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December 8, 2024

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Fintech is Leading and Providing a Good Hunting Ground for Bullish Stock Setups

Chartists looking for stock setups can start with strong industry groups. The Fintech (FINX) is in a strong uptrend and leading, but looking extended short-term. While there is no setup currently, we can learn from past setups and apply these lessons to stocks within the group. 

FINX is both strong and extended. The chart shows FINX advancing 53.6% from November to March. It then moved into a long corrective period as the falling channel formed over the next five months. This correction ended with a breakout in late August and the ETF recorded its first new high in mid September. FINX extended further and led the market over the last four months.

Even though FINX shows no signs of weakness on the price chart, it is becoming quite extended because the 10-day EMA is over 20% above the 200-day EMA. The bottom window shows this difference using the PPO(10,200,0). I use this mostly as trend indicator. It turns bullish with a move above +3% and bearish with a move below -3%. These signal buffers reduce whipsaws and catch big trends.

With FINX looking extended, it is time to exercise some patience and wait for the next opportunity. The blue dashed lines show short-term bullish continuation patterns within the strong uptrend. These represent tradable pullbacks. We can use these examples as a guide in the future, and also look for tradable pullbacks individual fintech stocks.  

The indicator window shows %B, which quantifies the relationship between the close and the 20-day SMA. The pullbacks were quite mild as %B dipped below .50 just twice. This means the close was below the 20-day SMA, which is the middle line on the Bollinger Bands. A decline to the 20-day SMA signals a pullback within the uptrend and this is an opportunity, not a threat.

Extended or not, FINX is still a leader and still in a strong uptrend. This means fintech stocks provide a good hunting ground for bullish setups. Pullbacks and oversold conditions provide opportunities. This report continues at TrendInvestorPro where I feature a fintech stock with one such setup. Click here to see the full report and learn more. This week we featured tradable setups in over a dozen ETFs and stocks. 

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Week Ahead: Consolidation Likely As NIFTY Tests Crucial Levels; Guard Profits Mindfully

The markets closed with gains for the third week in a row as the key indices posted gains while extending their technical rebound. The Nifty had a trending week; it trended higher most of the week. The volatility was largely absent, but the Indices stayed quite choppy on most days except the last day, where it remained flat. The volatility stayed largely subdued; the India VIX retraced by 1.98% to 14.14 on a weekly note. The trading range stayed wider; the Nifty oscillated in an 849-point range over the past five sessions. The headline index finally closed with a net weekly gain of 546.70 points (+2.27%).

The markets have paused themselves at a crucial juncture. The Nifty has closed above the 50-DMA, which is presently at 24548. It is just a notch below the 100-DMA at 24707. This level also coincides with the 20-week MA placed at 24720 on the weekly timeframe. So, unless the Nifty closes well above 24720, we have to fairly take the zone of 24700-24750 as an immediate important resistance for the markets on a closing basis. For this technical rebound to extend, moving past and staying above 24750 would be necessary for the markets. On the other hand, the Nifty has rebounded off the 50-week MA; this level, placed at 23432, is the most crucial support for the Nifty if it has to keep the current primary trend intact.

Monday is likely to see a quiet start to the week; the levels of 24750 and 24900 are likely to act as resistance levels for the Nifty. The supports come in at 24450 and 24300 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 55.52; it is neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD stays bearish and below its signal line. The PPO remains negative.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that the Nifty has completed a painful process of mean reversion. At one point, the Index was trading over 10% above the 50-week MA; the current retracement saw the Nifty testing this level a couple of weeks ago. The 50-week MA test at 23463 offered strong support, and the market rebounded from those levels. Presently, the Index has closed just below the 100-DMA and 20-week MA.

The up move after the Nifty took support at the 50-week MA has seen the Index rallying by over 1200 points. There is a possibility that Nifty may consolidate again for some time before it extends the current move. The banking and financial space is exhibiting strong relative strength. While this may continue, sectors like IT, Auto, Realty, etc., will likely show good momentum over the coming days. However, the Index is near its crucial resistance zone; this makes it necessary to guard profits at current levels. It is important that instead of chasing all up moves, the prudent thing to do would be to mindfully protect gains and stay invested in the stocks showing improvement in their relative strength. A cautious approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG shows that the Nifty Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. It is expected to relatively outperform the broader markets along with the IT, Services Sector, and Financial Services Indices that are also present in this quadrant.

The Nifty Midcap 100 index is improving relative momentum while being placed inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Pharma Index is also inside the weakened quadrant.

The Nifty FMCG, Auto, Energy, Commodities, and Infrastructure Indices are in the lagging quadrant. The Nifty PSE Index is also in the lagging quadrant; however, it is improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Media Index has rolled back inside the improving quadrant. Besides this, the Metal, Realty, and PSU Bank Indices are also placed inside the improving quadrant.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18%

Stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as investors gear up for the final month of 2024. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.18%, alongside declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, which dropped 0.13% and 0.17%, respectively. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly reports on manufacturing and construction spending, ahead of this week’s key labor data releases.

November was a standout month for equities, with the S&P 500 futures rallying to reflect the index’s best monthly performance of the year. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved all-time highs during Friday’s shortened trading session, with the Dow briefly surpassing 45,000. Small-cap stocks also saw robust gains, with the Russell 2000 index surging over 10% in November, buoyed by optimism around potential tax cuts.

As trading kicks off in December, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in Europe, where France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.77% amid political concerns, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 showed smaller declines.

S&P 500 futures will likely continue to act as a key barometer for market sentiment, particularly as traders assess the impact of upcoming economic data and global market developments.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

This 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a recent trend where the index attempted to break above the resistance level near 6,044.17 but retraced slightly to close at 6,032.39, reflecting a minor decline of 0.03% in the session. The candlestick pattern indicates some indecisiveness after a steady upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

On the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, the value sits at 62.07, having declined from the overbought zone above 70 earlier. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be cooling off, and traders could anticipate a short-term consolidation or slight pullback. However, with RSI above 50, the overall trend remains positive, favoring buyers.

The index’s recent low of 5,944.36 marks a key support level, while the high at 6,044.17 could act as resistance. If the price sustains above the 6,020 level and RSI stabilizes without breaking below 50, the index could attempt another rally. Conversely, a drop below 6,020 could indicate a bearish shift.

In conclusion, the index displays potential for continued gains, but traders should watch RSI levels and price action near the support and resistance zones for confirmation.

The post Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7%

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by strong performances from Salesforce and Marvell Technology, following upbeat quarterly earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 215 points (0.5%), while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced by 0.7%.

Salesforce surged 12% after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, showcasing robust demand in the enterprise software sector. Meanwhile, chipmaker Marvell jumped 14% after surpassing earnings estimates and providing optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry.

This movement follows a mixed session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with small gains, while the Dow dipped slightly. The broader market has experienced a modest start to December, contrasting with November’s robust rally, but analysts anticipate a resurgence in momentum. LPL Financial’s George Smith pointed out that December historically sees strong market performance, particularly in the latter half of the month.

However, economic data introduced some caution. ADP’s report revealed that private payrolls grew by just 146,000 in November, missing estimates of 163,000. This signals potential softness in the labor market, with investors now awaiting Friday’s November jobs report for further clarity.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

Based on the provided stock chart, which appears to be a 15-minute candlestick chart for the S&P 500 Index, here’s a brief analysis:

The chart shows a clear upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish momentum over the analyzed period. The index has steadily climbed from a low of approximately 5,855 to a recent high of 6,053.58, suggesting strong buying interest.

Key resistance is observed near 6,050-6,053 levels, as the price has struggled to break above this zone in the most recent sessions. If the index breaches this level with strong volume, it could lead to further upward movement. Conversely, failure to break out may lead to a pullback, with potential support around the 6,000 psychological level and 5,980, where consolidation occurred previously.

The candlestick patterns show relatively small wicks, indicating limited volatility, which could imply steady market confidence. However, the bullish rally could be overextended, warranting caution for traders, especially if any negative catalysts emerge.

In summary, the short-term trend is bullish, but traders should monitor resistance levels and volume for signs of a breakout or reversal. It’s also essential to watch broader market factors, as indices are often influenced by macroeconomic data and sentiment.

The post S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.