Archive

December 31, 2024

Browsing

There are a number of effective swing trading systems being used today. Let’s explore one that is popular among Wyckoffians. It uses two inputs: Point and Figure charts and volume. Let’s review this system with a case study of Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW).

As markets are fractal, Accumulation and Distribution structures form in daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. Swing trading structures typically form on daily charts that can be identified with 1-box Point & Figure charts and daily vertical bar charts.

Charles Schwab Corp. forms a Swing Trading Accumulation structure between July and October. In July climactic selling (SC) volume ends the decline, and an Automatic Rally (AR) sets the support and resistance of a range-bound condition to follow. Subsequent volume on rallies and reactions tells the tale of latent Accumulation. This chart is rich with Wyckoffian principles, and it has been marked up for your study and evaluation. Let’s turn our attention to the PnF chart to demonstrate how much useful information is present for Swing Trading.

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) Vertical Chart Study

Swing PnF Case Study

Charles Schwab Corp. Swing Trading Case Study. 1-Box PnF

A 1-box PnF chart, properly constructed, will characterize the essential elements of the vertical chart. Note how the PnF strips out much of the noise and highlights the critical chart features. I often hear that traders find volume easier to read and interpret on the PnF chart therefore it is suggested that all PnF charts be plotted with volume. A key feature of PnF charts is the estimation of the price objective determined by the size and structure of the Accumulation. There is no other technique for estimating price objectives as effectively as horizontal PnF counting. PnF is a centuries old, tried and true approach to evaluating and trading financial instruments.

For swing trading purposes, a 1-box reversal PnF is generated using ‘Traditional Scaling’. The up and down swings are clearly revealed with this method. With 1-box PnF the horizontal structure is well defined and the volume patterns are illuminating.

Chart Notes:

  • Selling Climax (SC) exceeds the Distribution count and finds support at $61. An Automatic Rally (AR) immediately follows and demonstrates emerging demand. A Secondary Test (ST) back to $61, which holds, and confirms this level to be the Composite Operator’s ‘Value Zone’. Volume declines on each reaction back to $61 ST level (support).
  • Volume expands on each rally (column of X’s) as the Accumulation matures to conclusion. Lower volume on declines and higher volume on the rally columns reveal that supply is diminishing and absorption has occurred. Higher volume on the rising columns is evidence of new demand by institutions. Accumulation is nearly complete.
  • The pullback to the LPS / BU (see vertical chart) produces a higher low. The turn off that low can be bought with a stop below support. The next entry level is the jump above $65 resistance with a stop below the LPS.
  • The price objective generated by the horizontal Accumulation is estimated by the PnF. There are 17 columns of count producing $17 of upside price objective (17 columns x $1-scale x 1-point reversal = $17). The percent potential of this swing trade is $17 from the $64 count line ($17/$64 = 26.6%). The price objective range is estimated by adding $17 to the $61 low of the Accumulation and the $64 count line. Producing a count range of $78 / $81.
  • The Buying Climax is reached at $82. Thereafter $83 is resistance and a Swing Distribution forms in this price zone. When the Swing PnF count objective is attained, profits are taken. In this example the local Buying Climax surge produces an ideal selling zone.

Campaign PnF Case Study

Charles Schwab Corp. Campaign PnF Case Study. 3-Box Method

Stepping out to the larger timeframe is essential. Please study this 3-box reversal PnF. It reaches back into 2022. A Campaign PnF Count Accumulation has potential objectives of up to $101 / $105. Also, the prior high is $83 which happens to be in the area of the Swing PnF price objective and natural resistance. Be on the alert for the generation of a new Swing PnF count structure in the months ahead. Often these Swing counts will coincide with the higher Campaign PnF counts. We will be watching.

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

A Very Happy and Prosperous 2025 to You and Yours!

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Announcement

Wyckoff Analytics will launch the Spring Semester of their legendary Wyckoff Trading Courses (WTC). The first session of WTC-1 is Complimentary (Click Here to Register for the Free Session). To learn more about these courses and other offerings Click Here.

It’s an interesting market day with the market moving lower despite positive seasonality. Natural Gas (UNG) broke out in a big way up over 15% at the time of writing. Is it ready to continue its big run higher?

Carl took the day off so Erin gave us the review of the signal tables and market charts. She then gave us her perspective on the Natural Gas (UNG) chart. As of writing, we have determined that the big move is due to geopolitical tensions over the expiration of LNG exports with Russia for Europe. This could mean more exports and demand for US Natural Gas.

Erin then covered Sector Rotation and walked us through all of the sector charts “under the hood”. No sectors currently have rising momentum. All Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) are in decline setting up for a very difficult January.

Try out any of the DP products for two weeks for free using Coupon Code: DPTRIAL2.

01:40 DP Signal Tables

04:38 Market Overview (including Bitcoin, Yields, Dollar, Gold and more)

24:40 Questions

26:52 Natural Gas (UNG)

33:04 Sector Rotation Overview

35:02 Magnificent Seven

41:37 Sector Chart Review Under the Hood

50:13 Symbol Requests

Join us LIVE in the trading room on Mondays at Noon ET by registering once to attend: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g#/registration


The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!


Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:


Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!


Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 Subscribe HERE!


Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin


(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.


Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules


Looking at the resource sector, Martin, who also hosts the Jay Martin Show on YouTube, said the current decade has been defined by chaos and uncertainty, with no signs of a slowdown any time soon.

With that in mind, his macro thesis on commodities remains steadfast, and he’s watching three key drivers.

The first is geopolitics, which Martin said now matters more than it ever has before.

‘Countries that used to share resources aren’t sharing them like they used to. And when the supply of something becomes uncertain, the price of that thing goes up. That’s fueled a lot of the commodity prices that we’ve seen,’ he said.

Martin also pointed to a lack of investment in the mining industry as important.

‘These two forces butting up against each other makes for a very bullish case,’ he explained.

He also pointed to copper’s bullish supply/demand setup as a scenario that could play out for other metals as well — while the balance has been fairly consistent for decades, it’s now looking like supply is set to fall short.

‘You can take that blueprint and apply it to silver and nickel and many other commodities,’ Martin said.

When it comes to VRIC, there will be three main themes: geopolitics, macro finance and capital allocation in mining. He’s planning to bring together experts who can speak on those topics, and said more than 100 keynote speakers will be taking the stage. Three hundred mining companies are also expected to attend, as well as over 9,000 investors.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Copper was trading on the COMEX at under US$4 per pound at the beginning of 2024, but by May 21, the red metal’s price had surged to a record high of US$5.11 per pound.

Price momentum at the start of the year was owed to several factors, including increasing demand from energy transition sectors, bottlenecks at Chinese refiners and near-zero copper treatment charges.

The price was volatile through the second and third quarters, slipping back below US$4 per pound before soaring above US$4.50 at the end of Q3. Read on for more on how copper performed in 2024, from prices to supply and demand.

Copper price in Q4

Copper started the fourth quarter of the year on a strong note. On October 2, the metal reached its quarterly high of US$4.60 before starting a month-long slide to US$4.31 on October 31.

Volatility was the story at the start of November. Copper soared to US$4.45 on November 5 before dropping to US$4.22 on November 6, then spiked to US$4.41 on November 7; finally, it crashed to US$4.05 on November 15.

Copper price, Q4 2024.

Chart via Trading Economics.

While copper did see a couple of rallies as the year ended, it only briefly broke through resistance of US$4.20 from December 9 to 11 before settling toward the US$4 mark at the end of the month.

As of December 23, the copper price was sitting at US$4.02.

Copper concentrate market to stay tight

In an October report, Fastmarkets predicts that the concentrate market will remain tight in 2025.

This tightness will continue to impact refiner treatment charges. Though they are expected to rebound to around US$20 to US$30 per metric ton (MT), they will still be short of the US$80 mark reached in 2023.

The situation has become more challenging as new operations, particularly in China, expand capacity in 2024. Fastmarkets anticipates no change in the situation in 2025, as new smelters are set to come online in China, Indonesia and India. The additional capacity will see more refiners fighting for the available supply.

The research firm says several other factors are contributing to copper concentrate shortages, including the loss of material from First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,NYSE:FM) Cobre Panama mine after it was ordered shut down in November 2023. Other miners that have cut their production forecasts are also adding to supply woes.

For example, Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) revised its copper production guidance when it released its third quarter results on October 23. In its release, Teck indicates that the updated range now stands at 420,000 to 455,000 MT, down from the 435,000 to 500,000 MT estimated at the start of the year.

The company said the reduction was due to challenges with labor availability and problems with autonomous systems in its new haul trucks at its Highland Valley mine in BC, Canada.

China’s economy dragging on copper

A significant headwind for copper at the end of 2024 has been the continued challenges posed by China’s faltering economy. Although the country has introduced stimulus measures, they have made little difference.

The most recent stimulus announcement came on December 24, when the Chinese government announced it would issue US$411 billion worth of special treasury bonds in 2025. This package would be the highest on record, and would represent an increase over the US$137 billion issued in the past year.

The move follows President Xi Jinping’s keynote address at the country’s annual economic policy meeting on December 11 and 12. Xi said at the time that the economy was stable, and that the government would be working to boost consumption through looser monetary policy and more active fiscal policy. Few details were given on how the country would achieve its goals, and the US$411 billion debt injection could be the first sign of that policy.

In addition, in September, the Chinese government announced measures to increase credit, support cities in purchasing unsold homes and restructure debt. These efforts have failed to turn around the world’s second largest economy.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and any shift in the strength of the nation’s economy will have implications for the price trajectory of base metal.

How did copper perform for the rest of the year?

Copper price in Q1

Copper supply was in focus in Q1 as First Quantum provided an update on its Cobre Panama mine.

The mine was forced to close at the end of 2023 after the Panamanian Supreme Court walked back a company-friendly deal initially approved in October 2023.

At the beginning of 2024, First Quantum pursued several avenues to resolve the issue and reopen the mine, including arbitration. It also waited for the results of Panama’s May election in hopes of more mining-friendly leadership.

Copper price in Q2

The second quarter was dominated by news of output curtailments at Chinese smelting operations.

The cuts came as lower production levels from copper miners began to stress treatment charges at refiners as they competed for the limited availability of copper concentrate.

In turn, this pushed the price of copper prices higher at major exchanges.

“So there’s the cathode price. That’s stated in the LME, and Shanghai and the COMEX in the states. But if the market is tight in any of those regions locally, you will see a cathode premium … over the price of the copper,” he said. “People are willing to pay more to incentivize people that have copper inventory to release it into the market.’

Copper price in Q3

Copper supply and demand both saw growth during Q3.

The International Copper Study Group reported in an October 21 release that mined production of copper had increased by 2 percent year-on-year to 14.86 million MT during the first eight months of 2024.

Much was owed to 3 percent growth from Chile, with increases at BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida mine, as well as the Collahausi mine, which is a joint venture between Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) and Mitsui (OTC Pink:MITSF,TSE:8031).

Output from the Democratic Republic of Congo increased 11 percent, while Indonesia’s production rose 22 percent.

At the same time, demand increased slightly by 2.5 percent. Much of the additional demand came from 2.7 percent growth in Asian markets, which includes a 0.5 percent increase in Chinese refined copper imports.

Investor takeaway

The copper market has been tight all year, with new demand accelerating beyond new mine supply.

This demand growth is expected to continue as the world transitions from fossil fuels to renewable technologies that require more copper, like wind and solar. However, copper demand is still constrained by weakness in the Chinese economy, particularly in its housing sector, which is an important driver of global demand for the metal.

Ultimately, in the longer term, copper supply will be lacking from new projects and expanded production to meet demand. The base metal is expected enter a supply deficit over the next few years.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as investors gear up for the final month of 2024. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.18%, alongside declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, which dropped 0.13% and 0.17%, respectively. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly reports on manufacturing and construction spending, ahead of this week’s key labor data releases.

November was a standout month for equities, with the S&P 500 futures rallying to reflect the index’s best monthly performance of the year. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved all-time highs during Friday’s shortened trading session, with the Dow briefly surpassing 45,000. Small-cap stocks also saw robust gains, with the Russell 2000 index surging over 10% in November, buoyed by optimism around potential tax cuts.

As trading kicks off in December, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in Europe, where France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.77% amid political concerns, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 showed smaller declines.

S&P 500 futures will likely continue to act as a key barometer for market sentiment, particularly as traders assess the impact of upcoming economic data and global market developments.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

This 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a recent trend where the index attempted to break above the resistance level near 6,044.17 but retraced slightly to close at 6,032.39, reflecting a minor decline of 0.03% in the session. The candlestick pattern indicates some indecisiveness after a steady upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

On the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, the value sits at 62.07, having declined from the overbought zone above 70 earlier. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be cooling off, and traders could anticipate a short-term consolidation or slight pullback. However, with RSI above 50, the overall trend remains positive, favoring buyers.

The index’s recent low of 5,944.36 marks a key support level, while the high at 6,044.17 could act as resistance. If the price sustains above the 6,020 level and RSI stabilizes without breaking below 50, the index could attempt another rally. Conversely, a drop below 6,020 could indicate a bearish shift.

In conclusion, the index displays potential for continued gains, but traders should watch RSI levels and price action near the support and resistance zones for confirmation.

The post Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by strong performances from Salesforce and Marvell Technology, following upbeat quarterly earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 215 points (0.5%), while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced by 0.7%.

Salesforce surged 12% after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, showcasing robust demand in the enterprise software sector. Meanwhile, chipmaker Marvell jumped 14% after surpassing earnings estimates and providing optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry.

This movement follows a mixed session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with small gains, while the Dow dipped slightly. The broader market has experienced a modest start to December, contrasting with November’s robust rally, but analysts anticipate a resurgence in momentum. LPL Financial’s George Smith pointed out that December historically sees strong market performance, particularly in the latter half of the month.

However, economic data introduced some caution. ADP’s report revealed that private payrolls grew by just 146,000 in November, missing estimates of 163,000. This signals potential softness in the labor market, with investors now awaiting Friday’s November jobs report for further clarity.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

Based on the provided stock chart, which appears to be a 15-minute candlestick chart for the S&P 500 Index, here’s a brief analysis:

The chart shows a clear upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish momentum over the analyzed period. The index has steadily climbed from a low of approximately 5,855 to a recent high of 6,053.58, suggesting strong buying interest.

Key resistance is observed near 6,050-6,053 levels, as the price has struggled to break above this zone in the most recent sessions. If the index breaches this level with strong volume, it could lead to further upward movement. Conversely, failure to break out may lead to a pullback, with potential support around the 6,000 psychological level and 5,980, where consolidation occurred previously.

The candlestick patterns show relatively small wicks, indicating limited volatility, which could imply steady market confidence. However, the bullish rally could be overextended, warranting caution for traders, especially if any negative catalysts emerge.

In summary, the short-term trend is bullish, but traders should monitor resistance levels and volume for signs of a breakout or reversal. It’s also essential to watch broader market factors, as indices are often influenced by macroeconomic data and sentiment.

The post S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Google’s blowout earnings report in April, which sparked the biggest rally in Alphabet shares since 2015 and pushed its market cap past $2 trillion for the first time, tempered fear that the company was falling behind in artificial intelligence.

As executives enthusiastically talked about the results with Google’s employees at an all-hands meeting the following week, it was clear that Wall Street viewed things differently than the company’s workforce.

“We’ve noticed a significant decline in morale, increased distrust and a disconnect between leadership and the workforce,” one employee wrote in a comment that was read by executives at the meeting. “How does leadership plan to address these concerns and regain the trust, morale and cohesion that have been foundational to our company’s success?”

The comment was highly rated on an internal forum.

“Despite the company’s stellar performance and record earnings, many Googlers have not received meaningful compensation increases” another top-rated employee question read.

That meeting set the stage for what would be a year of contrasting takes from the company’s vocal workforce. As Google faced some of the most intense pressure its experienced since going public two decades ago, so too did CEO Sundar Pichai, who took the helm in 2015.

Pichai oversaw a steady stream of revenue growth this year in key areas like search ads and cloud. The company rolled out groundbreaking technologies, rounded out its AI strategy despite a slew of embarrassing product incidents and saw its stock price rise more than 40% as of Thursday’s close, ahead of the S&P 500 but trailing rivals Meta and Amazon.

Over the course of 2024, many staffers questioned Pichai’s vision following product mishaps in the first half of the year as well as internal shake-ups and layoffs, according to conversations with more than a dozen employees, audio recordings and internal correspondence. 

As the second half of the year progressed and Google rolled out a number of eye-catching AI products, Pichai’s standing improved, though some skepticism remains, sources told CNBC.

After the introduction of ChatGPT in late 2022, the tech industry saw an influx of AI products from Microsoft, with its Copilot AI assistant, and Meta, which placed its Meta AI chatbot in the search functions of its apps, as well as from hot startups like OpenAI and Perplexity.

The popularity of those tools has eaten into Google’s grip on U.S. search. The company’s share of the search advertising market is expected to dip below 50% in 2025, which would be the first time falling below that mark in more than a decade, according to research firm eMarketer.

Google responded to the pressures from new AI tools with offerings of its own. The company in 2024 rebranded its family of AI models as Gemini and released a number of products that were well received. But in its scramble to play catch-up, the company also released a pair of AI products that initially proved embarrassing. 

In February, Google launched Imagen 2, which turned user prompts into AI-generated images. Immediately after it was introduced, the product came under scrutiny for historical inaccuracies discovered by users. Notably, when one user asked it to show a German soldier in 1943, the tool depicted a racially diverse set of soldiers wearing German military uniforms of the era. 

The company pulled the feature, and Pichai told employees the company had “offended our users and shown bias,” according to a memo. Google said it would take a few weeks to relaunch Imagen 2, but it ended up being six months before it was revived as Imagen 3 in August. 

“We definitely messed up on the image generation,” Google co-founder Sergey Brin told a small crowd at a hacker house in March, in a video posted to YouTube. “It was mostly due to just not thorough testing.” 

The launch of AI Overview in May caused a similar reaction. 

That product showed users AI summaries atop Google’s traditional search results. Pichai hyped the product, calling it the biggest change to search in 25 years. Once again, users were quick to find problems.

When asked “How many rocks should I eat each day,” the tool said, “According to UC Berkeley geologists, people should eat at least one small rock a day.” AI Overview also listed the vitamins and digestive benefits of rocks.

Google responded by saying it would add more guardrails to AI Overview for health-related queries but said the mistakes weren’t hallucinations, and were rather just rare edge cases. Search Vice President Liz Reid told employees at an all-hands meeting in June that AI Overview’s launch shouldn’t discourage them from taking risks. 

“We should act with urgency,” Reid said. “When we find new problems, we should do the extensive testing but we won’t always find everything and that just means that we respond.”

Beyond its AI blunders, Google also saw its greatest regulatory challenges to date in 2024.

In August, a federal judge ruled that the company illegally holds a monopoly in the search market. The Justice Department in November asked that Google be forced to divest its Chrome internet browser unit as a remedy for the ruling

The DOJ’s request represents the agency’s most aggressive attempt to break up a tech company since its antitrust case against Microsoft, which reached a settlement in 2001.

The remedies are expected to be decided next summer, and Google has said it will appeal, likely dragging out the situation a couple more years, but the company faces more antitrust hurdles. 

In a separate case, the DOJ accused the company of illegally dominating online ad technology. That trial closed in September and awaits a judge ruling. In October, a U.S. judge issued a permanent injunction that will force Google to offer alternatives to its Google Play app store for Android phones. After the ruling in October, Google won a temporary pause on the ruling, meaning it won’t have to open up Android to more app stores yet.

Amid the external pressure, Google notched some notable victories particularly toward the end of 2024, leading to a more positive sentiment from people within and outside the company.

Google successfully launched its most powerful suite of new Gemini models that underpin all of the company’s AI products, including its lightweight model Gemini Flash, which has been popular among developers. YouTube’s combined ad and subscription revenue over the past four quarters surpassed $50 billion. 

In the third quarter, Google saw the fastest-growing cloud business across the big tech players, up 35% over last year, with operating margins of 17%. The company has also seen double-digit revenue growth for each of the past four quarters and launched Trillium, its powerful sixth generation Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, which were also found to have powered Apple’s AI models. 

Despite the blunders, AI Overview reached nearly 1 billion monthly users by the end of October. Demand for AI software has also driven consistent growth for the company’s cloud infrastructure. And Google launched an impressive video generation product, Veo 2, this month as well as an updated AI note-taking product, NotebookLM.

Beyond AI, Google in December announced Willow, a chip the company calls its biggest step in the march toward commercially viable quantum computing. The Waymo self-driving car unit was also a bright spot, expanding its robotaxi service to three cities and laying the groundwork for even more expansion in 2025. The company has delivered 4 million fully autonomous rides this year, with plans to commercially launch in Austin, Texas, and Atlanta next year.  

But as Pichai approaches a decade running Google and starts his sixth year as CEO of parent Alphabet, questions remain about his ability to guide the company into the future.

Internally, employees routinely criticize leadership on the company’s Memegen messaging board, and some have aired their grievances publicly. 

“Google does not have one single visionary leader,” a Google software engineer wrote in a LinkedIn post earlier this year that received more than 8,500 reactions. “Not a one. From the C-suite to the SVPs to the VPs, they are all profoundly boring and glassy-eyed.”

In October, Google announced it would shake up the leadership of its ads and search division.

The company replaced longtime search boss Prabhakar Raghavan with Nick Fox, a deputy of Raghavan’s and a career Google employee. Raghavan was given the title of “chief scientist,” but internally, he is now listed as an “IC,” or individual contributor. 

Google also shifted the team working on its Gemini AI app to the Google DeepMind division, under AI head Demis Hassabis. Employees praised Pichai’s leadership shuffle, but some complained that the moves should’ve happened sooner.

Notably, some employees were perturbed when Raghavan addressed employees at an all-hands meeting in April, when he urged them to move faster, according to several people who spoke with CNBC. Raghavan noted that the staffers working to fix the failed Imagen 2 tool had increased their workloads from 100 hours a week to 120 hours to correct it in a timely manner.

Pichai has made efforts to get Google back to its nimble startup-like culture. 

When addressing employees, Pichai often name-checked co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page to remind them of Google’s scrappy roots. He’s flattened the company, removing 10% of middle management, according to audio of a December all-hands meeting. And in the spring, Pichai greenlit a hackathon, allowing employees to build using Google products that have yet to be announced. Pichai has also personally joined meetings with Google’s Labs team and enabled them to move quickly on products like NotebookLM, one of the company’s hit AI products in 2024.

After Brin’s hacker house appearance in March, some employees internally joked he should retake the helm, nostalgic for what they perceived as a visionary leader devoid of corporate speak. 

Brin co-founded Google with Page in 1998, but he stepped down as president of Alphabet in 2019. Brin, who remains a board member and a principal shareholder with a stake worth more than $140 billion, began appearing more frequently on campus starting in 2023, as part of an effort to help ramp up Google’s position in the hypercompetitive AI market. Employees, particularly working in AI and DeepMind said they’ve seen Brin walking around the company’s Mountain View, California, headquarters throughout the year and have been able to ask him questions for projects they’re pursuing.

Despite Brin’s reemergence, several employees told CNBC they’re doubtful he could adequately run what has become an increasingly larger and complex corporation. 

Employees said that although Pichai didn’t strike them as particularly visionary or as a wartime leader, it’s hard to find someone better suited for the job, given all the complexities of Alphabet. The key quandary remains: move too early and risk widespread criticism; move too late and risk missing the boat.

Through the year, morale inside Google wavered. Efforts to cut costs across the company in order to invest more in AI resulted in some teams feeling bifurcated and created yet another challenge for Pichai.

Within the company’s AI and DeepMind divisions, morale is mostly high, according to employees, boosted by hefty investments. Elsewhere, the vibes have been marred by cost cuts, bureaucracy and declining trust in leadership, employees said. 

DeepMind and AI teams have held off-sites, team-building activities, and have much bigger travel and recruiting budgets, people familiar with the matter said. In the spring, the company moved employees out of an eight-story office on San Francisco’s waterfront Embarcadero street and replaced them with AI and AI adjacent teams. 

A meme posted internally in November summed it up. 

The meme featured a photo of the cast of “Wicked” actors, where one, labeled “execs” looked longingly at one fellow actor labeled “Gemini” while ignoring the other beside her, which was labeled as “users.”

A Google spokesperson contested the idea that AI workers are receiving favorable treatment and said higher travel and recruiting budgets are not exclusive to AI teams or DeepMind. 

“Most Googlers, regardless of team, continue to feel positively about our mission and the company’s future, and are proud to work here,” the spokesperson said. 

A few employees say they’re no longer incentivized by the prospects of landing a promotion, which have become harder to achieve, and rather by the hope of avoiding layoffs. 

Despite slashing 12,000 jobs, or roughly 6% of its workforce, in 2023, Google has continued eliminating roles this year. In her first public statements as Google’s CFO, Anat Ashkenazi, told Wall Street in October that one of her top priorities would be to drive more “cost efficiencies” across the company in order to invest more in AI.

“I think any organization can always push a little further and I’ll be looking at additional opportunities,” Ashkenazi said.

That month, Google posted a job listing for a “Central Reorg Support Team Partner.” The responsibilities of that fixed-term contract position would include consulting with local HR teams and noted the need for the support staff’s “ability to operate with empathy and diffuse/de-escalate challenging conversations/situations.” 

“Hire the smartest people so they can tell us what to do,” one employee wrote on the internal forum in meme-style font atop the images of Brin and Page. “Hire a reorg consultant so they can tell us how to layoff the smartest people,” another said. 

Google ultimately took the job listing down.

Touting its AI technology to clients, Pichai’s leadership team has been aggressively pursuing federal government contracts, which has caused a heightened strain in some areas within the outspoken workforce since the beginning of the year.

Google terminated more than 50 employees after a series of protests against Project Nimbus, a $1.2 billion joint contract with Amazon that provides the Israeli government and military with cloud computing and AI services. Executives repeatedly said the contract didn’t violate any of the company’s “AI principles.”

However, documents and reports show the company’s agreement allowed for giving Israel AI tools that included image categorization, object tracking, as well as provisions for state-owned weapons manufacturers. Earlier this month, a New York Times report found that four months prior to signing on to Nimbus, officials at the company worried that signing the deal would harm its reputation and that “Google Cloud services could be used for, or linked to, the facilitation of human rights violations.”

In an all-hands meeting in April, a highly rated question asked why employees who did not participate in the protests were also fired, which was reported and cited in a National Labor Relations Board complaint from affected employees. Chris Rackow, Google’s security chief, took the stage at the all-hands and rebutted those claims.

“This was a very clear case of employees disrupting and occupying work spaces, and making other employees feel unsafe,” a Google spokesperson told CNBC, adding that the company “carefully confirmed” that every person terminated was involved in the protests. “By any standard, their behavior was completely unacceptable.”

That round of job eliminations underscored Google’s clampdown on internal discussions related to hot-button topics, including politics and geopolitical conflicts, which was encouraged by executives several years prior.

One internal meme that got more than 2,000 likescompared Google to Star Wars’ Anakin Skywalker. The meme shows an image of a smiling childhood Skywalker, framed by one of the company’s original, colorful employee badges. The meme progresses Skywalker’s age in two later versions of the badge. 

The final badge shows Darth Vader working for “Google,” spelled out in the font of IBM’s logo.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The advertising market has positive momentum going into 2025 — especially for media companies with sports rights and tentpole live programming.

Sports and live events such as awards shows reigned supreme in conversations with media executives who weighed in on their expectations for the advertising market in the year ahead. The end of the uncertainty surrounding the election has helped the outlook improve, too, they said.

And despite consumers fleeing the traditional TV bundles, with more ad dollars going toward streaming, executives emphasized that traditional TV is still important in discussions with advertisers, especially when it comes to sports.

Overall, executives said they expect stability in the market and are hoping to move past the slowdown in ad spending in recent years.

“Normalization is the right way to say it with the advertising market,” said Mark Marshall, NBCUniversal’s chairman of global advertising and partnerships. “With the election settled, a lot of companies feel the uncertainty over that has gone away.”

He added that the company has seen more so-called scatter market budgets come in during the fourth quarter, which is what the industry calls the buying and selling of ads closer to their airdate versus ads that are bought further out.

“Our first quarter is looking really strong. I think that any election year is challenging for anyone in the fourth quarter because a lot of marketers end up sitting on their hands since the airwaves and digital are crowded,” said Dan Porter, CEO of sports media company Overtime. “I think that’s true for us and it’s true for everyone.”

Yet despite the uptick in ad revenue following the election and the forecast stability, Natalie Bastian, global chief marketing officer at Teads, said she expects a lot of the same trends.

Bastian noted that 2024 included major moments like the Summer Olympics and presidential election, which strengthened TV ad revenue. She expects the same budgets to carry over into the new year, however.

“What we’ve heard in general from some of our closest partners … media budgets aren’t growing, and so there’s just more selection into where [advertisers are] spending their money,” said Bastian. This makes sports and live programming that much more important to media companies.

Overall, the global advertising industry is expected to surpass $1 trillion in total revenue for the first time this year, excluding U.S. political advertising, and will grow 7.7% in 2025 to reach $1.1 trillion, according to a recent report from GroupM, WPP’s media investment group. Advertising on digital platforms — which includes retail media as a segment — is what’s driving that increase.

TV, considered “the most effective form of advertising,” is expected to grow nearly 2% in 2025 to $169.1 billion in total global ad revenue. In comparison, ad revenue for “pure-play digital,” which excludes “the digital extensions of traditional media” like streaming but includes platforms like YouTube and TikTok, is expected to grow by 10% to $813.3 billion globally in 2025, according to GroupM.

Sports keep attracting big audiences and advertisers, leading media companies to pay hefty sums for the rights to games.

Commercials during live sports generated 24% more engagement than other programming, according to EDO, an advertising data company.

“Live event coverage will continue to be a cornerstone of media engagement, and streaming services must step up their game,” said Tim Hurd, vice president of media at Goodway Group. “As more streaming platforms dive into sports, the challenge will be to keep viewers engaged, not just by offering content, but by enhancing the overall experience with personalized, non-disruptive ad units.”

Comcast’s NBCUniversal said the Summer Olympics in Paris generated a record $1.2 billion in ad revenue. It appeared to have paid off, with the company reporting a total audience delivery of more than 30 million people on NBC’s TV and streaming platforms.

Fox Corp. executives have said the company already sold out of Super Bowl ads for this coming February, which reportedly cost about $7 million each. The 2024 Super Bowl had an estimated 123.7 million viewers.

And Disney said it had sold out of ads for its Christmas Day NBA games two weeks before they aired. The company added that it’s “pacing up substantially” for the full NBA season when it comes to ad revenue compared with last year, and that it’s “already seen early movement” for the postseason in the scatter market.

The audience for women’s sports, driven by the WNBA in particular, also ramped up in the last year, meaning more opportunities for advertisers.

“This is beyond Caitlin Clark, even though she is a massive catalyst,” said Josh Mattison, Disney Advertising’s executive vice president of digital revenue pricing, planning and operations. “This was a transformational year in terms of audiences.”

The audience for the WNBA hit a record in 2024, and consumers were 16% more likely to engage with ads during these games compared with last year, according to EDO. But while advertisers spent $8.5 billion on sports TV ads in 2024, women’s sports only made up 3% of that number, according to EDO, leaving plenty of room for growth next year.

The growing popularity of women’s sports and its importance for media companies was evident this month when Netflix secured the U.S. rights to the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031. The streaming giant has been bulking up its sports portfolio, as have its peers across the legacy and digital media space.

While consumers are cutting the cord and streaming services are now snapping up sports rights, linear TV’s audience still significantly outpaces streaming.

“There’s still declines in linear TV in a lot of markets, but not in all markets,” said Kate Scott-Dawkins, GroupM’s global president of business intelligence, noting there are international markets that are seeing growth. “When we talk about total TV, there is still a lot of opportunity and hopefully a renewed appreciation for how effective that can be as a medium [for advertisers].”

Amy Leifer, DirecTV Advertising’s chief ad sales officer, said the company predicts continued growth in programmatic ad spending, or automated digital ad buying, in streaming.

“Despite the shift towards streaming, linear TV still holds a significant advantage in terms of ad impressions, generating six times more than streaming,” said Leifer.

Executives said they have been talking with advertisers about how to look at linear and streaming together when disbursing ad dollars.

Leifer said DirecTV Advertising’s mantra is that “TV is TV,” no matter the distribution method. “Our focus for 2025 is to unify digital and linear television advertising by adopting a comprehensive approach and developing convergent TV solutions,” she added.

Both Marshall of NBCUniversal and Mattison of Disney said advertisers used to be focused on linear “versus” streaming. That’s not the case anymore.

“The pitch [we made to advertisers] last year is you really can’t look at one versus the other. When it’s rolled out into one platform, it’s how do you look at digital and linear together. That’s made a huge difference,” said Marshall, noting that older audiences are more present on linear TV, while younger generations have gravitated toward streaming.

Marshall said that NBCUniversal’s Peacock “hasn’t been cannibalizing linear,” because there’s little overlap between the content on both distribution outlets. “It’s actually two distinct, different audiences,” Marshall said.

Mattison noted Disney’s expansive sports portfolio and its various platforms across linear and streaming, with TV networks like ABC and ESPN, and streaming service ESPN+, which has content being added to Disney+, have been an advantage.

“The convergence [of the streaming apps] is really good for consumers, which leads to growth for advertisers,” he said. “We’re fortunate we spent years building our streaming ad tech, and we’re able to maximize audience reach as well as targeting and performance.”

“Maybe a few years ago it was linear versus streaming. I think now it’s linear AND streaming,” Mattison continued. “They’re kind of planned together. It’s true on both the media side and the advertiser side.”

Disclosure: Comcast owns CNBC parent NBCUniversal. NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through 2032.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS