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June 22, 2025

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The NASDAQ 100, On The Brink Of A Breakout, Needs Help From This Group

U.S. stocks are on the cusp of a very impressive breakout to all-time highs, but are still missing one key ingredient. They need help in the form of a semiconductors ($DJUSSC) breakout of its own. When the DJUSSC reached its all-time high on June 20, 2024, one year ago, a nasty bearish engulfing candle printed on extremely heavy volume, I wrote an article, “The Semiconductors Have Topped; Look Elsewhere for Opportunities”. Simply put, it was buyers’ exhaustion”. I looked for a 20% drop in the index, providing this chart at the time:

There’s now been a lengthy period of sideways consolidation on the semiconductors as you can see from this updated chart as that 20% drop immediately occurred:

Semiconductor leadership has been held firmly in check by the overhead price resistance just below 22000. Until that resistance is cleared, the QQQ has a lid on it.

Let’s keep in mind that the QQQ, an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, can be broken down into its top 2 industry groups, as follows:

  • Semiconductors ($DJUSSC): 21.65%
  • Software ($DJUSSW): 19.11%

More than 40% of the QQQ is comprised of semiconductors and software. Here’s what the longer-term, 5-year software chart looks like:

Software’s relative strength is powerful and we’ve recently seen an absolute price breakout – an awesome combo. On a 5-year weekly chart of semis, it’s quite apparent that when the semiconductors break out, they carry the NASDAQ 100 on their shoulders higher and we’re close to a breakout now:

We just saw a relative strength breakout on the DJUSSC, there’s only one thing missing – that absolute breakout and it’s coming fairly soon, in my opinion.

Market Outlook

A big part of what happens over the next 6-12 months will be highly dependent on the two industry groups above. There are over 100 industry groups and this may be oversimplifying stocks a bit, but make no mistake about it. Higher growth prospects and lower interest rates can result in flying PE ratios and these two groups are home to companies that can expand their businesses very rapidly.

Market Manipulation

I’ve discussed the role of market makers and their manipulation of the stock market many times over the past several years and there’s no doubt in my mind we were just exposed to another massive dose of it in the first half of 2025. At EarningsBeats.com, however, we’ve become experts at spotting it and pointing it out. I discussed the importance of being in cash back in late January and in February before the massive Wall Street ripoff started and I also wrote about the importance of getting back in early. Remember my article in the second week of April, “The Bottom is Here or Rapidly Approaching”? These are real-time articles, folks. You need to see the tops and bottoms before they occur. It does little good to talk about it now. We don’t get a “do over.”

Or do we?

What do I mean by that? Well, we’ll have plenty more chances to spot tops and bottoms in the future, but you need to learn from this year’s mistakes RIGHT NOW. Don’t let these big-money, Wall Street crooks do it to you again. We have one MASSIVE advantage on our side vs. these big Wall Street firms. We can enter and exit stocks in seconds. It takes them days and weeks.

If you want to be better-positioned to see this nonsense AHEAD OF TIME the next time it comes around, I’d suggest that you join me on Saturday, June 28th at 10:00am ET for a 100% free event, “Trading The Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. CLICK HERE to register and learn more about the event! This is a MUST-ATTEND event and seating is limited. Be sure to save your seat and learn how to protect your hard-earned money for the rest of your financial future!

Happy trading!

Tom

Tech 5: OpenAI/Microsoft Talks Get Tense, SoftBank Floats Arizona Robotics Hub

This week, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and OpenAI’s once tight alliance showed signs of strain, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) continued to source artificial intelligence (AI) talent from rival companies.

Meanwhile, SoftBank’s (TSE:9434) CEO is considering a new chip and robotics venture in Arizona, and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is looking to bring AI solutions to American cities.

Read on to dive deeper into this week’s top tech stories.

1. OpenAI and Microsoft partnership faces tension

Microsoft and OpenAI’s once-close partnership is reportedly entering a tense period of renegotiation as OpenAI restructures into a public-benefit company and seeks more autonomy.

According to sources for The Information, recent negotiations have centered on reducing Microsoft’s long-term revenue share in exchange for a 33 percent stake in the newly formed entity. Additionally, OpenAI would like to limit Microsoft’s access to future models such as Windsurf, which OpenAI acquired in May.

The company has competitive concerns with Microsoft’s GitHub Copilot, according to the people.

Tensions have risen enough that some OpenAI executives are even weighing antitrust action against Microsoft, according to sources for the Wall Street Journal. In a joint statement, both companies maintained they want to continue working together; however, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday (June 18) that if they can’t reach an agreement, Microsoft is prepared to walk away and rely on its existing contract with the startup, which extends until 2030.

2. SoftBank floats trillion-dollar robotics hub in Arizona

SoftBank is reportedly interested in a trillion-dollar infrastructure project and has reached out to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) as a potential collaborative partner.

Sources for Bloomberg revealed on Friday (June 20) that SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has approached the Taiwanese chipmaker to play a “prominent role” in a manufacturing park in Arizona codenamed “Project Crystal Land,” which may serve as a major production facility for AI-powered industrial robots.

The sources said SoftBank has also approached Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) and other companies with the idea. SoftBank officials have reportedly engaged in discussions with federal and state government officials, including US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, to explore potential tax incentives for companies onshoring high-tech manufacturing.

In other semiconductor news, Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) said on Wednesday that it will spend more than US$60 billion building seven new semiconductor facilities across the US. Meanwhile, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced over the weekend that it will invest AU$20 billion to expand data center infrastructure in Australia by 2029.

3. Intel reportedly planning sizeable layoffs

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is reportedly set to implement substantial layoffs, impacting 15 to 20 percent of its factory workforce, according to an internal memo distributed on Saturday (June 14) and obtained by the Oregonian.

This move comes amidst continuing efforts to overhaul a company lagging behind its peers.

For some time, Intel’s offerings have struggled to compete effectively against those of key rivals in the highly competitive market of AI products and chip divisions. In a concerted effort to address this gap and reinvigorate its innovation pipeline, Intel has also been actively recruiting top-tier engineering talent.

On Wednesday, Intel expanded its sales and engineering leadership team to include experienced professionals from Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ:CDNS), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google.

These strategic hires are intended to inject fresh perspectives and expertise into crucial engineering departments, directly contributing to the company’s ambitious plans to develop more competitive and advanced AI solutions.

4. Google partners with Conference of Mayors for city AI strategies

On Friday, Google announced that it has partnered with the US Conference of Mayors to help speed the adoption of city-wide AI strategies. With the announcement, the company released a playbook titled A Roadmap for America’s Mayor that provides a framework for city leaders to develop and host an “AI Adoption Workshop,’ which would be structured to help cities identify and explore how AI can support specific needs, drawing on experiences from other communities.

The roadmap suggests cities conduct a general survey to tailor workshop content by gathering information on current AI usage, as well as concerns and ideas for AI applications. Various approaches are suggested for drafting the strategy document, including a dedicated working group, an appointed lead drafter, a hybrid model or engaging external expertise, with a recommended deadline of four to six weeks post-workshop for the first draft.

5. Meta hires top AI talent

Sources for the Information indicated on Wednesday that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is bringing Daniel Gross, CEO of Ilya Sutskever’s startup Safe Superintelligence, and former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman onboard.

According to the report, Gross and Friedman will both join Meta, with Gross leaving his startup to focus on AI products at Meta and Friedman taking on a broader role. Both are expected to work directly with Zuckerberg and Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, who signed a US$14.3 billion deal to join Meta last week.

In exchange, Meta will get a stake in NFDG, the venture capital firm co-owned by Gross and Friedman that has backed companies such as Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN), Figma, CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), Perplexity and Character.ai.

On the most recent episode of his brother’s “Uncapped” podcast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that Meta has also offered signing bonuses as high as US$100 million and large compensation packages to OpenAI employees.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Editor’s Picks: Silver Price Hits 13 Year High, Gold Takes a Breather

Gold was on the decline this week, closing just below US$3,370 per ounce, after tensions in the Middle East pushed it past the US$3,430 level toward the end of last week.

All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve, which in a widely expected move left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (June 18) following its two day meeting. The central bank cut rates in December 2024, but has kept them steady for its last four gatherings.

US President Donald Trump wasn’t pleased, calling Powell ‘too late’ in a Thursday (June 19) post on Truth Social. While speculation that Trump will fire Powell has died down, the president did recently say he intends to announce his next pick for the Fed leader position ‘very soon.’

Of course, Fed meetings are never just about rate decisions — experts often look to Powell’s post-meeting commentary to read between the lines of what’s said (and not said).

Tariffs were definitely in focus this time around, with Powell emphasizing that it’s still soon to tell how much of an impact they will have and how the Fed should react.

‘We have to learn more about tariffs. I don’t know what the right way for us to react will be. I think it’s hard to know with any confidence how we should react until we see the size of the effects’ — Jerome Powell, US Federal Reserve

Chris Temple of the National Investor, who offered another perspective on Powell’s comments.

He noted that while Powell didn’t say the Fed is going to abandon its 2 percent inflation target, it may be leaning in that direction. This is what he said:

The consensus still — although it was extremely close — is barely still for two 25 basis point rate cuts in the balance of 2025. Whether we get them or not, who knows, (but) that’s the current snapshot, which may well change. But that’s against a backdrop of admitting for the second SEP, summary of economic projections … in a row that inflation is going to continue to move back higher — that we’ve seen the best numbers for inflation — at the same time that GDP slows a bit.

So okay, you just told us that your favored inflation number, which is a lot of smoke and mirrors to begin with, is going to go back up to north of 3 percent, which is what they said yesterday. And yet you still — the consensus is you’re going to lower interest rates twice in 2025? So he did everything but come right out and admit that the 2 percent inflation target isn’t going to be reached.

Stay tuned to our YouTube channel for the full interview with Temple.

Bullet briefing — Silver hits 13 year high, SPUT raising US$200 million

Is silver’s price rise real?

Gold has stolen the precious metals spotlight in 2025, but this month silver is shining.

The white metal has been on the rise since the beginning of June, and this week it broke the US$37 per ounce mark for the first time in 13 years.

While silver is known to lag behind gold before playing catch up, it’s also known for its volatility. Its move has created excitement, but market participants are also wary of a correction.

When asked what factors are driving silver, Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor he said he sees a ‘perfect storm’ emerging. Here’s how he explained it:

You’ve got the macroeconomic picture that is I think certainly bullish for silver, like it is for gold and a lot of the other commodities. But I think at the same time you’ve got the market kind of coming to terms with the fact that silver is in a deficit, (and) it’s unlikely to be able to rectify that deficit for several years — in fact, the Silver Institute thinks we’re going to see record deficits at some point over the next five years.

And silver supply is unable to grow. We saw a peak 10 years ago in mined silver, and overall silver supply is essentially flat.

So flat supply, growing demand — demand that’s nearly 20 percent above supply — and our ability to meet those deficits is shrinking because we’re tapping into these aboveground stockpiles that have shrunk by about 800 million ounces in the last four years, which is the equivalent of an entire year’s mine supply. So it’s the perfect storm, it’s really all coming together. And I think that the market’s realizing that.

But does that necessarily mean silver is ready for a big breakout? Krauth has a target of US$40 by the end of 2025, but said silver could potentially go 10 percent above that.

For his part, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group attributes the silver price boost to increased demand from investors, especially when it comes to exchange-traded funds and wholesale products.

He’s projecting a bumpier path forward for the metal:

You also have — the last time I looked it was like 490 million ounces of open interest in the July Comex futures contract. And that’s two weeks from first delivery. So most of the people (who) have those shorts – those are hedges of their physical inventories. They keep those hedges in place, but they roll them forward. So they’ll be buying back their Julys and selling September futures to keep that hedge in place with the next active futures contract. That buying back of the Julys could push silver prices higher.

So if you really want to talk granular prices, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the price of silver fall to US$33, US$34 an ounce, and go up to US$40 an ounce and then back to US$33 an ounce over the next four weeks.

Click the links above to watch the interviews with Krauth and Christian.

SPUT raising US$200 million

The uranium spot price made moves this week after the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX:U.U,OTCQX:SRUUF) announced a US$100 million bought-deal financing on Monday (June 16).

It was bumped up to US$200 million the same day due to strong demand.

Spot uranium has been in a consolidation phase since hitting triple-digit levels in early 2024, creating frustration among those who are waiting for the industry’s strong long-term fundamentals to be better expressed. This week’s move past US$75 per pound has helped reinvigorate investors.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Tesla agrees to first deal to build China’s largest grid-scale battery power plant

Tesla has inked its first deal to build a grid-scale battery power plant in China amid a strained trading relationship between Beijing and Washington.

The U.S. company posted on the Chinese social media service Weibo that the project would be the largest of its kind in China when completed.

Utility-scale battery energy storage systems help electricity grids keep supply and demand in balance. They are increasingly needed to bridge the supply-demand mismatch caused by intermittent energy sources such as solar and wind.

Chinese media outlet Yicai first reported that the deal, worth 4 billion yuan ($556 million), had been signed by Tesla, the local government of Shanghai and financing firm China Kangfu International Leasing, according to the Reuters news agency.

Tesla said its battery factory in Shanghai had produced more than 100 Megapacks — the battery designed for utility-scale deployment — in the first quarter of this year. One Megapack can provide up to 1 megawatt of power for four hours.

“The grid-side energy storage power station is a ‘smart regulator’ for urban electricity, which can flexibly adjust grid resources,” Tesla said on Weibo, according to a Google translation.

This would “effectively solve the pressure of urban power supply and ensure the safe, stable and efficient electricity demand of the city,” it added. “After completion, this project is expected to become the largest grid-side energy storage project in China.”

According to the company’s website, each Megapack retails for just under $1 million in the U.S. Pricing for China was unavailable.

The deal is significant for Tesla, as China’s CATL and carmaker BYD compete with similar products. The two Chinese companies have made significant inroads in battery development and manufacturing, with the former holding about 40% of the global market share.

CATL was also expected to supply battery cells and packs that are used in Tesla’s Megapacks, according to a Reuters news source.

Tesla’s deal with a Chinese local authority is also significant as it comes after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on imports from China, straining the geopolitical relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk was also a close ally of President Trump during the initial stages of the trade war, further complicating the business outlook for U.S. automakers in China.

The demand for grid-scale battery installation, however, is significant in China. In May last year, Beijing set a new target to add nearly 5 gigawatts of battery-powered electricity supply by the end of 2025, bringing the total capacity to 40 gigawatts.

Tesla has also been exporting its Megapacks to Europe and Asia from its Shanghai plant to meet global demand.

Capacity for global battery energy storage systems rose 42 gigawatts in 2023, nearly doubling the total increase in capacity observed in the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency.

— CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal contributed reporting.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS