Archive

May 25, 2025

Browsing

After a very strong move in the week before this one, the markets chose to take a breather. They moved in a wide range but ended the week on a mildly negative note after rebounding from their low point of the week. While defending the key levels, the markets largely chose to stay within a defined range. The trading range remained reasonably wide; the Nifty oscillated in a 600.55-point range over the past five sessions. The volatility inched modestly higher; the India Vix rose 4.40% to 17.28 on a weekly basis. While keeping its head above crucial levels, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 166.65 points (-0.67).

The coming week will be an expiry week; we will have monthly derivatives expiry playing out as well. Going by the options data, the Nifty has created a trading range between 25100 and 24500 levels. The markets are likely to consolidate in this 600-point trading range. A directional bias would emerge only if the Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside convincingly or ends up violating the 24500 level. While the underlying trend stays intact, the markets are unlikely to develop any sustainable trend so long as they do not move past the 25100 level. While the markets stay in the defined range, it would be prudent to vigilantly guard profits at higher levels and rotate sectors effectively to remain invested in the relatively stronger pockets.

The coming week is likely to see the levels of 25000 and 25175 acting as potential resistance points. The supports come in lower at 24600 and 24450 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 60.14; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has formed a trading range between 25100 on the higher side and 24500 on the lower side. This means that a directional bias would emerge only if Nifty moves past 25100 convincingly or violates the 24500 level. Until either of these two things happens, we will see the Nifty consolidating in this defined range. The Nifty has so far defended the pattern support level that also exists in the 24400-24500 zone.

Overall, the markets continue to remain in a challenging environment and face strong resistance near the 25100 level. So long as the Nifty stays below this level, it stays prone to corrective spikes, which may also keep volatility at slightly elevated levels as well. Given the current technical structure, it would be imperative that not only the sectors be rotated properly to stay invested in relatively stronger pockets, but all existing gains must also be vigilantly guarded at current levels by the investors. While continuing to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels, a cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that while the Nifty Consumption, PSU Bank, Infrastructure, Banknifty, FMCG, and Commodities indices are in the leading quadrant, all are showing a distinct slowdown in their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index. While these groups are likely to show resilience and may relatively outperform, except for the Consumption Index, they are giving up in favor of other sectors that are showing renewed relative strength.

The Nifty Financial Services Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Services Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.

While the Nifty Pharma Index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the IT Index, which is also inside the lagging quadrant, is showing sharp improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty, Auto, Midcap 100, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant. These groups are expected to continue bettering their relative performance against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

President Donald Trump on Friday cleared the merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, after the Japanese steelmaker’s previous bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares surged more than 20% to close at $52.01 per share after Trump’s announcement.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro applauded the agreement, saying he worked with local, state and federal leaders ‘to press for the best deal to keep U.S. Steel headquartered in Pittsburgh, protect union jobs, and secure the future of steelmaking in Western Pennsylvania.’

In his own statement, Lieutenant Gov. Austin Davis called the announcement ‘promising,’ but added: ‘I want to make sure everyone involved in the deal holds up their end of the bargain. I look forward to seeing the promised investments become a reality and the workers receive everything they’ve fought for.’

President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion in January, citing national security concerns. Biden said at the time that the acquisition would create a risk to supply chains that are critical for the U.S.

Trump, however, ordered a new review of the proposed acquisition in April, directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to determine “whether further action in this matter may be appropriate.”

Trump said he would hold a rally at U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh on May 30.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The once-solid relationship between President Donald Trump and Apple CEO Tim Cook is breaking down over the idea of a U.S.-made iPhone.

Last week, Trump said he “had a little problem with Tim Cook,” and on Friday, he threatened to slap a 25% tariff on iPhones in a social media post.

Trump is upset with Apple’s plan to source the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. from its factory partners in India, instead of China. Cook confirmed this plan earlier this month during earnings discussions.

Trump wants Apple to build iPhones for the U.S. market in the U.S. and has continued to pressure the company and Cook.

“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday.

Analysts said it would probably make more sense for Apple to eat the cost rather than move production stateside.

“In terms of profitability, it’s way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to US,” Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote on X.

UBS analyst David Vogt said that the potential 25% tariffs were a “jarring headline” but that they would only be a “modest headwind” to Apple’s earnings, dropping annual earnings by 51 cents per share, versus a prior expectation of 34 cents per share under the current tariff landscape.

Experts have long held that a U.S.-made iPhone is impossible at worst and highly expensive at best.

Analysts have said that iPhones made in the U.S. would be much more expensive, CNBC previously reported, with some estimates ranging between $1,500 and $3,500 to buy one at retail. Labor costs would certainly rise.

But it would also be logistically complicated.

Supply chains and factories take years to build out, including installing equipment and staffing up. Parts that Apple imported to the United States for assembly might be subject to tariffs as well.

Apple started manufacturing iPhones in India in 2017 but it was only in recent years that the region was capable of building Apple’s latest devices.

“We believe the concept of Apple producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale that is not feasible,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a note on Friday.

Other analysts were wary about predicting how Trump’s threat ultimately plays out. Apple might be able to strike a deal with the administration — despite the eroding relationship — or challenge the tariffs in court.

For now, most of Apple’s most important products are exempt from tariffs after Trump gave phones and computers a tariff waiver — even from China — in April, but Apple doesn’t know how the Trump administration’s tariffs will ultimately play out beyond June.

“We’re skeptical” that the 25% tariff will materialize, wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers.

He wrote that Apple could try to preserve its roughly 41% gross margin on iPhones by raising prices in the U.S. by between $100 and $300 per phone.

It’s unclear how Trump intends to target Apple’s India-made iPhones. Rakers wrote that the administration could put specific tariffs on phone imports from India.

Apple’s operations in India continue to expand.

Foxconn, which assembles iPhones for Apple, is building a new $1.5 billion factory in India that could do some iPhone production, the Financial Times reported Thursday.

Apple declined to comment on Trump’s post.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS