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May 14, 2025

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Bullish Breadth Improvement Suggests Further Upside For Stocks

We’ve been cautious about the uptrend phase off the April low for a number of reasons, including the lack of breadth support.  While short-term measures of breadth had turned more positive, the long-term breadth conditions had remained firmly in the bearish realm.  With the renewed strength in risk assets over the last week, our long-term breadth measures now indicate a healthy uptrend phase.  

Today we’ll dive a little deeper into one of those breadth indicators, talk about why we track moving average breadth, and show how this recent bullish signal could be a sign of stronger price action to come.

Here we’re showing the S&P 500 on a closing basis along with its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.  Below that, we’re tracking the percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average, followed by the percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average.

Starting at the bottom, we can see that less than 10% of S&P 500 members were above their 50-day moving average at the April 2025 low.  The last time we had reached below the 10% level was back in October 2023, just before a significant market bottom.

While the surge in this short-term breadth indicator over the last month has suggested a tactical rally, the panel above shows how there were still less than 50% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average.  So most stocks had regained the short-term moving average, but were still languishing below the long-term moving average.

As risk assets have surged higher this week, it’s meant enough upside momentum that now most S&P 500 members are back above their 200-day moving average.  Now let’s look at a longer-term time frame and consider previous instances where this long-term moving average breadth indicator has gone from below 25% to above 50%.

We’ve identified eight occurrences of this pattern since the 2009 market low.  In all eight occurrences, the S&P 500 has experienced positive returns in the next 12 months.  And with the exception of the signal in October 2015, we haven’t seen any retest of the previous swing low.

Let’s dig into that 2015 example a little further, and you’ll see what differentiated that particular signal from all the others.

In all the other occurrences, the S&P 500 broke above its 200-day moving average and held that crucial level of support.  In Q4 2015, however, the S&P 500 failed to hold the 200-day moving average, and the breadth indicators soon rotated back to a bearish phase.

It took another attempt in March 2016 before the chart finally resolved to the upside, with the S&P 500 leaving the 200-day moving average behind as it continued to push higher.  Breadth indicators continued to improve as investors began to believe in the bull market of 2016.

I was taught that “nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average,” which also implies that good things can definitely happen above this long-term trend barometer.  At this point, given the bullish breadth rotation that we’ve observed off the April low, I would say that as long as the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average, then we stand a serious chance of further upside from here.

If, however, the SPX fails to hold this crucial line of support, and the index falls back below the 5750 level, then we may be looking at more of a 2015-style retracement as fears rise and stocks drop.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Tariff Tensions Ease, Nasdaq Soars — But is SMH the Emerging Leader?

For months, investors have been on edge over U.S.-China tariff tensions, bracing for everything from fears of empty shelves to rising prices. But after this weekend’s trade talks, where both sides agreed to temporary tariff cuts (emphasis on temporary), stocks surged.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) jumped 1,160 points, while the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) rallied 3.26% and 4.35%, respectively.

Monday’s rally sparked hopes that the worst may be over. Yet analysts remain split: some see signs of a bottom, while others warn this 90-day pause is just the start of a long, messy negotiation.

So here’s the critical question: If this is the bottom, which sector (or industry) leads the rebound, and is it worth investing in it right now? For investors, the answer could be the difference between riding the next bull wave or watching it pass by.

Nasdaq-100 Shows Strength, but Which Sector Leads?

Checking StockCharts’ Market Summary midday on Monday, the Breadth panel showed that the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) had the most percentage of stocks (62%) trading above their 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating early strength and recovery (displayed in the Moving Averages tab).

FIGURE 1. MARKET SUMMARY – INDICES TRADING ABOVE 20 TO 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES. The Nasdaq 100 is the most bullish index above the 200-day, warranting a closer examination.

About 51% of the Nasdaq 100 is made up of Information Technology stocks, while Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services together account for roughly 31% of the index.

Information Technology Dominates the Index

To get a clearer sense of market breadth, it’s useful to examine the sector-level Bullish Percent Index (BPI), which shows the percentage of stocks within each sector exhibiting technical strength.

FIGURE 2. MARKET SUMMARY SECTOR BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. While many sectors have bullish BPIs, the tech sector is leading.

While Communications and Discretionary are exhibiting technical strength, the Information Technology sector is leading the pack, with over 91% of stocks triggering Point & Figure buy signals.

Semiconductors: The Bellwether to Watch

While tech is also comprised of various industries, only one—semiconductors—is widely regarded as a “bellwether” industry. Shifting over to the US Industries panel, semiconductors displayed the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR).

FIGURE 3. BELLWETHER INDUSTRY SCTR SCORES. Among the bellwether industries listed, chipmakers are outpacing everything else.

While my threshold for bullish SCTR reading is 76, the semiconductor industry is the only bellwether industry that clears that bar.

But what might the performance of the Nasdaq 100, semiconductor, and broader market performance look like side by side? To answer this question, I plotted all three on a one-year PerfCharts view.

 FIGURE 4. PERFCHARTS OF SEMICONDUCTORS, NASDAQ 100, AND THE S&P 500. Here, semiconductors aren’t looking so hot, being the laggard of the bunch.

Using VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as the industry proxy, you can see that SMH was leading the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 last summer, but began lagging the two indexes starting in November. SMH was the hardest hit in the aftermath of the Trump tariffs, and, while it’s recovering, its performance is still trailing both indices.

This raises two key questions: First, is SMH’s upswing a true recovery or a temporary bounce? And second, is it worth investing in SMH in this stage of the cycle (in other words, does it present an opportunity to catch an uptrend early on)?

Weekly Chart Signals: Bear Market Drop or Recovery?

Let’s take a closer look at SMH, starting with a weekly chart.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF SMH. From a primary trend perspective, one that can last years, the uptrend is arguably intact, though facing challenges.

Here are the key points to look at:

  • SMH is trading above the 40-week SMA (equivalent to a 200-day SMA) following a sharp price gap up. But can it hold above that level?
  • SMH plunged 39.8% from its 2024 high of around $280 to the 2025 low of $170. This is a textbook bear market drop that raises the question: Is this latest surge just a bear market rally?
  • On the other hand, a long-term Fibonacci Retracement measured from the 2022 low to the 2024 high found support at the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. This kind of pullback is not only “normal”, but also supports the view that SMH’s bullish “primary trend” is still intact.
  • However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is signaling weak buying pressure. For the rally to continue, there needs to be stronger accumulation, something the CMF has yet to confirm.

Daily Chart View: Support, Resistance, and Warning Signs

After looking at SMH from a broader scale, what might the price action reveal if we were to zoom in using a daily chart?

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Zooming in, SMH’s situation looks even less bullish.

This chart tells a tougher story: SMH looks ready to re-enter the months-long trading range it broke to the downside in March.

Should You Invest In SMH? Here’s What to Watch

To answer this question, here’s some points you might want to focus on:

For one, note how closely the stochastic oscillator cycles mirror SMH’s fluctuations. With a reading above 96, SMH may be due for a near-term pullback.

Should it pull back, SMH will need to remain above or bounce at the $210 support range (highlighted in blue) for the current, albeit small, uptrend to remain intact. Below that, it might bounce at the consecutive swing lows—$185 and $170—but such a deep pullback indicates weakness and raises the possibility that SMH may slip back into the trading range (highlighted in yellow) that dominated a lengthy five-month period.

On the upside, SMH needs to eventually clear that same range before challenging its all-time highs at the $281 level. If SMH manages to do so, it’s likely to unfold in a series of higher highs and higher lows, which will take some time to develop.

At the Close: A Bullish Setup or Bull Trap?

While SMH has begun to exhibit significant technical strength, warning signs remain. If you’re bullish on semiconductors, the next few weeks will be critical. Holding the $210 support zone is key for keeping the uptrend intact. A drop toward $185 or $170 would raise serious doubts about the sustainability of the current rally.

If SMH can clear its trading range and build a structure of higher highs and higher lows, it could be poised to challenge its all-time highs once again. Until then, stay cautious and keep a close eye on the technical levels discussed above.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is prone to price volatility, with wide swings to the upside and downside, making it difficult for investors to know when the right time to buy the top crypto is.

There has been renewed interest in cryptocurrencies following the election of US President Donald Trump, leading the Bitcoin price to soar to new heights in late 2024, as investors and other industry insiders speculated on how the Trump administration’s policies could grow the sector and encourage mainstream adoption.

Trump ran on a platform that promised to make the US the Bitcoin capital of the world, vowing to establish a national reserve for the asset, and several states have already introduced legislation to create similar reserves within their borders.

The price of Bitcoin pulled back to under US$100,000 in February 2025 and fell as low as US$75,000 by April 9, marking a strong buying opportunity for crypto investors. Bitcoin has since rebounded, and on May 9 topped US$100,000 for the first time since early February.

Meanwhile, institutions and businesses like Michael Saylor’s Strategy have continued to buy Bitcoin by the millions, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain popular.

This surge of interest paints a bullish picture of Bitcoin’s continued growth. However, buying Bitcoin isn’t a simple decision. Read on to learn the basics of Bitcoin fundamentals, price forecasts and methods for determining if now’s the right time to buy Bitcoin, including several popular technical trading indicators you should know.

In this article

    What gives Bitcoin its value? 5 factors to know

    Before you decide if Bitcoin is a good investment for you, you need to understand Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

    Bitcoin was the world’s first cryptocurrency, created in January 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto.

    Conceived as a virtual alternative to fiat currency, Bitcoin is built atop blockchain technology, which it uses for both validation and security. Blockchain itself is a distributed digital ledger of transactions, operating through a combination of private keys, public keys and network consensus.

    The best analogy to explain how this works in practice involves Google Docs. Imagine a document that’s shared with a group of collaborators. Everyone has access to the same document, and each collaborator can see the edits other collaborators have made. If anyone makes an edit that the other collaborators don’t approve of, they can roll it back.

    Going back to Bitcoin, the virtual currency primarily validates transactions through proof of work. Also known as Bitcoin mining, this competitive and incredibly resource-intensive process is the means by which new Bitcoins are generated.

    How it works is deceptively simple. Each Bitcoin transaction adds a new ‘block’ to the ledger, identified by a 64-digit encrypted hexadecimal number known as a hash. Each block uses the block immediately preceding it to generate its hash, creating a ledger that theoretically cannot be tampered with. Bitcoin miners collectively attempt to guess the encrypted hex code for each new block — whoever correctly identifies the hash then validates the transaction and receives a small amount of Bitcoins as a reward.

    From an investment perspective, Bitcoin toes the line between being a medium of exchange and a speculative digital asset. It also lacks any central governing body to regulate its distribution. As one might expect, these factors together make Bitcoin quite volatile, and therefore somewhat risky as an investment target.

    As for the source of this volatility, Bitcoin’s value is primarily influenced by five factors.

    1. Supply and demand

    It’s widely known that no more than 21 million Bitcoins can be produced, and that’s unlikely to happen before 2140.

    Only a certain number of Bitcoins are released each year, and this rate is reduced every four years by halving the reward for Bitcoin mining. The last of these ‘halvings’ occurred in April 2024 and the next one is due sometime in 2028. When it happens, there may be a significant increase in Bitcoin demand, largely driven by media coverage and investor interest.

    Bitcoin demand is also strengthening in countries experiencing currency devaluation and high inflation.

    It would be remiss not to mention that Bitcoin represents an ideal mechanism for supporting illicit activities — meaning that increasing cybercrime could itself be a demand driver.

    2. Production costs

    It’s said that Bitcoin benefits from minimal production costs. This isn’t exactly true, however. Solving even a single hash requires immense processing power, and it’s believed that crypto mining collectively uses more electricity than some small countries. It’s also believed that miners were largely responsible for the chip shortage experienced throughout the pandemic due to buying and burning out vast quantities of graphics cards.

    These costs together have only a minimal influence on Bitcoin’s overall value. The complexity of Bitcoin’s hashing algorithms and the fact that they can vary wildly in complexity are far more impactful.

    3. Competition

    Bitcoin’s cryptocurrency market share has sharply declined over the years. In 2017, it maintained a market share of over 80 percent. Bitcoin’s current market share is just over 60 percent.

    Despite that fall, Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market and is the marker by which many other cryptocurrencies determine their value. However, there is no guarantee that this will always remain the case. There are now scores of Bitcoin alternatives, known collectively as altcoins, which you can learn more about here.

    The most significant alternative to Bitcoin is Ethereum. Currently accounting for roughly 10 percent of the crypto market, Ethereum has long maintained its position as the second largest cryptocurrency. Some experts have suggested that Ethereum may even overtake Bitcoin, but others don’t see that as a possibility in the near future.

    4. Regulations

    Bitcoin may itself be unregulated, but it is not immune to the effects of government legislation. For instance, China’s 2021 ban of the cryptocurrency caused a sharp price drop, though it quickly rallied in the following months. The European Union has also attempted to ban Bitcoin in the past, and Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Venture, accused the US of trying to do the same in February 2023.

    There has been plenty of discussion surrounding the role of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in regulating Bitcoin and other crypto as investment assets. The US made progress in establishing crypto legislation in 2024 when the House passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act in a bipartisan 279 to 136 vote on May 22 of last year. While that act has yet to make further progress, the new Trump administration has already loosened some crypto regulation with regards to crypto reporting for banks and decentralized finance businesses.

    5. Public interest and media coverage

    As with any speculative commodity, Bitcoin is greatly influenced by the court of public opinion.

    Perhaps the best example of this occurred in 2021. At that time, a tweet from Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk caused Bitcoin’s price to drop by 30 percent in a single day. This also wiped about US$365 billion off the cryptocurrency market.

    A more recent example occurred on January 9, 2024, leading up to the deadline for eight spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In a since-deleted post on X, formerly known as Twitter, a hacker falsely stated that the SEC had approved all eight pending Bitcoin ETFs. This caused the price of Bitcoin to spike to US$48,000, but it quickly dropped back down to around US$46,000 after the SEC confirmed it was a hack, leading some analysts to consider it a ‘sell-the-news’ event.

    Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

    The current US administration is crypto friendly, and Bitcoin and altcoins are seeing support in 2025. Could they go even higher, or should you wait for a dip to buy? Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, which can make it difficult to judge where the crypto is going next, but there are several strategies to help investors decide when to invest.

    To determine if it is a good time to invest in Bitcoin, investors should pay attention to the market and listen to the experts, as generally speaking, Bitcoin’s price action is sentiment-driven. To keep on top of big news in the sector, follow our frequent Crypto Market Updates, which drop several times a week.

    There are also different technical indicators that crypto traders use to help them decide if now is the time to buy or sell Bitcoin. We run through some popular indicators below.

    For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator used to gauge the momentum of a cryptocurrency’s price. It fluctuates on a scale from 0 to 100. By analyzing the magnitude of recent price changes relative to the previous 12-month period, the RSI helps traders identify whether a cryptocurrency is potentially overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70 often signals an overbought market, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold market.

    Another metric to consider is the MVRV Z-score, calculated by subtracting the ‘realized’ value of Bitcoin, which is an average of the prices at which each Bitcoin was last moved, from the current market value. This is then divided by the standard deviation of the Bitcoin market cap.

    This indicator helps identify when market value deviates strongly from realized value, which could show the market is at a turning point. A score above 7 likely indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued, meaning it could be due for a correction, while a score below 0 suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued, meaning it could be a good buying opportunity.

    Finally, to gauge the overall market sentiment, investors can look at the Fear & Greed Index. This index provides a snapshot of how optimistic or fearful the market is about Bitcoin, with high readings potentially signaling overenthusiasm and a possible correction.

    While it’s useful to learn these technical indicators to help you trade, it is important to remember that there’s no such thing as a guaranteed investment, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies. On the one hand, there’s virtually no chance that Bitcoin will experience a crash to zero. On the other hand, we also cannot take for granted that its value will continue to climb.

    What is Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook?

    For those considering Bitcoin as a long-term investment, it’s worth considering experts’ thoughts on Bitcoin in the future.

    Veteran analyst Peter Brandt said in February 2024 that if Bitcoin could break past its previous high, the cryptocurrency could easily reach a new record of US$200,000 by September 2025.

    Only two weeks after the interview, Bitcoin surpassed the US$72,000 mark in the early hours of March 11. On December 4, one month after the US presidential election, Bitcoin reached US$100,000 for the first time, an elusive target it has surpassed a handful of times since.

    Not everyone is so optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftx, has expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s future in the context of continued geopolitical upheaval and economic uncertainty.

    Billionaire investor Warren Buffet, meanwhile, has not minced words regarding his opinion on Bitcoin and its future. According to Buffet, Bitcoin is an unproductive asset with no unique value. He also feels that it doesn’t count as a true currency — in fact, he called it “rat poison.” Moreover, he believes that the crypto market as a whole will end badly.

    Regardless of whether you believe Bitcoin’s proponents or naysayers, it’s clear that it has some incredibly prominent backers in both the investment world and the wider business landscape. Business analytics platform Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is by far the largest public company in the Bitcoin space, with 568,840 Bitcoin to its name as of May 13, 2025. The next three public companies with the largest Bitcoin holdings are Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) with 48,237 Bitcoin, Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) with 19,211, Tesla with 11,509 and Hut 8 (NASDAQ:HUT) with 10,264.

    The US, China and the United Kingdom hold the top three spots for countries with the most Bitcoin holdings, with 207,189, 194,000 and 61,000 Bitcoin respectively at that time.

    There are also plenty of individuals with large holdings, the most significant of which is believed to be Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Other prominent names include Michael Saylor, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and Tim Draper.

    How to smartly invest in Bitcoin?

    To help increase the odds of crypto being a good investment, investors in the Bitcoin market should learn the basics of safely investing in Bitcoin.

    How to buy Bitcoin

    The good news is that investing in Bitcoin is actually quite simple. If you’re purchasing through a stockbroker, it’s a similar process to buying shares of a company. Otherwise, you may need to gather your personal information and bank account details. It’s recommended to secure your network with a VPN prior to performing any Bitcoin transactions.

    The first step in purchasing Bitcoin is to join an exchange. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is one of the most popular, but there’s also Kraken and Bybit. If you’re an advanced trader outside the US, you might consider Bitfinex.

    Once you’ve chosen an exchange, you’ll need a crypto wallet. Many first-time investors choose a software-based or ‘hot’ wallet either maintained by their chosen crypto exchange or operated by a service provider. While simpler to set up and more convenient overall, hot wallets tend to be less secure as they can be compromised by data breaches.

    Another option is a ‘cold’ wallet — a specialized piece of hardware specifically designed to store cryptocurrency. It’s basically a purpose-built flash drive. If you plan to invest large amounts in crypto, a cold wallet is the better option.

    Once you’ve acquired and configured your wallet, you may choose to connect either the wallet or your crypto exchange account to your bank account. This is not strictly necessary, and some seasoned investors don’t bother to do this.

    Finally, with your wallet fully configured and your exchange account set up, it’s time to place your order.

    Best practices for investing in Bitcoin

    The most important thing to remember about Bitcoin is that it is a high-risk asset. Treat Bitcoin as a means of slowly growing your existing wealth rather than an all-or-nothing gamble, and never invest money that you aren’t willing to lose..

    As with other investments, it’s important to hedge your portfolio. Alongside Bitcoin, you may want to consider investing in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, or perhaps an altcoin. You may also want to explore other blockchain-based investments, given that even the most stable cryptocurrencies tend to be fairly volatile.

    It’s also key to ignore the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies. Recall how many people whipped themselves into a frenzy over non-fungible tokens in 2022. More than 95 percent of the NFTs created during that time are now worthless.

    Make decisions based on your own market research and advice from trusted — and more importantly, certified — professionals. If you’re putting up investment capital based on an influencer’s tweets, you are playing with fire.

    You should also start small. A good rule of thumb is not to dedicate more than 10 percent of your overall capital to cryptocurrency. Even that number could be high — again, it’s all about moderation.

    Make sure to prioritize cybersecurity as well. Cryptocurrencies are an immensely popular target for cybercriminals. In addition to maintaining a cold wallet, make sure you practice proper security hygiene. That means using a VPN and a password manager while also exercising mindfulness in how you browse the web and what you download.

    Finally, make an effort to understand what cryptocurrencies are and how they work. One of the reasons Sam Bankman-Fried was able to run FTX as long as he did was because many of his investors didn’t fully understand what they were putting their money into. Don’t let yourself be fooled by buzzwords or lofty promises about Web3 and the metaverse.

    Do your research into the technology behind it all. That way, you’ll be far better equipped to recognize when something is a sound investment versus a bottomless money pit.

    Indirect crypto investing

    Given Bitcoin’s volatility, it’s understandable that you might be leery of making a direct investment. The good news is that you don’t have to. You can indirectly invest into the crypto space through mutual funds, stocks and ETFs.

    ETFs are a popular and flexible portfolio choice that allows investors to benefit from a sector’s performance without the need to directly own individual stocks or assets. They are an especially appealing option in the cryptocurrency market as the technical aspects of purchasing and holding these coins can be confusing and intimidating for the less technologically inclined.

    Bitcoin futures ETFs provide exposure to the cryptocurrency’s price moves using Bitcoin futures contracts, which stipulate that two parties will exchange a specific amount of Bitcoins for a particular price on a predetermined date.

    Conversely, spot Bitcoin ETFs aim to track the price of Bitcoin, and they do so by holding the asset. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been offered to Canadians since 2021, and there are now 13 Canadian cryptocurrency ETFs you can buy. Spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the US on January 11, 2024. For investors interested in blockchain technology, there are also several blockchain ETFs.

    Do a bit of research and touch base with your stockbroker or financial advisor before you go in this direction.

    Investor takeaway

    Bitcoin is a fascinating asset. Simultaneously a transactional tool and a speculative commodity, it’s attracted the attention of investors almost since it first hit the market. Unfortunately, it’s also incredibly volatile.

    For that reason, while current market conditions are favorable for anyone considering buying Bitcoin, it is an asset you should purchase only at your own risk. Because while Bitcoin may have the potential for significant returns, you may also lose most of your investment. If that knowledge doesn’t bother you, then by all means, purchase away.

    Otherwise, there are better — less volatile — options for your capital.

    FAQs for buying Bitcoin

    What does Cathie Wood say about Bitcoin?

    ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, telling Bloomberg in February 2023 that her firm believes the cryptocurrency could reach a value of US$1 million by 2030. A year later, Wood hiked her 2030 bitcoin price prediction astronomically to US$75 trillion.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

    Gold Price Drops Over US$100 as US and China Agree to Tariff Pause

    The US and China agreed on Monday (May 12) to pause the majority of their tariffs for a period of 90 days, marking a significant de-escalation in trade tensions between the two countries.

    The US will reduce its tariffs on most Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent; meanwhile, China will lower its tariffs on US goods by a similar amount, dropping them from 125 percent to 10 percent.

    In addition to the suspension of tariffs, a number of non-tariff measures will be suspended or reversed. These include removing rare earths export restrictions and taking some US tech and defense firms off trade blacklists.

    The US will maintain a 20 percent tariff geared at pressuring China to curb the flow of fentanyl to the US. The other 10 percent is the baseline levy that the US has imposed on imports from most nations.

    The Trump administration also said the lower tariff rate won’t apply to automobiles, steel and aluminum.

    The deal is expected to bring a resumption of shipments to west coast port cities like Los Angeles and Seattle. Recent data indicates a significant reduction in activity as tariffs have pushed the price of goods beyond what many importers can afford. Port activity has dropped to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains.

    Although the tariff pause is only temporary, the 90 day break will give the countries time to negotiate a more permanent deal and mitigate a growing trade war that began shortly after Donald Trump assumed the presidency in January.

    ‘Now, while the 90-day pause is a big step towards easing tensions, it’s crucial to remember that it doesn’t guarantee a complete resolution of the trade war,’ he explained.

    ‘Once those 90 days are up, everyone will be keeping a close eye on what happens next, especially the results of ongoing negotiations and whether the tariffs will be permanently cut or brought back.’

    Market response was mixed on Tuesday (May 13), with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) jumping 0.9 percent to reach 5,896 points in morning trading and the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) surging 1.75 percent to 21,231 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) went the opposite direction, shedding a half percent to 42,216 basis points.

    The gold price fell as low as US$3,208.80 per ounce on Monday, a drop of more than US$100 compared to last week’s closing price. It regained some ground on Tuesday and was trading in the US$3,250 range by 1:00 p.m EDT.

    The silver price also saw an immediate decline on Monday, but was trading in the US$33 per ounce range on Tuesday.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

    This post appeared first on investingnews.com

    Microsoft to cut 3% of its workforce

    Microsoft on Tuesday said that it’s laying off 3% of employees across all levels, teams and geographies.

    “We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company for success in a dynamic marketplace,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.

    The company reported better-than-expected results, with $25.8 billion in quarterly net income, and an upbeat forecast in late April.

    Microsoft had 228,000 employees worldwide at the end of June, meaning that the move will affect thousands of employees.

    It’s likely Microsoft’s largest round of layoffs since the elimination of 10,000 roles in 2023. In January the company announced a small round of layoffs that were performance-based. These new job cuts are not related to performance, the spokesperson said.

    One objective is to reduce layers of management, the spokesperson said. In January Amazon announced that it was getting rid of some employees after noticing “unnecessary layers” in its organization.

    Last week cybersecurity software provider CrowdStrike announced it would lay off 5% of its workforce.

    In January, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told analysts that the company would make sales execution changes that led to lower growth than expected in Azure cloud revenue that wasn’t tied to artificial intelligence. Performance in AI cloud growth outdid internal projections.

    “How do you really tweak the incentives, go-to-market?” Nadella said. “At a time of platform shifts, you kind of want to make sure you lean into even the new design wins, and you just don’t keep doing the stuff that you did in the previous generation.”

    On Monday, Microsoft shares stopped trading at $449.26, the highest price so far this year. They closed at a record $467.56 last July.

    This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

    Fintech company Chime files for Nasdaq IPO

    Financial technology company Chime on Tuesday filed paperwork to go public on the Nasdaq. The company intends to file under the ticker symbol “CHYM.”

    “Chime is a technology company, not a bank,” the company said in its prospectus, noting it’s not a member of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Still, the company cited Bank of America, Capital One, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Bank and Wells Fargo as competitors.

    Most of Chime’s new members who arrange for direct deposit previously did direct deposit elsewhere, “most commonly with large incumbent banks,” the company said.

    According to the filing, Chime picks up revenue from interchange fees associated with purchases that members make with Chime debit cards and credit cards. Banks collect interchange fees, which are generally a percentage of the transaction value, plus a set amount for each transaction depending on the rates determined by card networks such as Visa. The banks then pass money on to Chime.

    In the March quarter, Chime generated $12.4 million in net income on $518.7 million in revenue. Revenue grew 32%. At the end of March, Chime had 8.6 million active members, up about 23% year over year. Average revenue per active member, at $251, was up from $231. It has members in all 50 states, and 55% of them female. The average member age is 36.

    Around two-thirds of members look to Chime for their “primary financial relationship,” Chime said. The term refers to those who made at least 15 purchases using its card or received a qualifying direct deposit of at least $200 in the past calendar month.

    Chime offers a slew of other services in addition to its cards. Eligible members with direct deposit can borrow up to $500 with a fixed interest rate of $5 for every $100 borrowed. The company doesn’t charge late fees or compound interest.

    Following an extended drought, IPOs looked poised for a rebound when President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. CoreWeave’s March debut provided some momentum. But Trump’s tariff announcement in April roiled the market and led companies including Chime as well as trading platform eToro, online lender Klarna and ticket marketplace StubHub to delay their plans.

    EToro is now scheduled to debut this week, and digital health company Hinge Health issued its pricing range for its IPO on Tuesday, win an expected offering coming soon. Chime’s public filing is the latest sign that emerging tech companies are preparing to test the market’s appetite for risk. Last month Figma said it had filed confidentially for an initial public offering.

    Chris Britt, Chime’s co-founder and CEO, told CNBC in 2020 that it would be ready for an IPO within the next 12 months. But in late 2021 markets turned negative on technology as inflation picked up, prompting central bankers to ratchet up interest rates.

    Chime was founded in 2012 and is based in San Francisco. It ranked 22nd on CNBC’s 2024 Disruptor 50 list of privately held companies.

    Investors include Crosslink Capital, DST Global, General Atlantic, Iconic Strategic Partners and Menlo Ventures.

    — CNBC’s Ari Levy contributed to this report.

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