Archive

July 10, 2025

Browsing

A good trade starts with a well-timed entry and a confident exit. But that’s easier said than done. 

In this video, Joe Rabil of Rabil Stock Research reveals his go-to two-timeframe setup he uses to gain an edge in his entry and exit timings and reduce his investment risks. 

Joe shows you how he spots the big trends on a higher timeframe chart and then drops to a shorter timeframe chart to pinpoint his entries and exits. Watch him dissect the S&P sectors, overall market, and specific symbols using the multiple timeframe approach. Follow along and come up with a systematic method that can help you gain more confidence in your investment decisions.  

The video premiered on July 2, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page. 

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

For those who focus on sector rotation, whether to adjust portfolio weightings or invest directly in sector indexes, you’re probably wondering: Amid the current “risk-on” sentiment, even with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, can seasonality help you better anticipate shifts in sector performance?

Current Sector Performance Relative to SPY

To find out, let’s first look at how sectors are performing relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), our S&P 500 proxy. The StockCharts Market Summary Mini Charts tab in the US Sectors panel shows you sector ETF performance and its relative performance against SPY.

FIGURE 1. MARKET SUMMARY US SECTORS PANEL. The new micro charts feature provides a chart of each sector’s ETF plus its relative performance against SPY, allowing you to gauge a sector’s strength against the broader market.

Looking at each sector chart over a three-month time frame, only two sectors are outperforming relative to SPY:

  1. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK): Currently outperforming SPY by 13.85%.
  2. Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI): Outpacing SPY by a modest 2.53%.

Spotlight on Technology and Industrials: Leading Sectors in a Risk-On Market

As a side note, Technology and Industrials are two sectors that align with the risk-on narrative. This suggests that the market is currently favoring higher-beta stocks (as XLK’s performance reflects) over safer sectors and that demand for industrial goods is generally rising, a sign investors expect the economy to strengthen.

Understanding Sector Seasonality: What History Tells Us

Now, let’s turn to seasonality. In this context, seasonality refers to the tendency for certain sectors to perform better during specific periods and worse during others. While past performance never guarantees future results, it can help you anticipate how a sector might behave based on historical tendencies, not certainties. 

So, what might the seasonality charts suggest about XLK and XLI in the coming months?.

XLK Seasonality Trends: Tech Sector’s Strongest Months

Take a look at XLK’s 10-year seasonality chart.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLK. While September appears to be tech’s only bearish month from a seasonality perspective, its strongest months are November and July. 

Over 10 years, July has been XLK’s second strongest month, with positive closes 90% of the time and an average monthly return of 4%. The most profitable month is November, with an 89% positive close rate and a 5% average monthly return. August isn’t bad, but July is exceptionally strong and reflects its current overall performance.

XLI Seasonality Patterns: When Industrials Tend to Outperform

Switching over to a seasonality chart of XLI, we get a similar picture.

FIGURE 3. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLI. July is XLI’s strongest month for positive closes, and November is its strongest month for average seasonal returns.

This pattern is pretty exceptional: over the last 10 years, XLI has posted a historical 100% positive close rate in July, with an average return of 3.5%. The strongest returns, however, tend to occur in November, which shows an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 6.5%. The months in between are relatively unremarkable, making July and November stand out significantly. 

Technical Analysis of XLK and XLI

Will July be another up-month for XLK and XLI? Starting with XLK, let’s switch over to a six-month daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XLK. Tech’s upward trajectory is now in overbought territory, yet there’s little sign of slowing.

XLK is at an all-time high, and there’s no clear indication that it’s pulling back just yet. 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is suggesting that XLK has been occupying overbought territory since late June. However, bear in mind that an RSI reading at this level can sustain itself for an extended period. And if you look at the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, it suggests that the buying pressure trend is still rising with no signs of slowing down.

Actionable Tip: Remember, July is one of XLK’s historically strong seasonal months. 

  • But if it does pull back soon, you might expect a bounce near $242.50, which is an area marked by a series of historical swing highs. 
  • Notice how the ZigZag line highlights these key swing points. 
  • Other areas of support sit around $235, its most recent swing low, and $225, the level of its most recent swing low.

Now let’s turn to the daily chart of XLI.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF XLI. Industrials are also surging, although buying pressure may be starting to decline.

Similar to the previous chart, XLI shows a move higher that places it well into all-time high territory. July is also an exceptionally strong month for XLI, but does it have enough fuel to return the seasonal 3.5% that it typically averages this month?

The RSI signals that XLI may be overbought, which, again, can remain there for some time, while the OBV suggests that buying pressure may be easing into a pullback. However, price continues its upward trajectory.

Actionable Tip: If XLI dips, the pullback may be shallow, potentially bouncing near $145, its most recent swing high. A more substantial support level lies around $141, where multiple swing lows have formed. If XLI drops below $141, you can expect further downside movement.

At the Close

While no strategy can guarantee success, combining seasonality insights with price action can help improve your market timing. Keep an eye on support levels as well as momentum and volume. Remember that the strongest months for XLK and XLI tend to be July (the current month) and November. You can add XLK and XLI to your ChartLists and keep an eye on them, especially in the months ahead. 

However, the big takeaway here is to consider using seasonality charts alongside the various tools in the Market Summary, whether you’re considering an individual stock, index (sector or industry), or other asset classes, like commodities and monetary metals. While price action can help you nail down specific market opportunities, seasonality charts can help contextualize current price action and anticipate potential future market scenarios.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Brightstar Resources (BTR:AU) has announced Drilling recommences at Yunndaga

Download the PDF here.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Mark O’Byrne, managing director at Tara Coins, shares his outlook for gold and silver.

He sees much higher prices long term and expects gold to rise to at least US$10,000 per ounce; for silver, O’Byrne believes US$100 to US$150 per ounce is a ‘conservative’ target.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Boeing delivered 60 airplanes last month, the most since December 2023, as the plane maker seeks to raise production of its bestselling 737 Max jets after a series of manufacturing and safety problems.

The tally was the highest since before a door plug from one of its new 737 Max 9 planes blew out midair in January 2024, sparking a new crisis for the company and slowing production and deliveries of aircraft. Of the monthly total, 42 were 737 Maxes, going to customers including Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines and United Airlines.

CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the top job at Boeing last August, has said the company has made progress in improving production rates and quality on its factory lines.

For the three months ended June 30, Boeing handed over 150 airplanes, its best second quarter since 2018, before two crashes of Max planes five months apart grounded the jets and sparked a multiyear crisis at the top U.S. exporter. That was also the last year Boeing posted an annual profit. Its problems also gave rival Airbus a bigger lead over Boeing.

Boeing this spring had been producing about 38 Max aircraft a month and will need Federal Aviation Administration approval to go above that limit, which the agency set after the door plug accident. Ortberg said at a Bernstein investor conference in late May that he’s confident that the company could increase production to 42 of the jets a month.

The company booked 116 gross orders in June, or 70 net orders when including cancellations and accounting adjustments. Boeing often removes or adds orders to its backlog for a variety of reasons including customers’ financial health.

Boeing’s backlog stood at 5,953 as of June 30.

The manufacturer is set to report second-quarter financial results on July 29, when investors will be focused on Ortberg’s plan to increase production and aircraft deliveries.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Amazon is extending its annual Prime Day sales and offering new membership perks to Gen Z shoppers amid tariff-related price worries and possibly some consumer boredom with an event marking its 11th year.

For the first time, Seattle-based Amazon is holding the now-misnamed Prime Day over four days. The e-commerce giant’s promised blitz of summer deals for Prime members started at 3:01 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday and ends early Friday.

Amazon launched Prime Day in 2015 and expanded it to two days in 2019. The company said this year’s longer version would have deals dropping as often as every 5 minutes during certain periods.

Prime members ages 18-24, who pay $7.49 per month instead of the $14.99 that older customers not eligible for discounted rates pay for free shipping and other benefits, will receive 5% cash back on their purchases for a limited time.

Amazon executives declined to comment on the potential impact of tariffs on Prime Day deals. The event is taking place two and a half months after an online news report sparked speculation that Amazon planned to display added tariff costs next to product prices on its website.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denounced the purported change as a “hostile and political act” before Amazon clarified the idea had been floated for its low-cost Haul storefront but never approved.

Amazon’s past success with using Prime Day to drive sales and attract new members spurred other major retail chains to schedule competing sales in July. Best Buy, Target and Walmart are repeating the practice this year.

Like Amazon, Walmart is adding two more days to its promotional period, which starts Tuesday and runs through July 13. The nation’s largest retailer is making its summer deals available in stores as well as online for the first time.

Here’s what to expect:

Amazon expanded Prime Day this year because shoppers “wanted more time to shop and save,” Amazon Prime Vice President Jamil Ghani recently told The Associated Press.

Analysts are unsure the extra days will translate into more purchases given that renewed inflation worries and potential price increases from tariffs may make consumers less willing to spend. Amazon doesn’t disclose Prime Day sales figures but said last year that the event achieved record global sales.

Adobe Digital Insights predicts that the sales event will drive $23.8 billion in overall online spending from July 8 to July 11, 28.4% more than the similar period last year. In 2024 and 2023, online sales increased 11% and 6.1% during the comparable four days of July.

Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, noted that Amazon’s move to stretch the sales event to four days is a big opportunity to “really amplify and accelerate the spending velocity.”

Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights and strategy at software company Salesforce, noted that July sales in general have lost some momentum in recent years. Amazon is not a Salesforce Commerce Cloud customer, so the business software company doesn’t have access to the online giant’s e-commerce sales and so is not privy to Prime Day figures.

“What we saw last year was that (shoppers) bought and then they were done, ” Schwartz said. “We know that the consumer is still really cautious. So it’s likely we could see a similar pattern where they come out early, they’re ready to buy and then they take a step back.”

Amazon executives reported in May that the company and many of its third-party sellers tried to beat big import tax bills by stocking up on foreign goods before President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect. And because of that move, a fair number of third-party sellers hadn’t changed their pricing at that time, Amazon said.

Adobe Digital Insights’ Pandya expects discounts to remain on par with last year and for other U.S. retail companies to mark 10% to 24% off the manufacturers’ suggested retail price between Tuesday and Friday.

Salesforce’s Schwartz said she’s noticed retailers becoming more precise with their discounts, such as offering promotion codes that apply to selected products instead of their entire websites.

Amazon Prime and other July sales have historically helped jump-start back-to-school spending and encouraged advance planners to buy other seasonal merchandise earlier. Analysts said they expected U.S. consumers to make purchases this week out of fear that tariffs will make items more expensive later.

Brett Rose, CEO of United National Consumer Supplies, a wholesale distributor of overstocked goods like toys and beauty products, thinks shoppers will go for items like beauty essentials.

“They’re going to buy more everyday items,” he said.

As in past years, Amazon offered early deals leading up to Prime Day. For the big event, Amazon said it would have special discounts on Alexa-enabled products like Echo, Fire TV and Fire tablets.

Walmart said its July sale would include a 32-inch Samsung smart monitor priced at $199 instead of $299.99; and $50 off a 50-Inch Vizio Smart TV with a standard retail price of $298.00. Target said it was maintaining its 2024 prices on key back-to-school items, including a $5 backpack and a selection of 20 school supplies totaling less than $20.

Independent businesses that sell goods through Amazon account for more than 60% of the company’s retail sales. Some third-party sellers are expected to sit out Prime Day and not offer discounts to preserve their profit margins during the ongoing tariff uncertainty, analysts said.

Rose, of United National Consumer Supplies, said he spoke with third-party sellers who said they would rather take a sales hit this week than use up a lot of their pre-tariffs inventory now and risk seeing their profit margins suffer later.

However, some independent businesses that market their products on Amazon are looking to Prime Day to make a dent in the inventory they built up earlier in the year to avoid tariffs.

Home fragrance company Outdoor Fellow, which makes about 30% of its sales through Amazon’s marketplace, gets most of its candle lids, labels, jars, reed diffusers and other items from China, founder Patrick Jones said. Fearing high costs from tariffs, Jones stocked up at the beginning of the year, roughly doubling his inventory.

For Prime Day, he plans to offer bigger discounts, such as 32% off the price of a candle normally priced at $34, Jones said.

“All the product that we have on Amazon right now is still from the inventory that we got before the tariffs went into effect,” he said. “So we’re still able to offer the discount that we’re planning on doing.”

Jones said he was waiting to find out if the order he placed in June will incur large customs duties when the goods arrive from China in a few weeks.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS