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April 11, 2025

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S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q4, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 index ($SPX), indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based on earnings estimates through 2025 Q4.



Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalued levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through December 2025. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of March 31, 2025. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q4.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. High valuation applies negative pressure on the market, but other more positive factors can keep the market in overvalued territory. The current bear market has brought the market to a less overvalued status, but there is still a long way to go to more normal valuation.


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Bear Market Rules

When the stock market slides significantly, it’s natural to question if the market has bottomed and getting ready to bounce. 

In this video, David Keller, CMT highlights the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) as a key indicator to monitor during corrective moves. Learn more about how the BPI is derived, what current levels indicate about the likelihood of a short-term rally, and what you should see in the BPI to gain confidence in a recovery in the S&P 500. Dave looks at how the stock market performed in past instances when the BPI was as low as it is now.

This video was published on April 10, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (April 9) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$82,060.13 and up 7.2 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$76,842.48 and a high of US$82,665.31.

Bitcoin performance, April 9, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin is back to trading near levels seen earlier in the week following an announcement from the White House that tariffs against most countries will be paused for 90 days, after which reciprocal tariffs will be lowered to 10 percent. China is an exception — tariffs against the country have been boosted immediately to 125 percent.

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$1,633.44, an 11.9 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,459.15 and a high of US$1,661.40.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) is currently valued at US$118.54, up 14.3 percent over the past 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$104.09 and a high of US$119.68 on Wednesday.
  • XRP is trading at US$2.03, reflecting an 11.8 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$1.79 and a high of US$2.06.
  • Sui (SUI) is priced at US$2.24, showing an increaseof 13.9 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$1.09 and a high of US$2.26.
  • Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.6308, reflecting a 12.8 percent increase over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price on Wednesday was US$0.5597, with a high of US$0.64.

Crypto news to know

Trump’s tariff shock wipes US$2 billion from US Bitcoin stash

The US government’s Bitcoin holdings have dropped by nearly US$2 billion in value since April 2 — dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump — following a steep market selloff triggered by tariff announcements.

According to Arkham Intelligence, the 198,012 BTC held by federal agencies declined in value from US$17.24 billion to US$15.21 billion in just under a week as Bitcoin slid from over US$87,000 to below US$77,000.

An executive order made by Trump in March established a strategic Bitcoin reserve sourced from seized assets, further tying federal coffers to price swings in the cryptocurrency. The losses come as the administration ramps up global economic pressure, testing the volatility of its newly created digital reserve.

Digital asset regulations under scrutiny at congressional hearing

The Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) held a hearing on Wednesday to examine why current regulations may not apply to digital asset activities, and to explore which of these activities trigger US securities laws. Members of the subcommittee also discussed how Congress can address challenges through legislative action that reduces legal uncertainty while encouraging innovation.

At the hearing, Rodrigo Seira, special counsel to law firm Cooley, told the subcommittee that current securities laws are not flexible enough to account for digital assets, citing a long list of crypto projects that have tried and failed to register their products with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

“It is clear that the current securities regulatory framework is not a viable option to regulate crypto. It fails to achieve its stated policy goals,” Seira said in his opening remarks.

“(T)he idea that crypto projects can come in and register with the SEC is demonstrably false.”

Seira admitted that it is critical to apply federal regulations to crypto promoters; however, “virtually no crypto projects have successfully registered their tokens under federal securities laws and lived to tell the tale.”

Representative Bryan Steil, head of the subcommittee, praised the progress that lawmakers have made, mentioning last week’s passing of the STABLE Act in the House of Representatives, before directing the subcommittee to the next stage of the process, namely comprehensive digital asset market structure legislation.

Pakistan taps Bitcoin mining and AI to solve power woes

Pakistan is turning to Bitcoin mining and AI data centers as a solution for its surplus electricity problem, aiming to repurpose excess power into revenue-generating infrastructure.

Bilal Bin Saqib, head of the country’s Crypto Council, told Reuters that mining sites will be selected based on regional energy overcapacity, with former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao advising on the initiative.

Despite regulatory ambiguity, Pakistan ranks among the top 10 countries in global crypto adoption and boasts over 15 million users. The move also emphasizes youth blockchain upskilling and fostering innovation in fintech through regulatory sandboxes to boost exports and economic resilience.

Kraken, Mastercard bring crypto spending to 150 million merchants

Crypto exchange Kraken is teaming up with Mastercard (NYSE:MA) to roll out crypto debit cards across the UK and Europe, enabling users to spend digital assets at more than 150 million merchants.

The partnership builds on Kraken Pay, which allows seamless crypto-to-fiat transactions in over 300 currencies.

The new physical and digital cards — set to launch in the coming weeks — are aimed at expanding crypto’s real-world utility and normalizing digital asset payments.

Kraken CEO David Ripley views this as a critical step toward integrating crypto into everyday commerce, while Mastercard has underscored its commitment to innovating in digital finance and supporting blockchain initiatives.

Binance to delist 14 tokens

Binance announced on Tuesday (April 8) its decision to delist 14 tokens — BADGER, BAL, BETA, CREAM, CTXC, ELF, FIRO, HARD, NULS, PROS, SNT, TROY, UFT and VIDT — from its platform on April 16.

The decision follows a comprehensive evaluation that included a review of project commitment and trading volume. The outcome also incorporated the results of Binance’s newly introduced ‘Vote to Delist’ mechanism, which allows users to vote on potentially underperforming tokens based on their BNB holdings.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

With Canada’s energy and critical minerals sectors at a crossroads, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has unveiled a sweeping plan to overhaul the country’s resource project approvals process, fast tracking 10 major projects and pledging over US$1 billion in funding to open up Ontario’s mineral-rich Ring of Fire region.

At a Monday (April 7) press conference held in Terrace, BC, Poilievre introduced his “One-and-Done” policy — a streamlined permitting system aimed at eliminating regulatory bottlenecks and cutting multi-year wait times, which he blames for stalling development and weakening Canada’s global economic position.

Under the proposal, a new Rapid Resource Project Office would act as a centralized hub to manage all regulatory approvals across the federal and provincial levels. Each project would be subject to a single application and environmental review, with decisions promised within a year and a target of six months.

“After the Lost Liberal decade, Canada is poorer, weaker, and more dependent on the US than ever before, especially as a market for our natural resources,” Poilievre said in a release. “My ‘One-and-Done’ rule will quickly and safely unleash Canada’s natural resources by rapidly approving the projects Canadians need more of now: mines, roads, LNG terminals, hydro projects, and nuclear power stations, so we can stand on our own two feet and stand up to the Americans.’

LNG Canada, Ring of Fire projects top Conservative agenda

Among the most significant commitments is the LNG Canada Phase II expansion in Northern BC, which would double liquefied natural gas output from 14 million to 28 million metric tons annually.

The expansion has faced numerous delays due to emissions caps and concerns over power supply.

A Conservative government, Poilievre said, would repeal federal legislation he calls obstructive — notably Bill C-69, which he brands the “No Pipelines – No Development Law” — and lift the emissions cap that could impede Phase II.

Also at the top of Poilievre’s list is development of the Ring of Fire — a vast area in Northern Ontario rich in chromite, nickel, cobalt and other critical minerals essential for electric vehicles and defense technologies.

Three weeks ago, Poilievre pledged that a Conservative government would approve all federal permits for Ring of Fire projects within six months and commit C$1 billion over three years to build a long-awaited access road connecting mineral deposits and Indigenous communities to the provincial highway network.

“We could boost our economy with billions of dollars, allowing us to become less dependent on the Americans, while our allies overseas would no longer have to rely on Beijing for these metals, turning dollars for dictators into paychecks for our people,” Poilievre said at the time, emphasizing the importance of supply chain security.

He also said companies operating in the Ring of Fire would be allowed to redirect a portion of their federal corporate taxes directly to local Indigenous groups, a move he argues would foster economic reconciliation and local buy in.

Nine other projects slated for acceleration

In addition to LNG Canada Phase II and the Ring of Fire road, Poilievre named nine other projects that his government would prioritize for review and approval:

  • Northern Road Link (Ontario): A key multi-use road to connect Ring of Fire deposits, under review since 2023.
  • Sorel-Tracy port terminal (Québec): A new terminal in the St. Lawrence industrial corridor.

Each of these projects has faced lengthy delays under the current review framework, Poilievre said, and would be reviewed immediately to identify and remove administrative barriers.

Carney outlines ‘One Project, One Review’ agenda

At a campaign stop in Calgary, Alberta, Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney introduced the ‘One Project, One Review’ policy, which is intended to expedite approvals for major mining projects in Canada.

The initiative aims to eliminate redundant federal and provincial environmental assessments by recognizing provincial evaluations, thereby streamlining the permitting process. The policy is designed to accelerate the development of critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, which are essential for clean energy technologies.

By reducing regulatory delays, the government would seek to enhance Canada’s competitiveness in the global mining sector and support its transition to a sustainable energy future.

Carney told the crowd his goal is to make Canada an ‘energy superpower.’

“We are going to aggressively develop projects that are in the national interest in order to protect Canada’s energy security, diversify our trade, and enhance our long-term competitiveness — all while reducing emissions,” Carney explained in a written statement on Wednesday (April 9). “We can lead the energy transition while ensuring affordable energy at home and building the strongest economy in the G-7.”

He pledged to expand Canada’s critical mineral exploration tax credit to cover minerals used in defense, semiconductors, energy and cleantech. Carney also plans to broaden eligible exploration expenses to include technical studies and extend the clean manufacturing tax credit to support brownfield site development.

‘This is huge,” Pierre Gratton, CEO of the Mining Association of Canada, told Bloomberg. “It includes an awful lot of stuff that we’ve been advocating for for a while, and not getting.”

He added, “This could really help increase Canadian production of critical minerals in the short- to medium-term.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com