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May 2, 2025

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The Hidden Meaning Behind the Tech Sector’s Rally (And How to Spot It)

When you’re lost in the woods, you reach for a compass to find true north. In the markets, it’s not so simple, as the landscape is always shifting. If there is a “true north” in this terrain, it might be better understood as a characteristic—strength and momentum over time, rather than a single stock or sector.

With sentiment muddled and signals mixed, how do you cut through near-term noise and find the “true north” in a shifting market landscape? This is where StockCharts’ MarketCarpets comes in. You can think of it as a visual compass that can help you reorient and recalibrate.

What MarketCarpets is Saying Now

All MarketCarpets readings use the five-day setting, since shorter time frames are particularly susceptible to noise in the current context.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS S&P VIEW. Lots of green, but I want to see a reduction.

On Thursday morning, there were more bullish greens than bearish reds. They represent S&P 500 stocks performing better relative to others—specifically from a ‘long only’ (bullish) perspective. But what do those greens have in common?

The answer is that most, if not all, are Information Technology sector funds.

Technology Sector Leads the Charge in S&P 500

If you select the S&P Sector ETFs group, Technology is the strongest among all 11 S&P sectors.

FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPETS SECTORS. Technology is far ahead of most other sectors, which read bullish.

If you follow financial news, you’re probably well aware of how certain tech companies are performing, especially in light of the current earnings season.

But not every investor wants to risk allocating capital toward individual stocks, given the volatility of today’s geopolitical environment, where news on a given day can cause markets to soar or slump. So, conservative investors, particularly those in or nearing retirement, might want to opt for a sector ETF instead, like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK).

Why is technology outperforming?

Six Reasons Tech Stocks are Outperforming in 2025

Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s going on:

  • AI and cloud boom. Enterprise-focused giants are thriving due to surging AI demand.
  • Earnings confidence. Big tech’s strong earnings are keeping investor sentiment positive despite market volatility.
  • Tariff mitigation. Tech companies are proactively shifting supply chains to soften tariff impact.
  • Tariff relief. Temporary exemptions on key tech products give hardware makers a short-term boost.
  • Long-term innovation appeal. Investors see AI, chips, and automation as long-term growth drivers.
  • Stable revenue streams. Tech firms with enterprise and software services offer more stability than consumer-driven sectors.

Technology Sector Overbought? Market Breadth Says Maybe

That’s a lot of fundamental talk, but what does the technical picture look like? Let’s start by analyzing market breadth with the S&P Technology Sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPINFO) chart.

FIGURE 3. TECH SECTOR BPI. Most tech stocks in the sector are ultra-bullish, but that can also signal overbought conditions.

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is at 85, meaning 85% of all stocks within the sector are triggering Point & Figure Buy Signals. Above 50% is bullish, but above 70%, let alone 85%, XLK is straddling ultra-bullish to overbought.

If you look at the magenta rectangle, you can see where XLK’s trend is situated—at the point of recovery following a two-month tumble. However, it’s still below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and, as the saying goes, nothing good happens below the 200.

XLK’s Price and Volume Action: A Closer Look

Let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XLK. It broke above resistance, but can it sustain upward momentum?

XLK’s recovery effort gained momentum with a notable gap up on Thursday. Positive momentum is reinforced by a rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50 level, suggesting XLK still has room to run.

From a volume perspective, the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is trending higher, signaling increased buying pressure. A 20-day SMA is overlaid to show how OBV is performing relative to its average. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), hovering flat near the zero line (see blue circle), indicates accumulation with hesitation.

Key Support Levels to Watch If You’re Bullish on XLK

If you’re considering a long position in XLK, keep an eye on these key technical levels:

  • Initial Support – $205. The breakout level around $205 (marked by the blue dotted line) should act as the first line of support on any pullback.
  • Secondary Support Zone – $185 to $187.50. If $205 fails, the yellow-shaded zone becomes the next support range. But note: if price falls here, the $205 breakout level may flip into resistance.
  • Critical Support – $172.50. A drop toward $172.50 could signal deeper technical weakness. That’s why the area is shaded red—to underscore its importance.

In each case, monitor the CMF for confirmation. A rising CMF, especially in the first two support zones, would suggest continued buying pressure—a bullish signal. Conversely, if CMF dips below the zero line, it would signal growing selling pressure, reinforcing a more bearish outlook.

At the Close

The tech sector is leading the charge, but you have to estimate whether momentum is real or just generating noise. MarketCarpets works like a compass, helping you visually navigate market conditions and spot patterns. Pair it with tools like RSI, OBV, CMF, or any other preferred tool in your analytical toolbox to create well-defined setups and exits. In a market environment driven by sentiment, headlines, fear, and FOMO, having a solid technical foundation is more important than ever.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Top 10 Stock Charts For May 2025: Breakouts, Trends & Big Moves!

Discover the top 10 stock charts to watch this month with Grayson Roze and David Keller, CMT. They break down breakout strategies, moving average setups, and technical analysis strategies using relative strength, momentum, and trend-following indicators. This analysis covers key market trends that could impact your trading decisions. You don’t want to miss these insights into market dynamics and chart patterns that could impact your trading decisions.

This video originally premiered on May 1, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Top 5 Manganese Reserves by Country

Manganese, a key ingredient for the steel market, is also seeing growth in demand from the electric vehicle battery sector, particularly when it comes to high-purity manganese chemical products.

Manganese investors are often interested to hear which countries produce the most of the metal. After all, if a nation is producing a lot of manganese, many companies are likely operating there, and investment opportunities may thus be available.

However, what investors sometimes fail to consider is manganese reserves, or how much economically mineable manganese a country holds, and which companies are working to bring those reserves into production.

Here’s an overview of the five countries with the highest manganese reserves. Data for this list of manganese reserves by country comes from the US Geological Survey’s 2025 report on manganese.

1. South Africa

Manganese reserves: 560 million metric tons

At 560 million metric tons, South Africa holds the highest manganese reserves in the world by a long shot. The nation is also the world’s top producer of the metal, with 2024 output of 7.4 million metric tons.

South32 (ASX:S32,LSE:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF) is a major presence in the South African manganese space. Its South Africa Manganese operation is located in the manganese-rich Kalahari Basin and consists of the open-pit Mamatwan mine, the underground Wessels mine and the Metalloys manganese alloy smelter.

Another ASX-listed manganese miner, Jupiter Mines (ASX:JMS,OTC Pink:JMXXF) is also operating in the area at its Tshipi Borwa mine, considered the largest manganese mine in country and one of the largest in the world.

2. China

Manganese reserves: 280 million metric tons

The country with the next highest manganese reserves is China at 280 million metric tons of manganese. The Asian nation is also the sixth largest producer of manganese ore, the largest producer of refined manganese and the largest consumer of the metal. Unsurprisingly, China’s economy and government regulations have an outsized impact on the global manganese market.

There have been several significant manganese discoveries in China over the last decade. In late 2023, new manganese deposits were discovered in the southeast province of Jiangxi during government-led exploration work, and manganese deposits were discovered in the southwest province of Guizhou in 2017. More recently, in March 2025, Chinese government geologists confirmed an inferred resource estimate of 6.07 million tons of manganese ore in the Maowanli manganese project in the Sichuan province.

Looking further down the value added chain, Australian miner Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) has partnered with a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Co. (SHA:601117) to build a high-purity manganese sulphate plant in China, which has entered pilot production. Firebird has an ore supply agreement in place with Eramet (EPA:ERA) for manganese ore to feed the plant, and it could potentially be supplied by Firebird’s Oakover manganese project in Australia in the future.

3. Brazil

Manganese reserves: 270 million metric tons

Brazil hosts a total of 270 million metric tons of manganese reserves as of 2024. The country produced 590,000 metric tons of the metal in 2024, making it the seventh-largest manganese-producing country.

Buritirama Mining, a subsidiary of Grupo Buritipar, is Brazil’s leading producer of the metal. The company invested US$200 million in 2023 to expand operations at its Para state mine.

Major miner Vale (NYSE:VALE), previously the largest manganese miner in the country, offloaded its Brazilian manganese and iron ore assets to J&F Investimentos in 2022. Going forward, J&F has said it plans to invest more than US$1 billion in increasing the iron ore and manganese output from the mines it purchased from Vale.

4. Australia

Manganese reserves: 110 million metric tons

At 110 million metric tons, Australia holds the fourth highest manganese reserves in the world. The nation is also the world’s third largest producer of the metal. In 2024, Australia’s manganese output came in at 2.8 million metric tons.

Australia’s largest manganese ore producer is Groote Eylandt, a 60/40 joint venture between South32 and Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), in the nation’s Northern Territory. In mid-March 2024, operations at Groote Eylandt were negatively impacted by Tropical Cyclone Meghan — the second strongest cyclone to hit the area in the past two decades.

The storm damaged critical infrastructure at the site, including a haulage bridge between the mine and processing facilities, as well as the wharf from which manganese ore is shipped. South32 is currently conducting engineering studies to determine a schedule and capital costs to make the repairs needed to restore operations at Groote Eylandt.

As of mid-April 2025, South32 had completed construction at the wharf and expected to start export sales again in May.

5. Gabon

Manganese reserves: 61 million metric tons

Gabon hosts the fifth largest manganese reserves in the world at 61 million metric tons; however, the Central African nation is the second largest producer of the metal with an output of 4.6 million metric tons in 2024.

Gabon is also the largest source of US manganese imports at 63 percent in 2024 compared to 23 percent from South Africa.

Eramet’s Moanda mine is a centerstone of the country’s manganese mining sector and it is based on one of the world’s richest manganese deposits. Eramet is the world’s second largest miner of high-grade manganese ore and operates the mine through its subsidiary COMILOG. In response to an oversupplied market, Eramet temporarily paused production at Moanda in the fourth quarter of 2024, but it has since recommenced.

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Trump Administration Strikes 50/50 Minerals Deal with Ukraine

The Trump administration has finalized a profit-sharing agreement with Ukraine that will give the US a 50 percent stake in future revenues from the war-torn country’s stores of critical minerals.

At the heart of the deal, announced on Wednesday (April 30), is a set of materials that are foundational to both economic growth and national security, including graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium and uranium.

The deal also covers the 17 rare earth elements, which are key components in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies like wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles and modern weapons systems.

According to US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, the deal is part of Washington’s broader vision for “a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.”

“President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine,” Bessent added in a statement.

While emphasizing a commitment to peace in Ukraine, he also issued a warning: any entity ‘who financed or supplied the Russian war machine’ will be barred from taking part in Ukraine’s reconstruction, a thinly veiled reference to Russia’s state-backed energy and mining sectors, as well as Chinese firms with close ties to Moscow.

The US currently imports many key minerals. The US Geological Survey states that of the 50 minerals it classifies as “critical,” the country is 100 percent import-dependent on 12 of them, and more than 50 percent dependent on 16 others.

Meanwhile, China has established near-total dominance over global rare earths production and refining, raising alarms in western capitals about overreliance on a strategic rival.

Ukraine, in contrast, is sitting on a potential treasure trove. The Ukrainian government says it has deposits of 22 of the 50 critical minerals the US deems critical, including some of the world’s largest graphite and lithium reserves.

Many of these resources are located in the country’s eastern and southern regions, some of which remain under Russian occupation and are worth an estimated US$500 billion in untapped reserves.

A deal born of conflict and eventual compromise

The minerals deal has a fraught history, with Trump originally pitching it as a way for the US to be “repaid” for military assistance provided to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Trump claims the US has sent over US$350 billion in aid, a figure far higher than the official tally of US$183 billion listed on the US government’s own Ukraine Oversight webpage.

That early version of the agreement collapsed after a tense Oval Office meeting on February 28, during which Trump blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for failing to prevent Russia’s invasion.

Negotiations were revived following a more conciliatory conversation between the two leaders during Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome. Since then, Trump has softened his public rhetoric toward Kyiv while sharpening criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has dismissed Trump’s ceasefire overtures.

Speaking at a White House cabinet meeting on the day the deal was signed, Trump defended the agreement as a necessary course correction after years of what he described as “throwing money out the window.”

“We had no security, we had no nothing — just pouring money there, unsecured money,” Trump said. “So I said, ‘Well, we want something for our efforts beyond what you would think to be acceptable.’”

The final version of the deal, confirmed by Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, establishes a joint development fund with equal 50/50 profit sharing. “It is important that the agreement will become a signal to other global players that it is reliable to cooperate with Ukraine in the long term — for decades,” she said in a post on X, also emphasizing that Kyiv will retain sovereign control over resource management.

Still, the negotiations came down to the wire. Bessent admitted that Ukrainian officials had proposed last-minute changes, delaying the signing until the afternoon.

The precise terms of the final accord remain under wraps, and the treasury department has declined to release a full copy, despite reporting from the Washington Post and the Kyiv Independent on key provisions.

Opportunities and risks moving forward

While Trump has portrayed the agreement as a personal victory and proof of his commitment to “peace through strength,” some analysts caution that the US-Ukraine minerals partnership could be vulnerable to future instability.

Ed Verona, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, has warned that “few serious US investors will put their shareholders’ money at risk based on such a clearly unbalanced ‘deal.’”

Verona cited Russia’s own resource history as a cautionary tale. “Production sharing agreements signed during the difficult transitional period of the 1990s were subsequently repudiated by Putin’s regime, with Western partners forced to surrender control and majority ownership in major projects,” he said.

Moreover, with no security guarantees attached to the deal, Ukraine’s ability to develop its resource sector could still be jeopardized by continued fighting, especially as some of the most mineral-rich regions remain under Russian control.

As the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, approaches, where Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Zelenskyy are expected to meet again, western unity on Ukraine’s reconstruction will be under scrutiny.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Tesla denies report that the EV maker is looking to replace Elon Musk

Shares of Tesla were flat in premarket trading Thursday after the EV maker denied a Wall Street Journal report that its board was searching for a replacement for chief executive Elon Musk.

The report, citing comments from sources familiar with the discussions, said that Tesla’s board members reached out to several executive search firms to work on a formal process for finding the company’s next CEO. Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on trading platform Robinhood following the news, before paring losses.

Tesla chair Robyn Denholm wrote on the social media platform X that the report was “absolutely false.”

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company,” she wrote.

Elon Musk during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Wednesday.Evan Vucci / AP

“This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published). The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead.”It comes after a sharp drop in the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits, with its top and bottom lines missing estimates in the first quarter. Musk has admitted that his involvement with the Trump administration could be hurting the automaker’s stock price.

The mega-billionaire said on a Tesla earnings call last week that he plans to spend just a “day or two per week” running the so-called Department of Government Efficiency beginning in May.Tesla’s total revenue slipped 9% year-on-year to hit $19.34 billion in the January-March quarter. This falls short of the $21.11 billion forecast by analysts, LSEG data shows.

Revenue from its automotive segment declined 20% year-on-year to $14 billion, as the company needed to update lines at its four vehicle factories to start making a refreshed version of its popular Model Y SUV. Tesla also attributed the decline to lower average selling prices and sales incentives as a drag on revenue and profit.

Its net income plunged 71% to $409 million, or 12 cents a share, from $1.39 billion or 41 cents a year ago.

Since the start of the year, its shares have plunged over 30%.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Amazon is stepping up to fill a gap in Hollywood’s movie slate

Tech is saving Hollywood — though not in the way you might think.

Back in 2022, e-commerce giant and relative upstart movie studio Amazon promised to spend around $1 billion each year on theatrical releases, a figure that would fund between 12 and 15 films annually. Today, it appears ready to deliver.

Earlier this month, the company, which operates the streaming platform Prime Video and recently acquired MGM studios, took the stage at CinemaCon in Las Vegas to tout its line-up of movies made just for the big screen.

Amazon’s inaugural presentation at the annual convention of Cinema United — previously known as the National Association of Theatre Owners — wowed exhibitors, marketers and media in attendance with flashy trailers and first-look footage from upcoming films like “Project Hail Mary,” “After the Hunt” and “Verity.”

It also brought some star power with the likes of Ryan Gosling, Andrew Garfield, Julia Roberts, Chris Pratt, Chris Hemsworth, Hugh Jackman and Michael B. Jordan set to headline these cinematic releases.

“I thought the presentation was incredible,” said Brock Bagby, president and chief content, programming and development officer at B&B Theatres. “For their first year out, they pulled out all the stops.”

While the studio won’t have a full slate of more than a dozen films until 2026, it has steadily invested in theatrical content over the last few years. Amazon had one wide release, a film that played in more than 2,000 theaters, in 2023 and five in 2024. This year Amazon has only four wide releases on the calendar so far, but the company is slated to have 14 in 2026 and 16 in 2027.

This surge of theatrical content is just what the domestic box office needs. While blockbuster franchise films have been abundant in the wake of the pandemic, the overall number of wide releases has shrunk over the last decade. Even before Covid and dual Hollywood labor strikes slowed production down, Hollywood was making fewer and fewer movies each year, according to data from Comscore. 

Mid-budget movies — often in the drama, comedy and romantic comedy genres — began disappearing in the mid-2010s as studios sought to invest in bigger budget franchise flicks that could result in higher profits. The comparatively lower-budget films have since been predominantly redirected to streaming platforms in an effort to stock these services with more affordable content. 

Analysts project that the domestic box office has lost around $1 billion each year in total ticket sales as a result of that shift.

At the same time that studios were altering their film slates, movie houses were merging. The most recent union between the Walt Disney Company and 20th Century Fox, first announced in 2017 and finalized in early 2019, resulted in the loss of between 10 and 15 film releases annually, according to data from Comscore.

In 2015, 20th Century Fox released 17 films. After its acquisition, the pandemic and the strikes, it has released fewer than a half dozen titles each year.

“With consolidation in the past of some of the studios, the output numbers have decreased over the past few years, and with fewer releases there is less potential for box office and concession sales,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “More importantly movie theaters need new films to draw customers into their auditoriums.”

Amazon’s commitment to theatrical, alongside the emergence of smaller studios like Neon and A24, should help to close the gap left by 20th Century Fox’s acquisition.

“They’ve filled the gap that we’re missing from Fox, which is so exciting, and it looks like a similar slate to Fox, where there’s a few big titles, but a lot of that mid-range,” Bagby said.

What industry experts have discovered is that the strength of the box office doesn’t just rely on the success of franchise films — superhero flicks, big-budget action fare and the like — but also on the sheer volume and diversity of content.

There is a direct correlation between the number of theatrical releases and the strength of the overall box office. During the pandemic, the decline in box office ticket sales largely tracked nearly in lock step with the percentage decline in film releases.

“The number of movies being released continues to trend in the right direction,” said Michael O’Leary, CEO of Cinema United. “When considering wide releases at 2,000 or more locations, we saw 94 last year, but we expect at least 110 in 2025. Beyond that, distributors have secured release dates as far out as 2028 for movies with plenty of commercial potential.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS