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October 4, 2025

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Chart Mania – 23 ATR Move in QQQ – Metals Lead 2025 – XLV Oversold – XLU Breakout – ITB Moment of Truth

Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at

XLU Leads with New High

Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.

Metal Mania in 2025

In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.

Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper

The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.  

Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.

Thanks for Tuning in!

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Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: Prospector Metals Gains 356 Percent

The big news impacting markets this week is the shutdown of the US government.

While lawmakers were trying to find a funding solution, Democratic and Republican lawmakers were at loggerheads over maintaining funding for Medicaid programs. It marks the first time in seven years that the government has been shut down — the last time came during negotiations over the disputed US-Mexico border wall in December 2018.

President Donald Trump has resolved to use the closure to push through the firing of thousands of federal government employees and cut funding to projects promised by Democrats.

Additionally, the jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday (October 3), was delayed, causing greater uncertainty for analysts and investors who were trying to gauge the strength of the economy in September.

Despite the lack of official government data, payroll processor ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The decline represents a significant difference from the 45,000 jobs analysts had expected to be added.

Lawmakers aren’t scheduled to return to the negotiating tables until early next week.

For more on what’s moving markets this week, check out our top market news round-up.

Markets and commodities react

Canadian equity markets were in positive territory this week by the end of trading Friday.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) continued its record breaking performance this week, gaining 2.33 percent on the week to close Friday at 30,471.68.

The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) performed even better, ending the week up 4.38 percent to 964.04. The CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) was up 3.3 percent on to close out the week at 180.03.

The gold price continued to climb this week, setting another new record, as it achieved an intraday high of US$3,893.82 per ounce on Thursday (October 2). It was still up 3.63 percent on the week at US$3,884.19 by Friday’s close.

The silver price saw more significant gains, rising 6.31 percent to set a year-to-date high of US$48.30 per ounce during trading on Friday before settling at US$47.95 per ounce by 4:00 p.m. EDT.

The silver price is trading at 14 year highs and has been closing in on records set in April of that year.

Copper had sizable gains this week as the fallout from the closure of Freeport’s Grasberg mine continued to ripple through the market. The copper price was up 7.13 percent this week to US$5.11 per pound.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) fell 2.12 percent to end Friday at 546.27.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stocks data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market caps greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.

1. Prospector Metals (TSXV:PPP)

Weekly gain: 355.56 percent
Market cap: C$128.18 million
Share price: C$1.23

Prospector Metals is a gold explorer working to advance its flagship ML project in the Yukon, Canada.

The 10,869 hectare property, situated near Dawson City, is located within the Tintina Gold Belt, which is home to significant historic mining operations and current exploration and development projects.

Exploration at the site has led to the discovery of more than two dozen high-grade gold surface occurrences, including the Bueno target, which has delivered samples with grades of up to 156 grams per metric ton (g/t).

Shares of Prospector surged following the release of assay results on Wednesday (October 1). In its announcement, the company reported significant near-surface, high-grade assays, with one highlighted sample returning grades of 13.79 g/t gold over 44 meters, and another showing 21.93 g/t gold over 24.65 meters, including 288 g/t gold over 1 meter.

2. Sokoman Minerals (TSXV:SIC)

Weekly gain: 200 percent
Market cap: C$45.92 million
Share price: C$0.165

Sokoman Minerals bills itself as a discovery-oriented company with a portfolio of gold projects and one of the largest land positions in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. It also owns a 40 percent stake in the Killick lithium project, a 40/40/20 joint venture with Benton Resources (TSXV:BEX) and Piedmont Lithium (ASX:PLL).

Its primary focus is its flagship Moosehead gold project, located in Central Newfoundland. The project consists of 98 claims covering 2,450 hectares and hosts an orogenic Fosterville-style gold system, according to Sokoman. The company has defined seven zones with high-grade mineralization through over 130,000 meters of drilling.

Sokomon reported on September 12 that it planned to start diamond drilling at the site with a focus on testing the Eastern and Western Trend zones for depth extensions, as well as undiscovered parallel zones. Additionally, the company said on September 2 that it had expanded its land position at the Crippleback Lake gold-copper property to 13,000 hectares and planned to mobilize for induced-polarization surveys, sampling and mapping of the site.

The most recent news from the company came on Monday (September 29), when it announced that Denis Laviolette was appointed to the roles of director, executive chair and CEO. Laviolette joins the company with over two decades of experience in the mining industry, including roles in geology and production, and as an industry analyst.

The company also announced that Timothy Froude will be transitioning to the role of company president, having previously held both the president and CEO roles. Additionally, Gary Nassif, former senior vice president of Lode Gold Resources (TSXV:LOD,OTCQB:LODFF), was appointed as a director, and Greg Matheson, former COO of New Found Gold (TSXV:NFG,NYSEAMERICAN:NFGC), was named vice president of exploration.

3. Kesselrun Resources (TSXV:KES)

Weekly gain: 118.18 percent
Market cap: C$10.82 million
Share price: C$0.12

Kesselrun Resources is an explorer working to advance the Huronian gold project in Ontario, Canada.

The project is located in a region with significant exploration and mining assets, including Agnico Eagle Mines’ (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM) Hammond Reef project and New Gold’s (NYSE:NGD,TSX:NGD) Rainy River mine. Historic indicated resources at Huronian are 45,000 ounces of gold, with inferred quantities of 501,000 ounces or gold.

Shares of Kesselrun surged this week after Gold X2 Mining (TSXV:AUXX,OTCQB:GSHRF) announced on Wednesday that it had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Kesselrun. Gold X2 said the transaction will give it a 100 percent interest in the Huronian project, which is located adjacent to its own Moss gold project.

4. Royal Road Minerals (TSXV:RYR)

Weekly gain: 104.35 percent
Market cap: C$55.80 million
Share price: C$0.235

Royal Road is an exploration company working to advance its Güintar and Margaritas projects and the El Aleman mining concession in Colombia. The company acquired the adjacent Güintar and Margaritas properties, located near Medellin, from major miner AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU,JSE:ANG) in 2019. Since that time, Royal Road has drilled a total of 13,700 meters across 45 drill holes at Güintar, while Margaritas remains untested.

Assays have produced a highlighted intersection of 1 g/t gold equivalent over 303.7 meters, which includes 2.1 g/t gold, 12.4 parts per million silver and 0.6 percent copper over 62 meters.

Shares of Royal Road gained this week alongside a pair of news releases. On Monday, the company announced that Rio2 (TSXV:RIO,OTCQX:RIOFF) has acquired approximately 15 percent of Royal Road’s issued and outstanding shares as part of a block trade; they were previously held by a single investor.

The other release came on Tuesday (September 30), when Royal Road reported that it has engaged with state and local authorities, as well as the local community, to restart work at Güintar and Margaritas.

5. StrikePoint Gold (TSXV:SKP)

Weekly gain: 103.85 percent
Market cap: C$12.06 million
Share price: C$0.265

StrikePoint Gold is an explorer with a focus on its Hercules gold project in Nevada, US.

The 100 square kilometer site, located within the Walker Lane Trend, hosts five drill-tested targets, with over 300 holes. The company acquired the property in August 2024 from Elevation Gold Mining for a total consideration of C$250,000, along with a 3 percent royalty on certain claims. On April 28, the company released results from its spring drilling program, with one highlighted assay returning values of 0.54 g/t gold and 4.62 g/t silver from 32.04 meters below surface; that includes an interval of 1.14 g/t gold and 10.53 g/t silver over 4.57 meters.

The most recent news from the project was announced on September 23, when StrikePoint said it had received drill permits for the Pony Meadows target. The company noted that it is permitted to mobilize up to three rigs, and will focus on a 2.6 kilometer structure that was revealed during surface exploration.

StrikePoint said it has two additional permits for the Sirens and Como Comet targets.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

What is the difference between the TSX and TSXV?

The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, and the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.

How many mining companies are listed on the TSX and TSXV?

As of May 2025, there were 1,565 companies listed on the TSXV, 910 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,899 companies, with 181 of those being mining companies.

Together, the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Editor’s Picks: Gold Price Sets Sights on US$3,900, Silver Breaks US$48

The gold price continued to move this week, approaching the US$3,900 per ounce level and setting a fresh all-time high on the back of a US government shutdown.

The closure came after Congress failed to reach an agreement on a spending bill ahead of the new American fiscal year, which began on Wednesday (October 1).

Democrats and Republicans are at odds as Democrats push for changes to the bill, including an extension to billions of dollars in Obamacare subsidies; meanwhile, President Donald Trump has threatened thousands of permanent layoffs, not just temporary furloughs.

This shutdown is the 15th since 1981, and according to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, it could continue on until next week as the two sides negotiate. The longest government shutdown happened between 2018 and 2019, during Trump’s first presidency, and lasted for 35 days.

Part of the reason market watchers see this shutdown as significant is that it will delay the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report, which was set to come out on Friday (October 3).

Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, September consumer price index data, which is scheduled for publication on October 15, may also not be on time.

The US Federal Reserve is due to meet later this month, from October 28 to 29, and normally would use this and other data to help make its decision on interest rates. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, and CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool currently shows strong expectations for another 25 basis point reduction at the next gathering.

Although gold took a breather after nearing US$3,900, it remains historically high, with many market watchers suggesting US$4,000 is in the cards in the near term.

In the longer term, some experts have even loftier expectations — for example, Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozenwajg sees a path to a five-figure gold price.

‘It’s not going to happen under normal circumstances — it’s not going to happen when everything’s going great. But by the end of this cycle, will we get there? I think we probably will,’ he said.

It’s also worth touching on silver, which pushed past the US$48 per ounce mark this week. Unlike gold, silver has not yet broken its all-time high during this bull run — it’s pushing up against uncharted territory, raising questions about how high it can go this time.

On that note, David Morgan of the Morgan Report shared several factors that would tell him the market is reaching a top. Here’s what he said:

‘You want to look at exchange-traded fund flows like the GDX, GDXJ, SIL and SILJ. At the same time, more important than almost anything is trading volume at the stock level. When mid-tier and smaller producers suddenly trade three, four or five times their normal daily volume, and prices are rising, that isn’t random. That’s retail money coming back into the market, and fund buying and probably institutions.

‘One more layer of confirmation is relative to performance. When the mining sector starts to outperform the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX), which it has, and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC), which it has, it’s a telltale sign that the generalist money, not just the hard money crowd, is beginning to rotate in.’

Bullet briefing — CEO shakeup at Barrick, Newmont

Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) and Newmont (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) both announced major executive changes this week, with the CEOs of both companies departing.

Barrick’s Mark Bristow unexpectedly stepped down from his position on Monday (September 29) after nearly seven years at the helm of the firn. His exit, which was effective immediately, comes after big changes at the firm, including a shift toward copper and an asset divestment program designed to hone the company’s focus on tier-one assets.

It also follows persistent issues in Mali, where Barrick lost control of its gold-mining complex and had 3 metric tons of the yellow metal seized by the government.

According to Reuters, Bristow’s handling of that ongoing situation was the final straw that prompted the company’s board to push for a change in leadership.

Newmont announced the retirement of Tom Palmer the same day. He had held the position since 2019, and will be succeeded by the company’s president and COO. Analysts note that Newmont had been signaling that a succession plan was in the works.

Similar to Barrick, the company has been in the midst of an extensive program geared at streamlining its portfolio. Newmont acquired Newcrest Mining in 2023, and in February 2024 announced a program to sell non-core assets. It completed the program in April of this year, but has continued to make portfolio adjustments, and to pursue other cost-saving measures.

Market watchers note that despite efforts to boost efficiency, Barrick and Newmont have both failed to match the performance of their peers during today’s bull market.

Year-on-year share price performance of major gold miners.

Chart via Google Finance.

With gold-mining companies conscious of not repeating missteps made during the precious metal’s last runup, investors will no doubt be keen to see how they perform under new management.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com