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April 26, 2025

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S&P 500 Rises from Bearish to Neutral, But Will It Last?

The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Navigate Market Shifts Like a Pro: Utilize This Key Indicator Effectively

After weeks of uncertainty, the stock market finally gave us something to smile about. The major indexes just wrapped up four straight days of gains, and optimism is starting to creep back in. Could this be the shift we’ve been waiting for?

Let’s break it down.

The big concerns this week were all about tariffs and the potential removal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But markets breathed a sigh of relief when it looked like tensions might ease between the two largest global economies. Plus, Powell staying put at the Fed helped calm some nerves.

In short, the fear factor took a breather, and the bulls took charge.

What Are the Charts Telling Us?

The S&P 500 ($SPX) crossed above the key 5500 level. This isn’t just any number; it’s a major line in the sand. It represents the March low and, if you go further back on the daily chart below, it has been a support and resistance level for previous price action. The purple horizontal line marks the 5,500 level.

FIGURE 1. SIGNS OF A TURNAROUND? The S&P 500 closed above the key 5,500 level, a major breakthrough. Breadth indicators are suggesting expanding bullish participation. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Even better, market breadth is improving.

We are also seeing strength across the board:

  • BPI readings for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 100, S&P 500, and Dow Industrials are all above 50%.
  • 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have BPIs above 50%, with Consumer Staples being the only one with a BPI below 50. This is surprising since it was one of the only sectors above 50% not long ago.

Sector Watch: Who’s Leading?

If you’re looking for clues about the market’s next big move, watch sector rotation. Right now, leadership is coming from:

  • Technology
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Communication Services

These are your classic “risk-on” sectors—if they’re leading, that’s typically a bullish sign.

What About Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar?

Some of the big-picture trends are starting to stabilize, too:

  • Bond yields are dipping, which is helping bond prices recover.
  • Gold pulled back after hitting new highs.
  • The U.S. dollar is showing signs of strength again.
  • And the $VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—is finally back below 30.

All small signs, but they add up.

Indicator of the Week: The Zweig Breadth Thrust

One indicator all technical analysts should take note of is the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  It’s a rare signal that flashes when market breadth shifts quickly from bearish to bullish.

The indicator is the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of net NYSE advances. The NYSE Breadth Thrust signal fires when the indicator moves from below 0.40 to above 0.615 in 10 days.

The weekly chart below shows that this is the third time the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal was fired in the last five years. The last two times this occurred were in 2023, when the NYSE recovered after dipping below its 40- and 150-week simple moving average (SMA). This time, the index bounced off its 150-week SMA.

FIGURE 2. ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST FIRES A REVERSAL SIGNAL. Previous signals have been followed by bullish moves in the NYSE. Will we see a similar scenario this time? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The Zweig Breadth Thrust is a bullish reversal signal. Note that each time the signal was fired, the market moved higher. It doesn’t guarantee a bull run, but it’s a green flag.

What’s Coming Next Week?

If this weren’t a headline-driven market, I would be more confident about the possibility of the market moving higher. Next week is packed with potential market-moving headlines.

  • Big Tech earnings
  • Q1 GDP
  • PCE Inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge)
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • Non-Farm Payrolls

At the Close

The underlying market conditions are improving and some key signals are flashing green. But, as noted, it’s still a headline-driven market, and that means all the more reason to stay alert. Focus on leading sectors, watch for confirmation in breadth, and keep your investment plan tight.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 4.59% on the week, at 5525.21, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.48% on the week at 40,113.50; Nasdaq Composite up 6.73% on the week at 17,382.94.
  • $VIX down 16.22% on the week, closing at 24.84.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Staples
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB); Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD); Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK); MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and others reporting
  • March JOLTs Job Openings
  • Q1 GDP Growth Rate
  • March PCE
  • April ISM Manufacturing
  • April Non-Farm Payrolls

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: Tag Oil Posts 76 Percent Gain

South of the border, cooling rhetoric from the Trump administration led what turned out to be a relatively quiet news week.

Markets were volatile at the start of the week, however, after US President Donald Trump suggested on April 17 that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s “termination couldn’t come fast enough.”

The president softened his stance on Tuesday (April 22) when he said he had no intention of firing the head of the US central bank, but called him a “major loser.” Trump has been critical of Powell, saying that he has been slow to react to the markets in making rate cuts.

For his part, Powell has remained steadfast in waiting for more data before making decisions to tackle interest rates, most recently saying the Fed was taking its time to analyze the effect of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

This week, the president also implied that the high tariffs of 145 percent he implemented against China may come down in the future, although he said they would not be removed entirely. The comments helped to ease market tension on Tuesday, although he didn’t say when he would lower them.

However, economists believe that unless there is a substantial reduction to the 10 to 20 percent range, trade between the countries will not be normalized.

China said it was open to working out a deal, but not until the US remove all tariffs levied against Chinese imports. The Chinese foreign ministry also contradicted Trump’s statements that the two countries had been in negotiations.

As for Canada, Statistics Canada released its monthly mineral production survey for February on Tuesday.

The report showed that metallic mineral production was down from January. Copper production fell to 32.42 million kilograms from 34.1 million kilograms, gold production fell to 16,431 kilograms from 16,969 kilograms and silver production declined to 20,543 kilograms from 22,634 kilograms.

Shipments mostly increased compared to January’s figures. Copper rose to 29.23 million kilograms from 28.58 million kilograms and gold shipments increased to 15,328 kilograms from 14,751 kilograms. Silver saw the only decline, dropping to 16,592 kilograms from 17,227 kilograms.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 2.24 percent during the week to close at 24,710.51 on Friday (April 25), the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) rose 2.25 percent to 653.82 and the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) surged 6.05 percent to 120.11.

US equity markets were highly volatile this week, but posted significant gains by close on Friday, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) adding 5.67 percent to close at 5,525.22, the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) gaining 7.82 percent to 19,432.56 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rose 3.1 percent to 40,113.51.

The gold price climbed to a new high early in the week, touching the US$3,500 per ounce mark on Tuesday. However, by the end of the week it was in retreat, closing out Friday down 0.75 percent at US$3,307.54. The silver price went the opposite direction, rising 1.79 percent during the period to US$33.05.

In base metals, the COMEX copper price gained 3.16 percent over the week to US$4.89 per pound. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) fell 0.25 percent to close at 537.20.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

So how did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Here’s a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stock data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.

1. Tag Oil (TSXV:TAO)

Weekly gain: 76.47 percent
Market cap: C$32.77 million
Share price: C$0.15

Tag Oil is an oil and gas development company working to advance assets in Egypt’s Badr oil field.

The oilfield was first discovered in 1982 and has seen significant production since that time. Tag has been focused on exploration of the Abu Roash formation, and according to a November 2022 report, has estimated that its BED-1 concession contains more than 531.5 million barrels of oil in place, and represents an opportunity for successful commercial development.

Shares in Tag gained this week after the company announced on Tuesday that it had closed the sale of its 2.5 percent gross overriding royalty interests on the Cheal, Cardiff, Sidewinder, Puka and Cheal East operations in New Zealand. The company received the royalties in 2018 when it sold the assets.

Under the terms of the sale, the company received US$2.2 million, with the possibility of an additional US$300,000 in milestone payments. Tag stated the sale allows it to reallocate its resources to advancing its core business in Egypt.

2. Critical One Energy (CSE:CRTL)

Weekly gain: 63.27 percent
Market cap: C$12.65 million
Share price: C$0.40

Critical One is a critical mineral and uranium exploration company working to advance projects in Canada and Namibia.

The company’s uranium projects are located in Namibia and consist of the Madison West and the Madison North projects. They are situated in a region that hosts two producing uranium mines, the China National Nuclear Power (SHA:601985) led Rössing mine and CGN Power’s (OTC Pink:CGNWF,HKEX:1816) Husab mine.

The Madison West site covers an area of 35 square kilometers and hosts four primary prospects, including ML121, which has geological similarities to the deposits found at Rössing. The Madison North site covers an area of 26.13 square kilometers and has seen 50 holes completed over 3,720 meters.

Critical One’s newest asset is the Howells Lake antimony-gold project located near Thunder Bay in Ontario, Canada. The site is composed of 697 claims covering an area of 13,991 hectares. According to the project page, a historic resource estimate shows 51 million pounds of contained antimony from 1.7 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1.7 percent antimony.

Multiple parties previously owned the property, and on January 13, Critical One announced it had entered into a definitive purchase and sale agreement with Bounty Gold and the other vendors to acquire 100 percent of the project.

The company has not released any project news in the last week.

3. Patagonia Gold (TSXV:PGDC)

Weekly gain: 55.56 percent
Market cap: C$32.55 million
Share price: C$0.07

Patagonia Gold is a precious metals production and development company primarily focused on advancing its Cap-Oeste and Calcatreu underground projects in Argentina.

Located in Santa Cruz province, Cap-Oeste hosted open-pit mining operations until 2018. While Patagonia is working on the exploration and development of the underground resource at the site, it has been able to recover gold and silver from residual leaching on site.

In Patagonia’s management discussion and analysis, released on November 29, it reported that it had produced 1,415 ounces of gold and 65,046 ounces of silver from Cap-Oeste during the first nine months of 2024.

According to the company’s website, a 2018 mineral resource estimate for Cap-Oeste reported measured and indicated values of 704,300 ounces of gold and 21.43 million ounces of silver from 10.56 million metric tons of ore with average grades of 2.07 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold and 63.2 g/t silver.

Acquired in a deal with Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS,TSX:PAAS) in 2017, the Calcatreu project is located in Argentina’s Rio Negro province and covers approximately 90,000 hectares. A 2018 mineral resource estimate for Calcatreu reported measured and indicated values of 669,000 ounces of gold and 6.28 million ounces of silver from 9.84 million metric tons of ore with average grades of 2.11 g/t gold and 19.8 g/t silver.

The most recent news from the company came on Tuesday when it announced it had increased its loan facility with Cantomi Capital to US$50 million from US$45 million with a maturity date of December 31, 2026. The company intends to use the additional funds to continue the development at Calcatreu.

4. Azincourt Energy (TSXV:AAZ)

Weekly gain: 50 percent
Market cap: C$11.23 million
Share price: C$0.03

Azincourt Energy is a uranium exploration and development company working to advance projects in Canada.

One of its main focuses in 2025 is the Snegamook uranium project in the Central Mineral Belt of Newfoundland and Labrador. In October 2024, the company signed an option agreement to acquire a 100 percent stake in the property from BR Corporation.

The belt contains multiple uranium deposits including Paladin Energy’s (TSX:PDN,ASX:PDN) Michelin deposit, which hosts a measured and indicated resource of 82.2 million pounds of U3O8.

The property consists of 17 claims covering an area of 423 hectares and hosts proven shallow uranium mineralization. Previous exploration work discovered 1.3 kilometers of uranium bearing strike.

The most recent news from the project came on March 25, when Azincourt announced it was planning its inaugural work program that would include up to 1,000 meters of initial diamond drilling to confirm and expand on known uranium mineralization.

Its other focus this year has been at its East Preston project in the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan. The site covers 20,647 hectares and is one of the largest landholdings in the region.

Azincourt announced on April 1 that it was planning a geophysical program at the property in the fall, and in the winter it may perform follow-up diamond drilling on clay alteration zones discovered at the site in 2023 and 2024.

5. Novagold (TSX:NG)

Weekly gain: 49.88 percent
Market cap: C$2.31 billion
Share price: C$6.18

Novagold is a development company working to bring its Donlin Gold asset into production. The property, located in West-central Alaska, US, is currently a 50/50 joint venture between Novagold and Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:GOLD).

According to a June 2021 technical report, the property hosts proven and probable reserves of 33.85 million ounces of gold from 504.81 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 2.09 g/t gold.

The report also demonstrated an after tax net present value of US$3.04 billion with an internal rate of return of 9.2 percent over a payback period of 7.3 years, all of which is based on a gold price of US$1,500 per ounce.

On Tuesday, the company announced that it and Paulson Advisers had entered into a definitive agreement with Barrick Gold to acquire Barrick’s 50 percent interest in the project for US$1 billion, with Novagold purchasing 10 percent of it for US$200 million. Upon completion, Novagold’s stake will increase to 60 percent and Paulson Advisers will hold a 40 percent stake.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

What is the difference between the TSX and TSXV?

The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, and the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.

How many mining companies are listed on the TSX and TSXV?

As of February 2025, there were 1,572 companies listed on the TSXV, 905 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,859 companies, with 181 of those being mining companies.

Together the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Editor’s Picks: Gold Price Touches US$3,500 in Volatile Week, M&A Heats Up

It was quite a week for the gold price.

The yellow metal continued its record-breaking streak early in the period, touching the US$3,500 per ounce level for the first time, but then saw a sharp pullback, even dropping briefly below US$3,300.

What’s behind gold’s latest moves? Market watchers have pointed to US President Donald Trump’s comments about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as the trigger for its latest spike.

In a Truth Social post on Monday (April 21), Trump said there could be a ‘SLOWING of the economy’ unless Powell — who he referred to as ‘Mr. Too Late’ — lowers interest rates.

Trump has criticized Powell heavily in recent days, saying last week that his ‘termination cannot come fast enough!’ That statement reignited discussions on whether Trump is able to fire Powell — Powell has said it can’t be done, and there isn’t any precedent since no president has ever tried to oust a Fed chair.

For now, the tension has subsided — Trump walked back his harsh words about Powell on Tuesday (April 22), saying he doesn’t intend to fire him, but still wants to see rate cuts.

‘I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates’ — Trump

Bullet briefing — Barrick to sell Donlin stake, CMOC to buy Lumina

Barrick to sell Donlin stake

Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:GOLD) has reached an agreement to sell its 50 percent stake in the Donlin gold project to affiliates of Paulson Advisers and NOVAGOLD Resources (TSX:NG,NYSEAMERICAN:NG).

The major gold miner will sell its interest in Donlin for US$1 billion in cash, with Paulson providing US$800 million and NOVAGOLD contributing the other US$200 million. Once the deal closes, Paulson will have a 40 percent interest in Donlin, while NOVAGOLD’s stake in the asset will rise from 50 percent to 60 percent.

Barrick President and CEO Mark Bristow said Donlin is an asset that ‘might be better suited in the hands of others,’ adding that the company is exiting at an ‘attractive valuation.’

While Donlin is one of the world’s largest gold projects, it is located in Alaska where infrastructure is scarce. At the same time, Barrick is looking to hone in on tier-one assets and boost its copper exposure.

Thomas Kaplan, chair of NOVAGOLD, said in a conference call after the sale was announced that his company ‘did not see eye-to-eye on a couple of things’ with Barrick, including the timing for a feasibility study for Donlin and the amount of drilling to conduct at the property.

Paulson Advisers, a longtime NOVAGOLD shareholder, is chaired by John Paulson, who is known for betting against the housing market during the great financial crisis.

In an interview with Bloomberg this week, the American billionaire said gold is ‘moving to a new level of valuation’ as central banks continue to buy.

CMOC to acquire Lumina

In other gold M&A news, CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF,HKEX:3993,SHA:603993) has agreed to buy Lumina Gold (TSXV:LUM,OTCQB:LMGDF) in a transaction worth C$581 million.

The all-cash deal will see CMOC pay C$1.27 per Lumina share.

Lumina is focused on its Cangrejos project, which it says is the largest primary gold deposit in Ecuador. A 2023 prefeasibility study outlines a 26 year mine life, with average annual payable production of 371,000 ounces of gold, plus average annual payable by-product output of 41 million pounds of copper.

‘After advancing the Cangrejos project for over 10-years and taking it from no defined resources to being poised to be one of the largest gold projects globally, the Lumina Group is excited for the transition of the Cangrejos project to CMOC,’ said Marshall Koval, CEO of Lumina Gold.

Well-known mining industry figure Ross Beaty is Lumina’s largest shareholder, while CMOC is a major producer of metals like molybdenum, tungsten, copper and cobalt.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

American liquor exports hit record high in 2024, driven by tariffs

U.S. spirit exports reached a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven in large part by tariff concerns and ongoing global trade disputes.

That is according to the American Spirits Exports report published by trade association the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States on Thursday.

“U.S. spirits exports hit a new high in 2024, recapturing lost market share since the UK and EU lifted retaliatory tariffs that were applied between 2018-2021,” said DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger. “Unfortunately, ongoing trade disputes unrelated to our sector have caused uncertainty, keeping many U.S. distillers on the sidelines and curtailing sales growth.”

U.S. spirits exports to the EU surged by 39%, fueled by concerns over the potential return of a 50% tariff on American whiskey imports in 2025, which was suspended in 2022.

In March, Trump threatened to put 200% tariffs on French Champagne and other EU spirits, which led European world leaders — specifically from Ireland, France and Italy — to advocate for bourbon tariffs not to return as part of retaliatory measures.

The threat of that specific tariff has faded somewhat as the U.S. and EU continue trade negotiations.

Approximately 50% of U.S. spirits were exported to the EU — totaling $1.2 billion — making it the largest export market.

Exports to the rest of the world, however, declined by nearly 10%, the report found, which reflects the broader softening alcohol category.

Suntory Beam, the Japanese maker of Jim Beam bourbon whiskey, said in December it was preparing for tariffs by stockpiling supply in Europe. The company is already heavily reliant on France and the United Kingdom, which make up over 50% of its global exports market over the last eight years, according to global trade data from Panjiva.

Several of the top states for exports in 2024 are significant bourbon economies, according to the report.

Still, American whiskey exports, which accounted for 54% of all U.S. spirits exports, dipped 5.4% to $1.3 billion.

Swonger said that while outlook for spirits remains highly unpredictable with ongoing trade disputes, one fact rings true in the data: Exports go to countries that have eliminated tariffs.

“We are thankful for President Trump’s early success in securing India’s reduction of its tariff on Bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Swonger said. “It’s our hope that the administration builds on this positive momentum by securing additional tariff reductions in India and reducing trade barriers in other countries.”

Headwinds remain for the industry. Canada, the second largest market for U.S. spirits exports, imposed a 25% tariff in on alcohol coming over the border in March, and several provinces have removed product from shelves.

Distiller and brewers also face steel and aluminum tariffs that impact materials costs for brewers like Constellation Brands, which lowered long-term 2027 and 2028 guidance significantly around “the anticipated impact of tariffs.”

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Hasbro forecasts as much as $300 million impact if China tariffs don’t come down

If President Donald Trump’s 145% levy against imports from China holds, Hasbro estimates it could see as much as a $300 million hit to its bottom line.

The toy maker posted better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, but investors and analysts were more focused on the ongoing trade war Trump’s White House has waged against the toy industry’s biggest manufacturer.

Hasbro maintained the full-year guidance it issued last quarter, citing the uncertainty of the current tariff environment.

“Our forecast assumes various scenarios for China tariffs, ranging from 50% to the rate holding at 145% and 10% for the rest of world,” said Gina Goetter, chief financial officer and chief operating officer at Hasbro, during Thursday’s earnings call. “This translates to an estimated $100 million to $300 million gross impact across the enterprise in 2025. Before any mitigation.”

CEO Chris Cocks said during the company’s earnings call that “while no company is insulated, Hasbro is well positioned,” noting the company’s unchanged guidance is “supported by our robust games and licensing businesses and our strategic flexibility.”

“Prolonged tariff conditions create structural costs and heighten market unpredictability,” he said, adding, “ultimately tariffs translate into higher consumer prices.”

Cocks also warned of “potential job losses as we adjust to absorb increased costs and reduced profit for our shareholders.”

The company’s U.S. games business benefits from digital and domestic sourcing, as many of its board games are made in Massachusetts. Its Wizards of the Coast division, which includes Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons, has a tariff exposure of less than $10 million, Cocks said, as much of the domestic product is made in North Carolina, Texas and Japan.

The company’s toy segment faces higher exposure, as a larger portion of those goods are made in China. Cocks said the company is exploring options for moving its supply chain to other countries.

“Some of that, though, comes with the cost,” he said. “When we manufacture board games in the U.S., it is significantly more expensive to manufacture here than it is in China.”

He added that the company can shift the sourcing of Play-Doh, for example, from China to its factory in Turkey. Under that scenario, Turkey manufacturers would redirect shipments from Europe to the U.S. and Chinese factories could fill in to supply the European market.

Other products are more difficult to triage, especially those that include electronics, high end deco and foam components, Cocks said.

“China will continue to be a major manufacturing hub for us globally, in large part due to specialized capabilities developed over decades,” he said.

Goetter said that much of the manufacturing changes would be seen in 2026 and are dependent on if those countries already have the capabilities and infrastructure in place to make certain products.

Hasbro is also accelerating its $1 billion cost savings plan in an effort to offset tariff pressures, but noted that price hikes are unavoidable.

“We are going to have to raise prices inside of 145% tariff regime with China,” Cocks said. “We’re just trying to do it as selectively as possible and minimize the burden to the fans and families that we serve.”

Both Goetter and Cocks admitted that Hasbro’s plans are flexible and will change as the tariff situation evolves. The company is hopeful for a “more predictable and favorable U.S. trade policy environment.”

“We’re trying to play both defense and offense at the same time,” Goetter said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS