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June 20, 2025

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The Fed Is Getting It Wrong AGAIN As They Hold Rates Steady

The Fed should absolutely stop talking about being “data dependent”. That’s so far from the truth. If they were data dependent, we’d have either seen a rate cut today or Fed Chief Powell would have been discussing one for the next meeting. Inflation reports since the last Fed meeting have been benign. Economic reports, on the other hand, have shown weakness and are pointing to the need for lower interest rates.

Powell was having none of it. During Wednesday’s press conference, one reporter asked the Fed Chief why the Fed was able to lower rates in December, despite knowing that tariffs and their potential impacts were on the way. I thought it was a great question, because Powell was using future tariff impacts on inflation as the primary reason for holding rates steady today. It was a perfect illustration of The Waffler at his best. When another reporter asked Powell about his frequent comments that the Fed is data dependent and that all current data points to the need for an interest rate cut, The Waffler noted the Fed needs to “look ahead”. So which is it? Is interest rate policy being guided by current data or by looking ahead?

This is a repeat of 2021 and 2022. Remember all the inflation news and how The Waffler said inflation was transitory. I guess he was looking ahead when he made those comments. He and his band of wafflers looked ahead and got it wrong. Then, inflation data poured in higher than expected for months and he finally started his data dependency talk.

The Fed has been late to every single party for 7 years now and running. They’re running late again. Eventually, Mr. Waffler will get it right and our major indices will all move to all-time highs. For now, though, the reason for any period of consolidation or, worse yet, selling can be laid at the doorstep of none other than The Waffler.

Personally, I’m exhausted by the constant “listen to what I say until I change it” approach to interest rate policy. Yes, we’ve had a 100-year pandemic and a resulting inflation problem that’s been worse than any since the 1970s. We’ve had two trade wars. I get it. But I firmly believe that the extreme volatility and the four (FOUR!!!!!!!) cyclical bear markets that we’ve endured since The Waffler became the Fed Chief is, in large part, his fault. He was sworn in on February 5th, 2018 and the stock market has been a roller coaster ever since:

Name the last time that the U.S. has seen 4 different cyclical bear markets, all starting from all-time highs, within a 7-year period. Start the Jeopardy music.

His mismanagement of interest rates didn’t start with the pandemic. I wrote an article in December 2018, during his first year, saying that his call for two rate hikes in 2019 would never happen. The next interest rate move? A cut several months later in 2019. Here’s the article I wrote back then as we bottomed in December 2018:

“How The Grinch Stole Christmas” Featuring Jerome Powell

No one has been wrong more than The Waffler.

Now maybe you’re sitting back and saying, “Tom, what’s the big deal? The tariffs are a threat. Why not just wait it out and be sure there are no lingering inflationary pressures?” Well, if you don’t mind the potential of a 5th cyclical bear market before we finally boot this guy to the curb, then I say GO FOR IT. Why try to hasten an economic meltdown when it’s unnecessary? Who believes anything The Waffler says? He said we were going to get two rate hikes in 2019. We got an interest rate cut instead. He said inflation was transitory in 2021. Then the Fed had to start raising rates at an absurd rate, because inflation skyrocketed and he waited way too long to turn hawkish. The stock market bottomed in June 2022 and was returning back towards all-time highs just prior to his infamous “more pain ahead” speech from Jackson Hole, WY on August 26th, 2022. Subsequent to that speech, the stock market fell precipitously for two months before once again finding a new bottom. That entire selling episode was caused solely by his irresponsible remarks.

And now where are we? Holding rates steady while the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates for 8 straight meetings. The Waffler will eventually get it right. Unfortunately, a lot of innocent investors and traders will continue to pay the price – until someone finally shows him the exit.

His term expiration cannot get here soon enough for me. GOOD RIDDANCE MR. WAFFLER!

Market Manipulation

I’ve written often about what I call the “legalized thievery” of market makers. The extreme volatility over the past several years has triggered market manipulation like we’ve never seen before. The good news is that once you understand how it works, trading the stock market gets a whole lot easier. At EarningsBeats.com we’ve timed exits out of the stock market almost perfectly, prior to the onset of cyclical bear markets. Missing out on 20%+ declines and then jumping back in at or near major bottoms increases stock market returns dramatically.

It’s time that everyone understands how the stock market works. On Saturday, June 28th, at 10:00am ET, we will be hosting a FREE webinar, “Trading the Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. This event promises to be a real eye-opener, unless you’re already an EarningsBeats.com member (in which case you’ve already become a seasoned veteran regarding manipulation). Do you want to see big stock market declines before they happen? I will teach you how.

Seating is limited and this event will be packed, I can guarantee you that. PLEASE be sure to register NOW and save your spot. Again, there is NO COST. Registration is easy. Simply CLICK HERE to register and for more information.

(By the way, if you’re not available to attend LIVE on Saturday, June 28th, you should still register. All those who register will receive a copy of the recording after the event and it will be time stamped.)

Happy trading!

Tom

Critical Metals Secures US$120 Million Loan LOI for Tanbreez Rare Earths Project

Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) got a boost on Monday (June 16), landing a letter of interest (LOI) for a non-dilutive US$120 million funding package from the Export-Import Bank of the US (EXIM).

The funds would be used to advance its Tanbreez rare earths project in Southern Greenland.

Touted as one of the world’s largest rare earths deposits, Tanbreez is expected to produce up to 85,000 metric tons of rare earth material annually, with more than 27 percent classified as heavy rare earth elements.

“This is a tremendous milestone for Critical Metals Corp which highlights to the rare earths supply chain, Western Governments and investors that Tanbreez is a world-class asset that will provide mission-critical rare earth metals to counter China’s continued dominance,” said Critical Metals CEO and Chairman Tony Sage.

The funding would support pre-production, technical studies and early mining activities. EXIM’s financing falls under its new Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative and comes with a 15 year repayment term.

Critical Metals acquired a controlling stake in Tanbreez in June 2024 in a transaction valued at up to US$211 million. It expects the asset to require US$290 million in capital expenditure to advance to initial commercial production.

The US$120 million from EXIM would support key early stage work at Tanbreez, including technical and economic studies, pre-production activities and the start of mining operations.

The company is aiming to complete a definitive feasibility study by late 2025.

Critical Metals also plans to invest an additional US$10 million in exploration this year, giving it the option to increase its ownership in the project to 92.5 percent through the acquisition of a further 50.5 percent stake.

“We are now razor focused to put Tanbreez into production as soon as possible,’ said Sage.

Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Mali Court Seizes Control of Barrick Gold Mine Amid Escalating Dispute

A court in Bamako has ordered the temporary transfer of operational control of Barrick Mining’s (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) Loulo-Gounkoto gold-mining complex to a state-appointed administrator for six months.

The ruling, handed down on Tuesday (June 17) by the Tribunal de Commerce, empowers former health minister and certified accountant Soumana Makadji to run one of Barrick’s most lucrative global assets.

The company has described the move as “unjustified” and “unprecedented.”

According to Judge Issa Aguibou Diallo, the ruling was made under Article 160-1 of the OHADA corporate law framework, which allows a court to appoint a provisional administrator when the regular functioning of a company becomes impossible. The administrator, Makadji, is tasked with reopening the mine site, participating in negotiations with Barrick and reporting to the court on a quarterly basis — though not to the government.

Makadji is seen in Bamako as a technocrat with strong ethical credentials. His appointment is intended to stabilize operations at Loulo-Gounkoto, which Barrick suspended in January 2024 after the Malian government physically removed unsold gold from the mine and froze the company’s ability to export.

Despite the administrative change, Barrick maintains that its subsidiaries remain the legal owners of the mine.

In a statement released on Monday (June 16), the company emphasized that its “ongoing efforts to reach a constructive and sustainable resolution” have been met with escalatory actions by the state.

“While the company has made a number of good-faith concessions in the spirit of partnership, it cannot accept terms that would compromise the legal integrity or long-term viability of the operations,” Barrick said.

Arbitration and legal fallout

Barrick has already launched international arbitration proceedings at the World Bank’s International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes, as per a May 29 Reuters article.

The company has asked the tribunal to declare that its Malian subsidiaries are protected under longstanding mining conventions, which it argues are not subject to retroactive legislative changes. Mali, however, contends that the convention covering Loulo expired in April 2023, subjecting it to the updated mining code.

The arbitration tribunal has now been formally constituted, and Barrick has filed a request for provisional measures to prevent Mali from further intervening until the dispute is resolved.

A disputed settlement

In February 2024, a tentative settlement appeared close. According to Jeune Afrique, Barrick had agreed in principle to pay 225 billion West African CFA francs (roughly US$396 million) in instalments, recognize the new 2023 mining code and convert Mali’s 20 percent equity stake in Loulo-Gounkoto into “priority shares.”

The government would in turn release the seized gold and free the detained executives.

But the deal collapsed. A Malian negotiator later claimed Barrick had signed the “wrong” agreement and warned the government had “the right to take control of the mines” if the company failed to resume operations.

The ruling junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, has made resource nationalism a hallmark of its post-coup economic strategy. Since coming to power in 2020, the military-led regime has shown a willingness to pressure foreign firms to comply with state priorities, especially in strategic sectors like mining.

The Loulo-Gounkoto dispute is now emblematic of the wider uncertainty surrounding foreign investment in Mali, a country where gold accounts for over 70 percent of export earnings.

Future implications

Loulo-Gounkoto is a cornerstone of Barrick’s global portfolio.

In 2023, the complex produced 723,000 ounces of gold, second only to Barrick’s Carlin mine in Nevada. It boasts remaining reserves of 7.3 million ounces, making it one of the largest high-grade gold systems in the world.

The financial implications of the shutdown are significant. Analysts warned in December that continued disruptions at the site could cut 11 percent from Barrick’s projected 2025 EBITDA.

Morningstar had earlier projected that Loulo-Gounkoto would contribute 250,000 ounces to Barrick’s output this year — an estimate now scrapped from the company’s 2025 guidance.

Further complicating matters, the permit for the Loulo section of the complex is set to expire in February 2025, just weeks after the six month provisional administration period ends. Barrick said it applied for a renewal four months ago, but has received no response from the government. The Gounkoto permit remains valid for another 17 years.

Barrick has said it remains committed to reaching a “mutually acceptable solution” and has appealed the court’s decision. But with no public comment from the Malian government and the provisional administrator now in place, a quick resolution appears unlikely.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Nike pushes back Skims launch with Kim Kardashian due to production delays

Kim Kardashian fans are going to have to wait a little longer for the highly anticipated NikeSKIMS line.

The activewear line will launch later this year instead of in the spring, like the companies had originally announced, because of production delays, according to a person familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to speak candidly. The person added that the delays are internal and not because of a supplier or shipping issue.

No date has been determined for the new launch date, the person added.

The person also said the relationship with Kardashian and the brand is still strong and that everyone is on the same page, but they want to make sure they take their time and get the products right.

Nike first announced the Skims partnership in February and said it would include apparel, footwear and accessories. Since then, Heidi O’Neill, one of the key leaders behind the partnership, has left the company.

New Nike CEO Elliott Hill has been betting big on the Skims brand as he looks to re-invigorate the company after recent declines in sales and its business. For Skims, which was last valued at $4 billion, the partnership with Nike brings a growth opportunity as it expands into athleisure.

Nike’s stock is down more than 20% year-to-date.

“The origin of NikeSKIMS is rooted in a desire to bring something new and unexpected to an industry that is craving something different, and to invite a new generation of women into fitness with disruptive product designed to meet their needs in both performance and style,” the company said about the line when they introduced it.

The news was first reported by Bloomberg.

Nike and SKIMS collaboration featuring Kim Kardashian, Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer, SKIMS.Courtesy: Nike Inc.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS