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May 10, 2025

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Which Will Hit First: SPX 6100 or SPX 5100?

Last Friday, the S&P 500 finished the week just below 5700. The question going into this week was, “Will the S&P 500 get propelled above the 200-day?” And as I review the evidence after Friday’s close, I’m noting that the SPX is almost exactly where it was one week ago!

That’s right–after all the headlines, tariff tantrums, and earnings reports, the S&P 500 ended the week 0.4% below where it started. This “lack of conviction” week led me to post the following poll on X, asking followers to decide which they felt would happen first: a retest of the February 2025 high or a retest of the April 2025 low.

I was actually quite surprised that there wasn’t more optimism after April’s incredible rally phase, but you can see that 55% of respondents thought the February high around 6150 would be hit first. So unlike the AAII survey’s recent readings, there appear to be more bulls than bears out there.

Based on this week’s extended choppiness, I thought it might be good to revisit an approach called “probabilistic analysis” to consider four potential paths for the S&P 500 between now and late June 2025. Basically, I’ll share four different scenarios, describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in January, and you need to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

Our most bullish scenario would mean that the aggressive rally phase off the April low would essentially continue in its current form. After perhaps the briefest of pullbacks at the 200-day moving average, we continue to the upside. This scenario would most likely mean the Magnificent 7 stocks would have to really find their mojo, with names like GOOGL, AAPL, and AMZN finally breaking through their 200-day moving averages.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 stalls around the 200-day, with a pullback that inspires even more indecision among investors? Perhaps we are still in “wait and see” mode as some tariff negotiations prove fruitful, but empty shipping containers remind consumers of the prospects of chronic inflation.  By mid-June, we’re no closer to a real clear sense of direction than we are today.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Because of the time frame I’ve selected, there won’t be another Fed meeting until after this period is over. So, what if inflation data starts to imply real price issues, consumer sentiment really starts to falter, and the Fed is unable to take any meaningful action to address mounting concerns? If we fail to push above the 200-day moving average soon, then 5500 would be a likely area of support on the way down.  This scenario brings us right back down to that level.

Dave’s vote: 40%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a bear case, and this one would entail a new distribution phase that takes the major benchmarks down to retest the April low. I’d say a reasonable downside objective would be 5100, and we’ll spend the month of June debating whether we’re forming a huge double bottom pattern or see another bounce higher. Defensive sectors shine as investors rotate big time to risk-off positions.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Investment Portfolio Feeling Stagnant? Transform Your Path Today

When your investment portfolio isn’t gaining ground, it’s natural to feel uneasy, especially in a market that lacks direction. A headline-driven environment only adds to the uneasiness, making it more difficult to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

This is a challenging situation for investors. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is still hovering close to its “Liberation Day” level, struggling to break above it. Of the three major indexes, the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was able to break above the April 2 levels, but is having a hard time reaching its March 25 high, which, as of this writing, aligns with its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

What’s Behind the Lack of Direction?

Much of the market’s indecision centers on uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Trade deals are front and center in the news, with the most important one being with China. Those talks kick off this weekend. While President Trump’s suggestion of lowering the tariffs against China from 145% to 80% was a step, stocks didn’t react much. It’s still a very high rate and probably not what investors wanted to hear, and thus the market ultimately closed lower on Friday.

The S&P 500’s recent trading behavior reflects the uncertainty. In the last seven trading days, movement has been muted, a drastic change from the wide-ranging days of early April (see chart below). Of late, any optimistic news gets investors a little upbeat, but the enthusiasm fades quickly. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The last seven days are narrow range days, unlike the wide-ranging days from early April.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes

Sector performance isn’t showing clear dominance either. On strong days, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Communication Services take the lead. On weaker days, defensive areas like Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples step in. This flip-flopping suggests investors lack conviction.

Mid and Small-Caps: Gaining Momentum

The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) and S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) posted five straight weeks of gains. This was picked up from the Market Summary page (Equities panel, weekly streak column). This warrants a closer look at these two asset groups.

Mid-cap stocks are showing slight signs of recovery. In the weekly chart of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, the index is approaching a near-term resistance level (blue dashed line), the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is trending higher, and there’s no consistent move in the Advance-Decline Percent or Advance-Decline Volume Percent.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 400 MID-CAP INDEX. There are signs of the start of an upside move, but far from confirmed. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The weekly chart of the S&P 600 Small Cap Index mirrors the behavior in $MID—$SML is trading above its 10-week simple moving average, the percentage of stocks trading above its 200-day moving average is rising, and there’s a slight increase in the Volume Advance-Decline Percent.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX. Similar to the chart in Figure 2, small-cap stocks are also showing slight signs of a potential rally, although it’s a long way away from confirming an uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Mid- and small-cap stocks didn’t participate much in the large-cap Mag 7 bull rally. Maybe things are beginning to look better for these stocks, especially if large-cap growth stocks get bogged down by tariffs.

Looking at the three-month performance across the S&P Sector ETFs, Utilities and Consumer Staples are the best performers, followed by Real Estate and Industrials.

FIGURE 4. THREE-MONTH PERFCHART OF S&P SECTOR ETFS. Consumer Staples and Utilities are the top performers over the last three months, followed by Real Estate and Industrials.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If your portfolio leans heavily toward mid- and small-cap stocks, it may be worth monitoring the performance of these groups. These stocks can rally quickly, but can also fade just as quickly. If you’ve been holding on to those stocks for over a decade, a big upside move could offer an opportunity to take profits or re-evaluate your portfolio.

The Bottom Line: Be Prepared

Next week promises a slew of market-moving news: earnings reports, trade deals, and key inflation data. It may be best to stay on the sidelines until the market digests the news. However, if you see a chance to take profits or reduce risk, don’t let them slip away.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 0.47% on the week, at 5659.91, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.16% on the week at 41,249.38; Nasdaq Composite down 0.27% on the week at 17,928.92.
  • $VIX down 3.44% on the week, closing at 21.90.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Health Care
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Applovin Corp. (APP)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with several small and mid-cap companies reporting.
  • April Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • April Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • April Retail Sales
  • Fed speeches from Powell, Jefferson, Daly, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Investing in Uranium ETFs: 9 Options for Uranium Exposure

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the fastest-growing investment vehicles, and as uranium’s role in the energy transition grows, investors are becoming increasingly interested in uranium ETFs and related products.

After years of dormancy, the uranium spot price zoomed past the US$100 per pound level in early 2024 on supply risks and a strong outlook for long-term demand. Although it’s since pulled back, bulls believe it still has room to run.

Supporting factors include the lack of new uranium mines, Russia’s dominance in conversion and enrichment, rising demand for low-carbon energy sources and the continued development and deployment of small modular reactors.

There is also increasing demand for uranium from China and India as both of these countries grapple with air pollution in the face of growing electricity demand. China is working to expand its nuclear power capacity, and although it ranks among the top 10 uranium-producing countries, it relies heavily on uranium imports.

Compounded, these factors are creating a mounting supply deficit.

“This year, uranium mines will only supply 75 percent of demand, so 25 percent of demand is uncovered,” Amir Adnani, CEO and president of Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC), said at a January 2025 event.

Although the fundamentals are promising, the U3O8 spot price has faced pressure in 2025, with prices below US$80 since the start of the year. As supply tightens, incentivizing new projects to come online is becoming imperative.

“Next year, uranium demand is going up because there are 65 reactors under construction, and we haven’t even started talking about small and advanced modular reactors,” Adnani said. “Small and advanced modular reactors are an additional source of demand that, maybe not next year, but within the next three to four years, can become a reality.”

As mentioned, that backdrop is helping uranium ETFs and related investment products gain steam. Today there are five uranium ETFs available, as well as four investment vehicles backed by physical uranium — and perhaps more to come.

Read on to learn about the uranium ETFs and related vehicles on offer. All data was current as of May 5, 2025.

Uranium ETFs tracking uranium stocks

1. Global X Uranium ETF (ARCA:URA)

Total asset value: US$2.7 billion

The Global X Uranium ETF tracks a basket of uranium miners, as well as nuclear component producers.

The fund has an expense ratio of 0.69 percent and a yearly return of negative 17.23 percent, a decline that coincides with the recent pullback in the uranium price.

Uranium companies account for a significant portion of its portfolio, and nearly half of those companies are Canadian. The ETF’s top two uranium company holdings are major uranium producer Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) at a weight of 22.31 percent and NexGen Energy (TSX:NXE) at 5.64 percent. Interestingly, one of its top three holdings is the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX:U.U) at a weight of 8.52 percent.

2. Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (ARCA:URNM)

Total asset value: US$1.32 billion

The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF includes both uranium producers and explorers for broader exposure. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.75 percent and a yearly return of negative 34.69 percent.

Uranium stocks with market caps under US$2 billion account for 48.7 percent of the ETF’s holdings. Its top three holdings are Cameco at 15.28 percent, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust at 13.21 percent and Kazatomprom (LSE:59OT,OTC Pink:NATKY) at 12.99 percent.

3. VanEck Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF (ARCA:NLR)

Total asset value: US$1.02 billion

The VanEck Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF launched in 2007 and tracks a market-cap-weighted index of stocks in the uranium and nuclear energy industries. Its expense ratio is 0.61 percent and its yearly return is negative 0.12 percent.

This uranium ETF’s top three holdings are Constellation Energy Group (NASDAQ:CEG) at a weight of 8.49 percent, Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE:PEG) at 7.38 percent and Endesa (OTC Pink:ELEZF,SSE:ELE) at 6.95 percent.

4. Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (NASDAQ:URNJ)

Total asset value: US$232.29 million

The Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF launched in February 2023, making it one of the newest additions to the uranium ETF universe. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.8 percent and a yearly return of negative 15.51 percent.

It tracks the NASDAQ Sprott Junior Uranium Miners Index (INDEXNASDAQ:NSURNJ), which follows small-cap uranium companies. The fund’s 33 holdings are all uranium mining, development or exploration companies. Its top three holdings are Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN,OTCQX:PALAF) at 12.46 percent, Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) at 10.32 percent and NexGen Energy at 10.25 percent.

5. Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF (TSX:HURA)

Total asset value: US$55.08 million

The Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF was Canada’s first pure-play uranium ETF and provides exposure to uranium industry growth. It has an expense ratio of 1.06 percent and a yearly return of negative 25.2 percent.

Created in 2019, the fund’s top holdings are Cameco with a weight of 20.68 percent, Kazatomprom at a weight of 17.12 percent and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust at 15.25 percent.

Physical uranium investment vehicles

1. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX:U.U)

Total asset value: US$4.09 billion

Of all the uranium-focused funds, this one has created the most buzz. Launched in July 2021, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust quickly made its mark on the sector, stoking investor interest and prices for the commodity.

The fund holds 66.22 million pounds of U3O8, has an expense ratio of 0.64 percent and has a yearly return of negative 34.57 percent.

2. Yellow Cake (LSE:YCA,OTCQB:YLLXF)

Total asset value: US$983.66 million

Founded in 2018, Yellow Cake is a uranium company that provides investment exposure to the uranium spot price through its physical holdings of uranium and uranium-related commercial activities.

Yellow Cake’s current holdings total 21.68 million pounds of U3O8. Its access to material volumes of uranium at prevailing market prices comes via its long-term partnership with Kazatomprom. Through this partnership, it has the option to purchase up to US$100 million of uranium annually through 2027.

3. Zuri-Invest Uranium AMC

Total asset value: US$1.65 billion

Launched in April 2023, Zuri-Invest’s product is directly linked to physical uranium, and is the first actively managed certificate (AMC) in the sector. According to Zuri-Invest, “an AMC is a security that can be managed on a discretionary basis enabling the active management of a chosen investment strategy.”

Qualified non-US institutional and professional investors can take part in this physical uranium AMC (Swiss ISIN code CH1214916533) through their bank. The custodian of the product is Cameco, which holds the physical uranium in a secure storage facility in Canada.

4. xU3O8

Total asset value: US$5.93 million

One of the newest ways to gain exposure to physical uranium is through the token xU3O8.

Using the power of the Tezos blockchain and real-world asset tokenization, the xU3O8 token from uranium.io gives investors the ability to directly own and trade physical uranium. Launched in 2024, xU3O8’s 38,464.62 kilograms of U3O8 are stored at a secure Cameco facility, with Archax acting as trustee.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Buffett Hands Over Reins, What’s Next for Berkshire’s Capital Strategy?

Legendary investor Warren Buffett is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A,NYSE:BRK.B) after six decades at the helm — but he’s still not yet ready to retire.

In a media release on Monday (May 5), Berkshire said that its board of directors unanimously has voted to appoint Greg Abel, vice chairman, non-insurance operations, as president and CEO come January 2026.

Buffett will remain the chairman of the board of directors.

Buffett has held the position of CEO at Berkshire since 1970, with Abel confirmed as his successor in 2021.

What is Buffett’s strategy?

Buffett took control of Berkshire in 1965, back when the company was a struggling textile manufacturer.

In a 2010 letter to shareholders, he recounted his experience in those early days:

‘Berkshire was then only intextiles, where it had in the previous decade lost significant money. The dumbest thing I could have done was topursue ‘opportunities’ to improve and expand the existing textile operation – so for years that’s exactly what Idid. And then, in a final burst of brilliance, I went out and bought another textile company. Aaaaaaargh!Eventually I came to my senses, heading first into insurance and then into other industries.’

Many people have tried to explain Buffett’s success in recent years. One recent Financial Times article titled “How Buffet Did It” notes that his strategy is “more than great stock picks and insurance premiums.”

An older paper called ‘Buffett’s Alpha’ suggests that his exposure to low-risk, cheap and high-quality stocks is key.

“(He) has boosted his returns by using leverage, and that he has stuck to a good strategy for a very long time period, surviving rough periods where others might have been forced into a fire sale or a career shift,” states the paper, which was written by Andrea Frazzini, David Kabiller and Lasse Heje Pedersen.

‘We estimate that Buffett applies a leverage of about 1.7-to-1, boosting both his risk and excess return in that proportion. Thus, his many accomplishments include having the conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk over a number of decades,’ the authors also note.

Who is Buffett’s successor?

Abel has been with Berkshire since 2000, when Berkshire bought MidAmerican, an energy company he had been running. He joined the board as vice chairman, non-insurance operations, in 2018.

MidAmerican was renamed Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), with Abel serving as its chief executive officer from 2008 to 2018. He remains the company’s chair as of writing. At both MidAmerican and Berkshire, Abel was mentored by David Sokol, who seemed a likely successor to Warren Buffett until he resigned from Berkshire in 2011.

Abel was named vice chairman in 2018 along with Ajit Jain. In a 2014 letter to shareholders, Buffett’s longtime right-hand man, Charlie Munger, who passed away in 2023, wrote about the two as potential successors.

‘Ajit Jain and Greg Abel are proven performers who would probably be under-described as ‘world-class.’ ‘World-leading’ would be the description I would choose,’ said Munger.

‘In some important ways, each is a better business executive than Buffett.’

Buffett has also spoken highly of Abel, saying in 2023, ‘Greg understands capital allocation as well as I do. That’s lucky for us. He will make those decisions, I think, very much in the same framework as I would make them. We have laid out that framework now for 30 years.’

Berkshire’s path forward under Abel

Buffett’s words indicate that he sees Berkshire and Abel following the framework he has laid out.

Of course, there may be some evolution. Morningstar analyst Gregg Warren notes that the ‘groundwork for a successful transition’ at Berkshire has been in place for decades.

He also notes that Buffett and Munger were skilled at acquiring businesses that were a good cultural fit.

“We expect this to continue, believing that Berkshire’s culture of management autonomy and entrepreneurship has become institutionalized,’ Warren explains in a recent article.

‘ However, the new managers will probably work with a slightly different opportunity set, and we believe they will evolve Berkshire from what has historically been a reinvestment machine into one that is more focused on returning capital to shareholders, which is what we would expect of a company of this size with limited investment opportunities.”

Warren also comments that Berkshire currently doesn’t pay a dividend. This principle is because of Buffett’s belief that retained earnings should yield greater value than cash payouts.

Warren said this may change after Abel takes over, underlining that issuing a dividend could help Berkshire retain shareholders who may consider selling once Buffett is no longer at the helm.

Berkshire’s recent activities include diversification of its portfolio via strategic acquisitions and investments.

In January 2025, Forest River Bus & Van, a Berkshire subsidiary, announced its acquisition of L.A. West Coaches to enhance its product portfolio in the luxury transportation market.

“This partnership represents a shared commitment to excellence and innovation,” said Douglas Wright, group general nanager of Forest River Bus & Van. “L.A. West Coaches’ proven expertise and dedication to quality align with our values, and we look forward to collaborating to expand our product range.”

BHE is also currently exploring the production of lithium carbonate and other minerals from its geothermal power plants in California’s Imperial Valley, aligning with the company’s interest in renewable energy and sustainability.

BHE Renewables publicized a joint venture with Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) in June 2024, saying that this will be useful for the demonstration and deployment of TerraLithium’s direct lithium extraction.

Occidental is the owner of TerraLithium, a company that provides a technology platform for extracting lithium from geothermal and other brines to produce ultra-pure battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate.

Once the demonstration is successful, BHE Renewables plans to build, own and operate commercial lithium production facilities in California’s Imperial Valley. The joint venture also plans to license the technology and develop commercial lithium production facilities outside the Imperial Valley.

Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com