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December 19, 2024

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The Big Divergence in Bullish Percents

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have been holding steady into this week’s Fed meeting, warning signs under the hood have suggested one of two things is likely to happen going into Q1.  Either a leadership rotation is amiss, with mega cap growth stocks potentially taking a back seat to other sectors, or a risk-off rotation is coming where investors rotate to defensive positions.

A quick review of the Bullish Percent Indexes can help us review how the resilience of the markets can be attributed to the continued strength of the Magnificent 7 and related names.  Today we’ll compare breadth conditions for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and update some key levels to watch into year-end and beyond.

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is a breadth indicator driven by point and figure charts.  This data series basically reviews 500 point & figure charts and shows what percent of the stocks have most recently generated a buy signal.  I’ve found the Bullish Percent indexes to be most valuable around major market tops, because a downturn in a breadth indicator such as this can only happen if lots of stocks are pulling back in a fairly significant fashion.

Here we’re showing the S&P 500 index for the last 12 months along with the Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 as well as the BPI for the Nasdaq 100.  Note that toward the end of September, the S&P 500’s BPI was around 80% while the Nasdaq’s was around 70%.  

Going into this week, the S&P 500’s BPI had pushed down to around 60%, while the Nasdaq 100’s BPI was still around that 70% level.  This change of character is due to the fact that large cap growth stocks have remained largely constructive, while some of the most important breakdowns we’ve witnessed in recent weeks have been in more value-oriented sectors.

This divergence between the two Bullish Percent Indexes tells us that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have not remained strong because of broad support from a variety of sectors, but more because of concentrated support from a limited number of growth sectors like technology.

As the market is reeling this week in reaction to the Fed’s expectations for further rate cuts into early 2025, we can see that both of the Bullish Percent Indexes have now pushed below the 50% level for the first time since the August market correction.  This means we need to focus on a key “line in the sand” for the S&P 500 and to attempt to better define market conditions.

The SPX 5850 level has been the most important support level in my work, based on the fact that a break below that key pivot point would mean the S&P 500 has made a lower low.  We haven’t seen that sort of short-term weakness since the August pullback.  While the initial downturn post-Fed has pushed the SPX down toward the 5850 level, we would need to see a confirmed break below that point to unlock potential further downside targets.

Our latest video on StockCharts TV breaks down the Bullish Percent Index chart above, along with four key stocks reporting earnings this week.  While those charts will all most likely be affected by this week’s Fed announcement, earnings still matter!  I will be watching important levels of support in all four of those names, and I’d encourage you to leverage the alert capabilities on StockCharts to ensure you don’t miss the next big move!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Gianni Kovacevic: 3 Copper Stocks for Speculators, Watch These Metals Under Trump

Investor and author Gianni Kovacevic shared his thoughts on copper market dynamics, saying that while the long-term trend is up, speculators can create significant shorter-term prices moves.

He also mentioned three copper companies he’s interested in right now: CopperNico Metals (TSX:COPR,OTCQB:CPPMF), Entree Resources (TSX:ETG,OTCQB:ERLFF) and Horizon Copper (TSXV:HCU,OTCQX:HNCUF).

In addition to copper, Kovacevic spoke about the growing opportunity he sees in lithium, highlighting how major miners like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) are increasing their exposure to this important battery metal.

‘We are going to have a supply shortage. Not in the distant future — in the next 18 to 36 months it’ll be a front-page story, and it will be dovetailed with … oil and gas. And with that comes the oil and gas investor,’ he said.

Explaining his view, Kovacevic said oil and gas companies are becoming interested in direct lithium extraction.

Watch the interview above for more from Kovacevic on copper and lithium, as well as Donald Trump’s second term.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18%

Stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as investors gear up for the final month of 2024. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.18%, alongside declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, which dropped 0.13% and 0.17%, respectively. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly reports on manufacturing and construction spending, ahead of this week’s key labor data releases.

November was a standout month for equities, with the S&P 500 futures rallying to reflect the index’s best monthly performance of the year. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved all-time highs during Friday’s shortened trading session, with the Dow briefly surpassing 45,000. Small-cap stocks also saw robust gains, with the Russell 2000 index surging over 10% in November, buoyed by optimism around potential tax cuts.

As trading kicks off in December, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in Europe, where France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.77% amid political concerns, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 showed smaller declines.

S&P 500 futures will likely continue to act as a key barometer for market sentiment, particularly as traders assess the impact of upcoming economic data and global market developments.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

This 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a recent trend where the index attempted to break above the resistance level near 6,044.17 but retraced slightly to close at 6,032.39, reflecting a minor decline of 0.03% in the session. The candlestick pattern indicates some indecisiveness after a steady upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

On the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, the value sits at 62.07, having declined from the overbought zone above 70 earlier. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be cooling off, and traders could anticipate a short-term consolidation or slight pullback. However, with RSI above 50, the overall trend remains positive, favoring buyers.

The index’s recent low of 5,944.36 marks a key support level, while the high at 6,044.17 could act as resistance. If the price sustains above the 6,020 level and RSI stabilizes without breaking below 50, the index could attempt another rally. Conversely, a drop below 6,020 could indicate a bearish shift.

In conclusion, the index displays potential for continued gains, but traders should watch RSI levels and price action near the support and resistance zones for confirmation.

The post Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7%

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by strong performances from Salesforce and Marvell Technology, following upbeat quarterly earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 215 points (0.5%), while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced by 0.7%.

Salesforce surged 12% after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, showcasing robust demand in the enterprise software sector. Meanwhile, chipmaker Marvell jumped 14% after surpassing earnings estimates and providing optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry.

This movement follows a mixed session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with small gains, while the Dow dipped slightly. The broader market has experienced a modest start to December, contrasting with November’s robust rally, but analysts anticipate a resurgence in momentum. LPL Financial’s George Smith pointed out that December historically sees strong market performance, particularly in the latter half of the month.

However, economic data introduced some caution. ADP’s report revealed that private payrolls grew by just 146,000 in November, missing estimates of 163,000. This signals potential softness in the labor market, with investors now awaiting Friday’s November jobs report for further clarity.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

Based on the provided stock chart, which appears to be a 15-minute candlestick chart for the S&P 500 Index, here’s a brief analysis:

The chart shows a clear upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish momentum over the analyzed period. The index has steadily climbed from a low of approximately 5,855 to a recent high of 6,053.58, suggesting strong buying interest.

Key resistance is observed near 6,050-6,053 levels, as the price has struggled to break above this zone in the most recent sessions. If the index breaches this level with strong volume, it could lead to further upward movement. Conversely, failure to break out may lead to a pullback, with potential support around the 6,000 psychological level and 5,980, where consolidation occurred previously.

The candlestick patterns show relatively small wicks, indicating limited volatility, which could imply steady market confidence. However, the bullish rally could be overextended, warranting caution for traders, especially if any negative catalysts emerge.

In summary, the short-term trend is bullish, but traders should monitor resistance levels and volume for signs of a breakout or reversal. It’s also essential to watch broader market factors, as indices are often influenced by macroeconomic data and sentiment.

The post S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Starbucks union votes to authorize strike ahead of last scheduled bargaining session in 2024

Starbucks Workers United said Tuesday that 98% of union baristas have voted to authorize a strike as they seek a contract with the coffee giant.

Bargaining delegates are set to return to negotiations with Starbucks on Tuesday in the last scheduled session of the year with the goal of agreeing on a “foundational framework.” Starbucks and Workers United have spent hundreds of hours this year at the bargaining table, and both sides have put forward dozens of tentative agreements, the union said in a press release.

However, hundreds of unfair labor practice cases still have not been settled, and the union said Starbucks has not yet proposed a comprehensive package that would address barista pay and other benefits.

In a statement to CNBC, Starbucks disputed the union’s characterization and said the company remains committed to reaching a final framework agreement.

“It is disappointing that the union is considering a strike rather than focusing on what have been extremely productive negotiations. Since April we’ve scheduled and attended more than eight multi-day bargaining sessions where we’ve reached thirty meaningful agreements on dozens of topics Workers United delegates told us were important to them, including many economic issues,” the company said in the statement.

The strike authorization shows that relations between the two sides may again be cooling, after thawing in late February when both parties said they found a “constructive path forward” though mediation. Prior to that point, Starbucks had fought the union boom that swept across its company-owned locations for more than two years. The company’s attempts to curb the union movement led to backlash from some consumers and lawmakers, culminating with former CEO Howard Schultz testifying on Capitol Hill.

Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol, who joined the company in September, committed to bargaining in good faith in a letter addressed to the union in his first weeks on the job.

Niccol announced on Monday that the company would double its paid parental leave, starting in March. However, baristas will reportedly receive a smaller annual pay hike next year than they have in previous years, following a sales slump at its U.S. locations.

More than 500 company-owned Starbucks cafes have voted to unionize under Workers United since the first elections that took place in Buffalo three years ago.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Grubhub to pay $25M to settle charges that it misled diners and drivers about costs and pay

Grubhub will pay $25 million to settle charges it misled customers about the cost of their delivery and drivers about how much they could earn on the food-delivery platform.

The Federal Trade Commission and the attorney general for the state of Illinois accused Chicago-based Grubhub of engaging ‘in an array of unlawful practices’ designed to ‘deceive’ diners and workers alike about the cost of doing business on the platform.

The agencies said they had uncovered messages that demonstrated Grubhub’s allegedly illicit tactics, including an internal message from a former executive stating that the tactic of adding service fees in a way that was “misleading, eroding trust,” and “truly more expensive” for consumers.

The upshot was often a final price sometimes more than double what it originally advertised to a platform user, the agencies said.

Grubhub also allegedly engaged in false advertising to attract drivers, citing hourly pay rates ‘well above what drivers could realistically expect to earn,’ according to a release accompanying the civil complaint.

Finally, Grubhub falsely advertised restaurants on its platform that had not signed up with it. According to the complaint, Grubhub has, over the course of its existence, as many as 325,000 unaffiliated restaurants on its platform, the agencies said.

In addition to the settlement payment, Grubhub must also make changes to its platform that include telling consumers the full cost of delivery, honestly advertising pay for drivers, and only listing restaurants that have given their consent.

“Our investigation found that Grubhub tricked its customers, deceived its drivers, and unfairly damaged the reputation and revenues of restaurants that did not partner with Grubhub — all in order to drive scale and accelerate growth,” FTC Chair Lina M. Khan said in a statement.

“Today’s action holds Grubhub to account, putting an end to these illegal practices and securing nearly $25 million for the people cheated by Grubhub’s tactics. There is no ‘gig platform’ exemption to the laws on the books.”

In a statement, Grubhub acknowledged the settlement and said it would make changes to its operations, but denied the charges.

‘While we categorically deny the allegations made by the FTC, many of which are wrong, misleading or no longer applicable to our business, we believe settling this matter is in the best interest of Grubhub and allows us to move forward,’ it said.

The agencies had sought a $140 million judgment against the company, but reduced it to what Grubhub is able to pay, the agencies said. If Grubhub is found to have misrepresented its financial position, the full penalty will apply, they said.

Grubhub is set to be sold to Wonder Group, a food delivery and takeout service headed by Marc Lore, the former head of Walmart’s eCommerce unit.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS