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November 28, 2024

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Navigating Holiday Stock Market Changes: Turn Sentiment Shifts into Successes

The day before Thanksgiving, the stock market took a little breather. But the weekly performance was still impressive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) remains the broader index leader, rising 0.96% for the week. The S&P 500 ($SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) ended the week with smaller gains than the Dow. Earlier in the week, investors were more bullish, but Wednesday’s selloff didn’t disrupt the uptrend.

It may have been a short trading week, but we got a handful of economic data to chew on. The revised Q3 GDP data shows the US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate, last week’s jobless claims came in lower than expected, and durable goods fell 0.2% in October.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE rose 2.3% year-over-year in October, which was in line with expectations but slightly higher than last month’s 2.1% rise. This indicates that inflation is moving away from the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. Core PCE came in higher at 2.8% year-over-year.

Earlier this week, we had the FOMC minutes. They indicated that the Fed will gradually cut interest rates if the economy continues to perform as expected. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 66.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the December meeting.

The Stock Market’s Reaction

Looking at the 5-day change in performance using the StockCharts MarketCarpets, heavyweights NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL/GOOG), and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) were the largest decliners. The performance of these large-cap stocks would have been the tailwinds that held the Nasdaq and S&P 500 back.

FIGURE 1. 5-DAY PERFORMANCE OF THE S&P 500 THROUGH THE MARKETCARPET LENS. There’s a lot of green, but some large-cap stocks saw declines.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This week, money rotated from energy and technology stocks into real estate, consumer staples, and financial stocks. Antitrust efforts against Alphabet and now Microsoft, along with tariff talks impacting semiconductor stocks, have hurt the stock prices of several mega-cap tech stocks. With cash leaving these stocks, small- and mid-cap stocks have benefited, although they, too, came off their highs by the end of Wednesday’s trading.

The Dow reached an all-time high on Wednesday but sold off, ending the day slightly lower. The uptrend is still intact, as seen in the daily chart below.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERGE ($INDU). The uptrend is still intact with the 21-day EMA, 50-and 100-day SMAs trending upward. The Dow is outperforming the S&P 500 slightly.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Dow is trading well above its upward-sloping 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). It’s also slightly outperforming the S&P 500 by 1.27%. The S&P 500 has a similar pattern, but the Nasdaq Composite is struggling.

The daily chart of the Nasdaq below shows that it is underperforming the S&P 500, albeit slightly.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Even though the Nasdaq is the weaker performer of the three broad indexes, its trend is still positively sloped and holding the 21-day EMA support. The Nasdaq is underperforming the S&P 500 slightly.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The long-term trend is still in play. The 21-day EMA is trending upward and continues to be a valid support level for the index.

In the Bond World

The biggest action this week was the sentiment shift in the bond market. Treasury yields were rising until last week. However, several events this week have eased inflation fears, resulting in declining Treasury yields and rising bond prices (bond prices and yields move in opposite directions). Wednesday’s PCE data didn’t change the directional move.

The chart below shows that the 10-Year US Treasury Yield ($TNX) met resistance at its July 1 close and reversed. It is now trading below its 21-day EMA.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD. The 10-year yield hit a resistance level and, since then, has been trending lower. It is now trading below its 21-day EMA. The rate of change (ROC) indicates the decline is accelerating.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The rate of change (ROC) indicator in the lower panel is below zero. This means that yields are falling relatively quickly.

The bottom line: Equities may have sold off on Wednesday, but nothing to disrupt the uptrend. A little profit-taking ahead of the holiday shopping season shouldn’t come as a surprise. You deserve to celebrate consumerism once in a while.

Wishing everyone a happy, healthy Thanksgiving!

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Five Ways You Should Use ChartLists Starting Today!

Having used many technical analysis platforms over my career as a technical analyst, I can tell you with a clear conscience that the ChartList feature on StockCharts provides exceptional capabilities to help you identify investment opportunities and manage risk in your portfolio.

Once you get your portfolio or watch list set up using the ChartList feature, you can use these five powerful tools to break down the list of stocks or ETFs, identify patterns of strength and weakness, and anticipate where the next opportunities may arise!

Summary View to Identify Outliers

The Summary view is a great starting point, sort of like a high level menu of what all we can do with this list of charts.  All of the columns are sortable, so we can begin to find patterns and relationships by grouping similar stocks by sector or sorting by market cap.

One of my favorite things to do right off the bat is sort by “Next Earnings Date”.  Whether you’re a long-term investor or a swing trader or somewhere in between, you always want to know when earnings could create a sudden move in either direction!

ChartList View to Analyze Technical Patterns

Once I’ve made some general assessments about the stocks on my list using the Summary View, I like to use the ChartList view to review each chart, one by one.  This view uses the alphabetical order of the titles of your charts, so make sure to add numbers before the tickers if you prefer a particular order.

Especially when I’m reviewing a longer list of tickers, I’ll use the ChartList view to go through a bunch of charts, jotting down tickers on my notepad for further review later in the day.  It’s easy to switch all of the charts to a different ChartStyle, which comes in handy if you want to switch to weekly or monthly charts, for example.  Just select one of the charts, change the ChartStyle, then look for a link called “Apply ChartStyle to All” at the bottom!

CandleGlance View to Separate Into Buckets

When I worked at a large financial institution in Boston, I would print out a bunch of charts representing a particular fund’s holdings, then spread the charts out on a conference table.  I’d look for similar patterns and structures, and start to separate the charts into bullish, bearish, and neutral piles.  From there, I could focus my attention on the most actionable charts.

The CandleGlance view provides this capability without having to print out all of those charts!  We can easily detect similar patterns and signals, helping me spend my time on the most actionable charts within a larger list.  I can’t tell you how much time this one feature has saved me in terms of efficiently breaking down a list of charts!  Don’t forget that you can customize the ChartStyle you use for this view, allowing you to apply your own proprietary charting approach to this visualization.

Performance View to Focus on Consistent Winners

What if you just want to analyze the performance of a group of stocks or ETFs, to better understand which charts have been the most and least profitable over a period of time?  The Performance View shows a series of time frames in tabular format, allowing you to focus on top and bottom periods over multiple time frames.

This can be a fantastic way to break down your portfolio, helping you better understand which positions have been helping your performance, and which ones may actually have been holding you back!

Correlation View to Understand Price Relationships

Finally, we come to one of the most underutilized features of ChartLists, and that’s the Correlation View.  This can help better define the relationship between two different data series, and identify which stocks or ETFs could help us diversify our portfolio.

I like to sort this view in ascending order based on the 20-day correlation as a starting point.  Which stocks demonstrated a very different return profile from the S&P 500?  When it feels as if all stocks are doing about the same thing, this one feature can help you quickly identify outliers and positions which could help you improve your performance through diversification.

I’ve found the ChartList capabilities to be some of the most powerful features on the StockCharts platform.  Once you get into the habit of using these incredible list management and analytical tools, I hope you’ll enjoy a greater amount of market awareness in your life!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Rua Gold Acquires Siren Gold’s Reefton Assets for AU$22 Million

Siren Gold (ASX:SNG) announced on Tuesday (November 26) that it has completed the sale of its wholly owned subsidiary, Reefton Resources, to Rua Gold’s (TSXV:RUA,OTCQQB:NZAUF)wholly owned subsidiary Reefton Acquisition.

Reefton Resources is the owner of the Reefton project in New Zealand.

The sale will establish Rua Gold as a dominant landholder in the Reefton region, with approximately 1,196 square kilometers of tenements in the historical and past-producing Reefton Goldfields, which produced over 2 million ounces at 15.8 grams per tonne gold.

According to Siren’s resource update for its Reefton project on September 17, the project’s deposits host a combined inferred JORC compliant mineral resource of 483,000 ounces of gold from ore grading 3.86 grams per tonne gold, as well as 14,500 tonnes of antimony at a grade of 1.7 percent.

Rua will also be positioned as the preeminent gold explorer in New Zealand, with a market capitalisation of approximately AU$41.9 million.

In exchange for Reefton Resources, Rua will pay Siren AU$18 million in shares and a further AU$4 million cash. The cash payments include: forgiving an AU$1 million promissory note upon signing the agreement, an AU$1 million cash payment at completion and the issue of 10,000,000 Siren shares to Rua (or its nominee) at AU$0.20 per share around the completion date.

Once the sale is complete, Siren will have a 26.1 percent stake in Rua, and Rua will hold a 7.51 percent stake in Siren. Rua will also transfer the Langdons antimony-gold project back to Siren.

“Since we listed Siren on the ASX in 2020, the vision has been to consolidate the historical Reefton belt to give it the best chance of bringing the multiple high-grade projects into a central processing hub model,” Siren Managing Director and CEO Victor Rajasooriar said.

Following this transaction, Siren will concentrate on the Sams Creek gold project and the Langdons and Queen Charlotte antimony-gold projects.

For its part, Rua will focus on the exploration and development of the combined Reefton belt. The company completed a C$8 million capital raising in July.

Siren first publicised this transaction on July 15, and the deal was approved by its shareholders on October 28.

Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Biden Admin Awards Intel US$7.9 Billion for Semiconductor Sector Growth

The Biden administration has announced a US$7.87 billion funding agreement with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) under the CHIPS Incentives Program as part of its efforts to bolster the US semiconductor manufacturing industry.

The award represents one of the most substantial semiconductor manufacturing investments facilitated by the CHIPS for America program.

Intel plans to invest over US$90 billion in the United States by the end of the decade, enhancing the US capacity for manufacturing leading-edge semiconductors. These advanced chips are integral to crucial industries such as artificial intelligence and defense systems.

The company’s expansion plan spans facilities in Arizona, New Mexico, Ohio and Oregon. The expansion is expected to generate approximately 10,000 permanent manufacturing jobs and 20,000 construction jobs across the four states involved.

The Department of Commerce’s direct funding will support Intel’s fabrication and packaging of these chips, addressing vulnerabilities in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo hailed the partnership as pivotal for revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry and securing US technological leadership.

“The CHIPS for America program will supercharge American innovation and technology and make our country more secure,” she stated in the announcement.

Meanwhile, Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger reiterated the company’s commitment to advancing semiconductor manufacturing on American soil, citing bipartisan support as a driving force behind the company’s investment strategy.

Intel’s semiconductor manufacturing process technologies, including Intel 3 and Intel 18A , are poised to contribute significantly to the US domestic semiconductor ecosystem.

CHIPS for America, part of the broader CHIPS and Science Act, is a cornerstone of the current administration’s economic agenda.

The initiative aims to re-shore critical manufacturing capabilities and stimulate economic growth, enhancing US competitiveness and addressing economic vulnerabilities.

Overall, CHIPS for America has allocated approximately US$19 billion in incentives to date, supporting projects across 20 states and facilitating the creation of an estimated 125,000 jobs.

Public investments in the semiconductor and electronics industries have played a large role in catalyzing over US$450 billion in private sector commitments in these industries since the beginning of the Biden-Harris administration.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

‘Moana 2’-led Thanksgiving box office could be best in post-pandemic era

The domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving haul since the pandemic thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a revenge-fueled gladiator.

Disney’s “Moana 2” is set to hit theaters Wednesday and generate between $120 million and $150 million in box office receipts in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday. It’ll be joined by Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” both in their second week of domestic screenings.

Box-office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily clear $200 million in ticket sales and could even become the second- or third-highest Thanksgiving period in cinematic history.

“The trifecta of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked,’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a bona fide perfect storm for movie theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.

“The holiday used to regularly see major releases combining for all-audience appeal, but that’s been a challenge for the industry to replicate in the post-pandemic era so far,” he said. “This year is much different with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor some of the biggest all-around box office results the holiday frame has ever seen.”

The Thanksgiving holiday haul hasn’t topped $200 million since 2019, according to data from Comscore. Currently, the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend is 2018′s slate, led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which generated $315 million in ticket sales combined. The second-highest haul for the holiday period was the $294.2 million secured during the same five-day period in 2013.

“Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The strength of the final few weeks of the year will determine the total annual box office revenue and its perception as either a win or a loss for the industry.”

Disney could use another animation win.

After ruling the Thanksgiving box office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it’s failed to live up to expectations with its recent string of releases.

In 2016, “Moana” opened over the Thanksgiving holiday, generating $82.1 million. The following year “Coco” took in $72.9 million during its opening, and in 2018 “Ralph Breaks the Internet” tallied $84.8 million during its debut over the five-day period. Just before the pandemic in 2019, “Frozen II” added $125 million over the Thanksgiving holiday after opening the week before to more than $130 million.

Meanwhile, “Encanto,” which arrived during the midst of the pandemic, managed to tally $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” flopped, having scooped up just $18.9 million during the holiday period in 2022, and “Wish” snared a meager $31.6 million in 2023. No Disney animated film was released over Thanksgiving in 2020.

“Moana 2” should outperform these post-pandemic releases, however. It arrives in theaters a year after the first film was named the top-streamed film aimed at kids and families. And audiences came out in droves for Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2″ over the summer. “Inside Out 2” opened to $154.2 million domestically and tallied more than $1 billion globally during its full run.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed “Wicked.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Reddit targets international users for ad growth, teases bolstered search feature

Reddit is ramping up efforts to attract more users outside of the U.S., putting countries like India and Brazil in focus as it looks to unlock new advertising opportunities, a top company executive told CNBC.

In a wide-ranging interview, Jen Wong, chief operating officer of Reddit, said other platforms have 80% to 90% of users outside of the U.S. while about half of her company’s current users are based internationally.

“So that points to a lot of our future user growth opportunity definitely outside of the U.S. and local language,” Wong told CNBC. “The opportunity, the way I think about it, is every language is an opportunity for another Reddit.”

Reddit has historically been an English-language platform, but the company is looking to expand its international reach with the help of artificial intelligence translations. This year, Reddit launched a feature that automatically translates its site into different languages.

Wong said that around 20 to 30 languages could be available by the end of the year.

Among the company’s fastest-growing markets in terms of users is the U.K., the Philippines, India and Brazil.

“India’s growing really rapidly,” Wong said. “We see a big opportunity in India.”

The Reddit COO said that India has a large English-speaking internet population, and there are lots of engaged users around topics like cricket and the Bollywood movie industry.

Wong also said Reddit has been meeting with “mods” — or moderators, who oversee content on communities on the site.

Growth in markets like India can propel Reddit to boost ad revenue, its main source of income.

International markets account for just over 17% of Reddit’s revenue currently, according to the company’s third-quarter results, despite around 50% of its users being located outside the U.S.

Wong said that Reddit first attempts cross-border advertising for international markets, such as when a European brand is looking to advertise in the U.S. Then, when Reddit hits about 10% of a country’s internet population in a country, there is an opportunity to build teams focused on local advertising — like an Indian brand advertising to Indian users.

This has not yet happened in many markets, but Reddit is keeping an eye on many of its fastest growing countries, Wong said.

Reddit users will know that it’s not always the easiest site to find what you’re looking for — a drawback that the company is now looking to change with new search tools.

During Reddit’s third-quarter earnings call last month, CEO Steve Huffman called search on the platform a “focused investment” in 2025.

Wong expanded that the company is thinking of its search feature as a way of helping users to navigate around the site to find similar topics or posts that they may have otherwise missed.

“You land on a post and but it’s almost like a dead end. But there are a lot of posts, often like that post, or there are other posts like that post in other communities. And so giving you a total view of what that looks like is a really interesting opportunity,” Wong said.

“Guiding you through Reddit as you follow that line of thinking, is how we think of the opportunity.”

Wong declined to say more except, “We’re testing a lot of things.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS