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June 8, 2025

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Week Ahead: NIFTY’s Behavior Against This Level Crucial As The Index Looks At Potential Resumption Of An Upmove

After consolidating for two weeks, the Nifty finally appeared to be flexing its muscles for a potential move higher. Over the past five sessions, the Nifty traded with an underlying positive bias and ended near the week’s high point while also attempting to move past a crucial pattern resistance. The past week saw the Index oscillating in the 527-point range, which was in line with the previous weeks. The volatility also cooled off; the India VIX came off by 9% to 14.63 on a weekly basis. While staying largely in a range trading with a positive bias, the headline Index closed with a net weekly gain of 252.35 points (+1.02%).

Over the past couple of weeks, the Nifty has traded in a well-defined range created between 24500-25100 levels. This would mean that the markets would remain devoid of directional bias unless they take out 25100 on the higher side or violate the 24500 level. Despite visibly strong undercurrents, staying reactive to the markets rather than getting predictive would be prudent. Although there are heightened possibilities of the Nifty taking out the 25100 level, we must consider it as resistance until it is taken out convincingly.

The coming week is set to see a stable start; the levels of 25150 and 25400 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 24800 and 24500. The trading range is expected to get wider than usual.

The weekly RSI is 60.94; it continues to remain neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A strong white candle emerged; this shows the bullish trend that the markets had during the week.

A pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty resisted the upward rising trendline that began from the low of 21350 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. The Nifty has attempted to penetrate it after resisting it for a couple of weeks.

Overall, the coming week may see the markets trading with an underlying bullish bias. However, for this to culminate in a good trending move, the Index will have to take out the 25100-25150 zone convincingly on the upside. Until this happens, the markets may continue to consolidate in a broad trading range. Unless there is a strong move that surpasses the 25100-25150 zone, one must consider this level as an immediate resistance point. Some pockets have run up too hard over the past few days; one must also focus on protecting gains at current levels rather than chasing the up moves. Fresh purchases must be kept limited in stocks with strong technical setups and the presence of relative strength. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index continues to build on its relative momentum while staying inside the leading quadrant. It may continue outperforming the markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Consumption, and PSE Index are also inside the leading quadrant but are seen giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Bank Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Services Sector, Financial Services, and Commodity Indice are also inside the weakening quadrant. Individual performance of components from these groups may be seen, but overall relative performance may slow down over the coming weeks.

The Nifty FMCG Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Pharma Indice are languishing in this quadrant. The Nifty IT index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is seen in a strong bottoming-out process while improving its relative momentum.

The Nifty Energy, Media, Realty, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant and may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Tech ETFs are Leading Since April, but Another Group is Leading YTD

QQQ and tech ETFs are leading the surge off the April low, but there is another group leading year-to-date. Year-to-date performance is important because it includes two big events: the stock market decline from mid February to early April and the steep surge into early June. We need to combine these two events for a complete performance picture.

TrendInvestorPro uses a Core ETF ChartList to track performance and rank momentum. This list includes 59 equity ETFs, 4 bond ETFs, 9 commodity ETFs and 2 crypto ETFs. The image below shows the top 10 performers year-to-date (%Chg). Seven of the top ten are metals-related ETFs. Gold Miners (GDX), Silver Miners (SIL), Platinum (PLTM) and Gold (GLD) are leading the way. The Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) are the only three non-commodity leaders. The message here is clear: metals are leading.

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TrendInvestorPro has been tracking the Platinum ETF (PLTM) and Palladium ETF (PALL) since their big breakout surges on May 20th. The chart below shows PALL with a higher low from August to April and a breakout on May 20th. The ETF fell back below the 200-day SMA (gray line) in late May, but resumed its breakout with a 7.75% surge this week.

The bottom window shows the PPO(5,200,0) moving above +1% on May 21st to signal an uptrend in late May. This signal filter means the 5-day EMA is more than 1% above the 200-day EMA. The uptrend signal remains valid until a cross below -1% (pink line). As with all trend-following signals, there are bad signals (whipsaws) and good signals (extended trends). Given overall strength in metals, this could be a good signal that foreshadows an extended uptrend.

TrendInvestorPro is following this signal, as well as breakouts in other commodity-related ETFs. Our comprehensive reports and videos focus on the leaders. This week we covered flags and pennants in several tech ETFs (XLK, IGV, SMH, ARKF, AIQ, MAGS). Click there to take a trial and get your four bonuses. 

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Procter & Gamble to cut 7,000 jobs as part of broader restructuring

Procter & Gamble will cut 7,000 jobs, or roughly 15% of its non-manufacturing workforce, as part of a two-year restructuring program.

The layoffs by the consumer goods giant come as President Donald Trump’s tariffs have led a range of companies to hike prices to offset higher costs. The trade tensions have raised concerns about the broader health of the U.S. economy and job market.

P&G CFO Andre Schulten announced the job cuts during a presentation at the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference on Thursday morning. The company employs 108,000 people worldwide, as of June 30, according to regulatory filings.

P&G faces slowing growth in the U.S., the company’s largest market. In its fiscal third quarter, North American organic sales rose just 1%.

Trump’s tariffs have presented another challenge for P&G, which has said that it plans to raise prices in the next fiscal year, which starts in July. The company expects a 3 cent to 4 cent per share drag on its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings from levies, based on current rates, Schulten said. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, P&G is projecting a headwind from tariffs of $600 million before taxes.

P&G, which owns Pampers, Tide and Swiffer, is planning a broader effort to reevaluate its portfolio, restructure its supply chain and slim down its corporate organization. Schulten said investors can expect more details, like specific brand and market exits, on the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call in July.

P&G is projecting that it will incur non-core costs of $1 billion to $1.6 billion before taxes due to the reorganization.

“This restructuring program is an important step toward ensuring our ability to deliver our long-term algorithm over the coming two to three years,” Schulten said. “It does not, however, remove the near-term challenges that we currently face.”

P&G follows other major U.S. employers, including Microsoft and Starbucks, in carrying out significant layoffs this year. As Trump’s tariffs take hold, investors are watching Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for May for signs of whether the job market has started to slow. While the government reading for April was better than expected, a separate reading this week from ADP showed private sector hiring was weak in May.

Shares of P&G fell more than 1% in morning trading on the news. The stock has fallen 2% so far this year, outstripped by the S&P 500′s gains of more than 1%. P&G has a market cap of $407 billion.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Trump implies government could cut contracts and subsidies to Musk’s companies

President Donald Trump has escalated his sudden rupture with Elon Musk by implying the government could sever ties with the tech titan’s businesses.

‘The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts. I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it,’ Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social.

Various estimates have been put forward about just how much Musk’s firms, primarily SpaceX and Tesla, benefit from U.S. government contracts and subsidies. The Washington Post has put the figure at $38 billion, with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell estimating that company alone benefits from $22 billion in federal spending. Reuters has reported that the true figure is classified because of the nature of many of the contracts Musk’s firms are under.

NASA relies on SpaceX to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station. The agency’s only other option at the moment is to pay around $90 million for a seat aboard Russia’s Soyuz capsule.

Last year, SpaceX was selected to develop a vehicle capable of safely de-orbiting the International Space Station in 2030, when NASA and its partner space agencies agreed to end operation of the orbiting laboratory. SpaceX is also expected to play a major role in NASA’s efforts to return astronauts to the moon and eventually travel beyond to Mars.

Later Thursday afternoon, Musk posted that he would begin ‘decommissioning’ SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, which regularly flies astronauts and cargo to the ISS, in response to Trump’s threat.

NASA spokesperson Bethany Stevens said the agency ‘will continue to execute upon the President’s vision for the future of space.’

‘We will continue to work with our industry partners to ensure the President’s objectives in space are met,’ she said in a statement on X.

Tesla, meanwhile, has benefited from approximately $11.4 billion in total regulatory credits aimed at boosting electric-vehicle purchases, though that figure also includes state-level subsidies. Musk has claimed he no longer needs the credit, which he says now primarily benefits rivals.

Following Trump’s threat, shares in Tesla, which had already fallen 8% on Thursday as the tit-for-tat escalated on social media, declined as much as 15% following Trump’s post. SpaceX is privately held and its shares do not trade on the open market.

Trump’s warning came as part of a stunning exchange with Musk — who spent more than $250 million to help him get elected — that erupted into public view.

Earlier in the day, president told reporters in the Oval Office that he was disappointed in Musk’s criticism of the Republican policy bill that is making its way through Congress. Musk has blasted the bill, calling it a ‘disgusting abomination,’ amid concerns it would worsen the U.S. fiscal deficit.

Musk, who officially left his White House role last week to spend more time on his companies, spent much of Thursday launching into a tirade on X, his social media platform, where he posted a variety of critiques of Trump, the bill and other Republican politicians.

A make-good on Trump’s threat would come at a sensitive time for Tesla, which has seen global sales plunge partly in response to Musk’s very involvement with the Trump campaign. Year to date, its shares are down some 25%.

Trump’s warning also raises the specter that Trump could resurface pending government investigations into Musk’s firms. According to a report in April from Democratic staff of the Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Musk’s firms were facing $2.37 billion in potential federal liabilities when Trump took office in January.

Since then, many of those actions have been paused or outright dismissed alongside the rise of the previously Musk-helmed Department of Government Efficiency, which gutted many of the agencies looking into Musk’s businesses.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS