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May 17, 2025

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S&P 500 Now in Weakest Seasonal Period…Or Is It?

We’ve all heard the classic market maxim, “Sell in May and go away.”  For many investors, that’s the introduction to market seasonality that suggests a six month period where it’s just best to avoid stocks altogether.

Through my own experience, complemented with interviews with seasonality experts like ”  We’ll dig deeper into the history of “Sell in May,” analyze summer trends in recent years, and focus on signs to follow in the weeks and months ahead!  Sign up HERE for this free event!

It turns out that the reason why “sell in May” has often worked out is less about May being super weak, but more about how major lows have usually come in the fall months.  Since the COVID low in early 2020, we’ve experienced major lows in September or October every year except for 2024.

Spring and Early Summer Have Been Crazy Strong

When we focus on the last five years, we can see that the May-June-July period has been consistently strong.  In fact, May and July have seen bullish trends every year since 2019.  So while investors often talk about the “summer doldrums” and weakness into the hot summer months, the recent evidence would suggest otherwise.

The weakest months since the COVID low have actually been January, February, September, and October.  So again, it’s been less about weakness in the spring, and much more about weaker price action into the traditional low in September or October.  Also note the strength in November, where the market is almost always rallying off a major low and setting up for a positive finish to the calendar year!

Will 2025 Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

As I mentioned earlier, I like to think of seasonal patterns as tendencies.  There is no guarantee that July will be strong, and there is no way I can tell you for sure that the market will make yet another major low in September.  Seasonality tells you the general bias to the markets, but mindful investors know the most important evidence is price itself.

Given the extreme rally off the early April low, we’ve seen a rapid rotation from bearish sentiment to more bullish outlooks as investors have started to believe in the new uptrend phase.  This week’s price gap higher for the S&P 500 could provide a perfect support range to monitor in the coming weeks and months.

If the S&P 500 is able to hold 5750, and remain above the support range set from the gap earlier this month, then perhaps the equity markets will follow the same pattern as recent years and remain strong into August.

If, however, the S&P 500 is unable to hold this key support range, and we also confirm that breakdown with weaker momentum readings and deteriorating breadth conditions, then the S&P 500 may be charting a new course through what has become a strong period in the calendar year.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Emerging Stocks to Watch – Breakouts, Momentum & Upgrades!

Looking for breakout stocks and top market leaders? Follow along Mary Ellen shares stock breakouts, analyst upgrades, and sector leadership trends to help you trade strong stocks in today’s market.

In this week’s episode, Mary Ellen reveals the stocks leading the market higher and explains what’s fueling their strength. She highlights base breakouts, analyst upgrades, and leadership stocks gaining momentum. In addition, she screens for emerging breakout candidates you should have on your radar.

This video originally premiered May 16, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Coinbase Backs QCAD Stablecoin to Power Canadian Crypto Adoption

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN), one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges, has announced an investment in Stablecorp to bring QCAD — a Canadian dollar-denominated stablecoin — to Canadians.

The announcement was made in Toronto at the Blockchain Futurist Conference, where it was presented during a fireside chat by Lucas Matheson, Canada country director at Coinbase, and Alex McDougall, CEO of Stablecorp.

The pair positioned the launch as part of a global shift toward stablecoin integration and digital financial innovation, underscoring Canada’s unique opportunity to carve out a leadership role in the emerging digital currency ecosystem.

‘Stablecoins are probably the topic to draw this year in crypto, for a lot of good reasons,” said Matheson.

“When you look at volume around the world for cryptocurrencies, stablecoins currently account for about 70 percent of all volume in cryptocurrency, while maintaining about 10 percent of the market cap.”

Matheson pointed out that governments around the world, from the US to the UK, are moving quickly to legislate and define these assets as legitimate payment instruments. He stressed that Canada needs to be part of that conversation.

Stablecorp’s QCAD is not new to the scene. McDougall noted that the company has been working since 2020 to create a homegrown stablecoin that reflects Canada’s economic standing. Despite the US dollar’s dominance in the global stablecoin market, McDougall believes the Canadian dollar has a compelling case to make.

“The Canadian dollar trades over C$400 billion a day in foreign exchange. Over C$3.6 billion of goods cross the American border, back and forth every day,’ he told audience members. “There’s over C$316 billion in international central bank reserve currencies, and that’s up to C$65 billion over 2024 — the Canadian dollar quietly kicks ass.’

The Coinbase-Stablecorp partnership aims to fill this void by integrating QCAD into use cases ranging from simple peer-to-peer transactions to institutional finance and global trade. Matheson explained that Coinbase’s backing will bring the reach, trust and compliance capabilities needed to scale QCAD nationally and internationally.

Their discourse also revolved around real-world applications. McDougall described QCAD as a solution that dramatically lowers costs and increases speed in cross-border and domestic payments.

He pointed to practical examples already being piloted, such as Brazilian students paying Canadian tuition fees using QCAD, and Filipino workers receiving remittances via seamless FX-to-stablecoin pipelines.

In both cases, traditional banking systems are circumvented in favor of instant, lower-fee digital rails.

The stablecoin, McDougall added, also opens new doors for small business financing. Canadian businesses will soon be able to draw international lines of credit that settle in QCAD in real-time, with FX baked into transactions, a feature traditional banks currently do not offer. He also highlighted use cases in global telecommunications billing, where cross-border carrier settlements, a US$5 billion annual burden, could be simplified via programmatic stablecoin payments.

Even more futuristically, he envisions QCAD being critical infrastructure for Canada’s artificial intelligence ambitions.

“From just simple everyday things like sending money around and taking that power back, all the way to having these fully automated global webs of commerce — stablecoins are the building blocks for every single one of those,” he said.

Despite the momentum, both Matheson and McDougall acknowledged that Canada’s regulatory environment has not kept pace with innovation. Unlike jurisdictions such as the US and UK, where stablecoins are being defined through legislation as distinct asset classes, often as e-money, Canada remains entangled in a fragmented regulatory landscape.

“Our challenge is that we have 13 different provincial securities regulators, each approaching crypto through the lens of securities law,” said Matheson. “That’s led to a square peg, round hole problem.”

The lack of a unified federal framework has made it difficult for firms like Stablecorp to fully operationalize a compliant and scalable stablecoin solution. However, the panelists hope this may be changing with a cabinet shakeup.

With the QCAD rollout and further announcements expected in the coming weeks, the pressure now shifts to Ottawa to match private sector ambition with public policy action.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Crypto Market Recap: Coinbase Hit by US$400 Million Hack, GENIUS Act Under Scrutiny

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Friday (May 16) as of 4:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$104,223 as markets closed, up 1 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range for the cryptocurrency has seen a low of US$102,935 and a high of US$104,291.

Bitcoin performance, May 16, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Ethereum (ETH) finished the trading day at US$2,592.45, a 1.2 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$2,527.33 and saw a daily high of US$2,631.38.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) closed at US$171.79, down 0.3 percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$168 and a high of US$173.98.
  • XRP is trading at US$2.42, reflecting a slight 1.5 percent decrease over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached a daily low of US$2.37 and a high of US$2.50.
  • Sui (SUI) is priced at US$3.87, showing an increaseof 2.0 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$3.79 and a high of US$3.94.
  • Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.7788, up 0.9 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price of the day was US$0.755, and it reached a high of US$0.7905.

Today’s crypto news to know

Coinbase faces US$400 million fallout after major cyber attack

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) disclosed that a sophisticated cyber attack has compromised a portion of its customer base and could cost the firm up to US$400 million.

Hackers reportedly gained access to internal systems by paying off employees and contractors, allowing them to impersonate Coinbase and scam users out of their crypto.

Less than 1 percent of customer data was breached, but the attackers demanded a US$20 million ransom—which Coinbase flatly refused to pay. Instead, the company has pledged to fully reimburse affected users and established a US$20 million reward for information leading to the perpetrators’ arrest.

the timing of the attack is significant, coming just days before Coinbase is set to join the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX), a milestone for mainstream crypto acceptance.

Ripple’s US$50 million SEC settlement rejected by federal judge

A US federal judge has rejected a US$50 million settlement deal jointly proposed by Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), calling the motion ‘procedurally improper’ and outside her jurisdiction.

The dispute stems from the SEC’s longstanding lawsuit accusing Ripple of conducting unregistered securities sales through XRP, a case now under appeal. Judge Analisa Torres said that because the litigation is at the appellate stage, the district court has no authority to modify the previous judgment.

Ripple’s chief legal officer responded by emphasizing that the ruling doesn’t affect the company’s earlier court wins and that both sides remain aligned on resolving the issue.

Bitget becomes world’s third top crypto exchange by trading volume

Bitget has officially surged into third place among global crypto exchanges, reporting a stunning US$757.6 billion in futures trading volume and US$68.6 billion in spot volume for April 2025.

The Seychelles-based platform has made a name for itself through features like copy trading, which allows users to mimic high-performing traders in real time. Bitget’s April performance stood out despite a broader market correction, expanding its market share to 7.2 percent and pushing its user base above 120 million.

The exchange’s rise signals increasing demand for advanced crypto trading products beyond the traditional buy-and-hold strategy.

Fifth Third Bank eyes expansion into crypto after regulatory green light

After five years of quietly exploring the crypto space, Fifth Third Bank now says it’s ready to expand its offerings amid friendlier US regulations. The Cincinnati-based lender, which holds over US$200 billion in assets, has been working with crypto firms since 2020 but delayed larger moves until clearer guidance from regulators arrived.

According to Chief Strategy Officer Ben Hoffman, the bank is now exploring stablecoin-powered cross-border payments, crypto payroll services and digital asset custody. Recent signals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance have given institutions more confidence to act.

Fifth Third has formed internal teams across its business lines to integrate blockchain-based financial products responsibly. With mainstream banks finally stepping into crypto with more certainty, a new chapter of institutional adoption appears to be underway.

US lawmakers debate GENIUS Act as stablecoin regulation nears critical juncture

The GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for US dollar-backed stablecoins, is under intense scrutiny as lawmakers grapple with its potential implications.

While the legislation seeks to provide clarity and oversight in the burgeoning stablecoin market, recent developments have introduced partisan divisions and raised concerns over consumer protections and financial stability.

Initially enjoying bipartisan support, the GENIUS Act has encountered resistance from Senate Democrats following revelations about former President Donald Trump’s involvement in digital asset ventures.

Lawmakers are now advocating for amendments to enhance consumer protections, enforce stricter financial controls and address potential ethical issues, particularly regarding the participation of large tech companies like Meta in the stablecoin space.

Despite these challenges, Republican proponents of the bill are pushing for its approval by Memorial Day (May 26), emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity to foster innovation and maintain the US dollar’s dominance in the digital economy.

Mastercard teams up with MoonPay to enable stablecoin payments worldwide

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) has announced a major new partnership with crypto payment processor MoonPay to bring stablecoin-based payments to more than 150 million global merchants.

The collaboration leverages Iron, a blockchain infrastructure company recently acquired by MoonPay, to enable real-time spending of stablecoins at any location accepting Mastercard.

The partnership is geared toward gig workers, digital creators and international businesses looking to send or receive money in a faster, cheaper and more flexible way. MoonPay says it already works with over 500 crypto platforms and can now expand its reach to over 100 million active users

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Nvidia says it is not sending GPU designs to China after reports of new Shanghai operation

Nvidia said it won’t be sending graphics processing unit plans to China following a report that the artificial intelligence chipmaker is working on a research and development center in Shanghai in light of recent U.S. export curbs.

“We are not sending any GPU designs to China to be modified to comply with export controls,” a spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.

The Financial Times was the first to report the news, citing two sources familiar with the matter. CEO Jensen Huang discussed the potential new center with Shanghai’s mayor, Gong Zheng, during a visit last month, the FT reported.

The center will assess ways to meet U.S. restrictions while catering to the local market, although production and design will continue outside China, according to the report.

AI chipmakers such as Nvidia have been hit with major China roadblocks since 2022 as the U.S. began cracking down on sending advanced chips to China because of concerns of possible military use.

Last week, the Trump administration said it would replace restrictions put in place under President Joe Biden with a “much simpler rule that unleashes American innovation and ensures American AI dominance.” Nvidia said last month that it would take a $5.5 billion charge tied to selling its H20 GPUs in China and other countries.

Huang has previously commented on the significance of China, which is one of the company’s major market after the U.S., Singapore and Taiwan. He told CNBC this month that getting shut out of the world second-largest economy would be a “tremendous loss,” estimating that China’s AI market could hit $50 billion over the next two to three years.

“We just have to stay agile,” Huang told CNBC’s Jon Fortt, in an interview alongside ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott. “Whatever the policies are of the government, whatever is in the best interest of our country, we’ll support,” he added.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Cava revenue beats estimates as Mediterranean chain reports double-digit same-store sales growth

Cava on Thursday reported better-than-expected sales in its latest fiscal quarter, shaking off the malaise the broader restaurant industry has felt as consumers have cut back on dining.

The Mediterranean chain said its same-store sales grew 10.8% in the three months that ended April 20, lifted by traffic growth of 7.5%. Analysts surveyed by StreetAccount were projecting same-store sales growth of 10.3%.

“When we look at our consumers in the quarter, we saw an increase in premium attachment on higher priced items, like our pita chips or amazing housemade juices. We also saw that our per person average continued to increase, and then when we look at our results, there’s positive traffic across all of our geographies, across all of our income cohorts, as well as the different formats of our restaurants and dayparts,” Chief Financial Officer Tricia Tolivar told CNBC.

She added that diners have been trading up from fast food and down from casual-dining restaurants into Cava’s bowls and pitas, a trend the company has seen for several quarters.

Elsewhere in the restaurant industry, companies have been reporting very different behavior from consumers, although many companies’ results did not include any time in April, when the industry’s sales and traffic performance improved.

Fast-casual rival Chipotle said its transactions fell 2.3% in the first quarter as consumers pulled back their spending in February, spooked by economic uncertainty. Sweetgreen reported its first quarterly same-store sales decline since it went public in 2021. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said fast-food industry data showed both low- and middle-income consumers spending less. The burger giant said U.S. same-store sales declined 3.6% for the first quarter.

Despite the strong quarterly performance, Cava reiterated its same-store sales forecast, sticking with its projections of a 6% to 8% increase. The chain said last quarter that it is expecting slower growth in the back half of its fiscal 2025.

The stock fell 5% in extended trading. As of Thursday’s close, Cava shares have slid 11% so far this year, hurt by investor concerns over its conservative outlook for the fiscal year and the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s tariffs.

Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

The company reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $25.71 million, or 22 cents per share, up from $13.99 million, or 12 cents per share, a year earlier. Cava reported an income tax benefit of $10.7 million related to stock-based compensation, which boosted its earnings this quarter.

Net sales climbed 28% to $332 million. On a 12-month trailing basis, Cava’s revenue has surpassed $1 billion, representing a major milestone for the company.

The company did raise some of its projections for the fiscal year.

Cava now anticipates adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $152 million to $159 million, up from its prior forecast of $150 million to $157 million. The company also plans to open between 64 and 68 new locations, higher than its previous outlook of between 62 and 66 restaurant openings.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS