years.
Kohl’s shares fell 17% during Kingsbury’s interim period from Dec. 2, 2022 to Feb. 2, 2023 and then dropped a further 45% since. Kingsbury hasn’t been able to return sales to growth at Kohl’s. Its comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, have fallen for the past 10 quarters.
Kingsbury took over as CEO after Michelle Gass left Kohl’s to become president and then eventual CEO of Levi Strauss. Kingsbury had been a member of the Kohl’s board since 2021. He previously served as CEO of Burlington Stores from 2008 to 2019.