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October 9, 2025

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Saskatchewan Implements New 3 Percent Lithium Royalty, Provides Clarity to Companies

Saskatchewan has introduced a new royalty framework for lithium production, marking a major step toward supporting the province’s growing role in Canada’s critical minerals sector.

The amendments to 2017 subsurface mineral royalty regulations formally establish a 3 percent Crown royalty on the value of brine mineral sales, coupled with a two year holiday for new productive capacity.

Provincial officials said the change aligns Saskatchewan’s royalties for lithium with those already applied to potash, salt and sodium sulfate, and keeps the province competitive with leading jurisdictions worldwide.

“Lithium is a critical mineral that is expected to see strong demand and growth in the decades ahead, and Saskatchewan is well-positioned to take advantage of this opportunity,” Energy and Resources Minister Colleen Young said.

“By putting this royalty framework in place now, we are providing certainty for industry, while ensuring the people of Saskatchewan benefit as this sector develops,” Young added.

Industry participants have welcomed the move, calling it a clear signal that the province intends to be a serious player in the global lithium supply chain. Canada-based explorer EMP Metals (CSE:EMPS,OTCQB:EMPPF) described the royalty rate as internationally competitive and a meaningful boost for project economics.

“This is very welcome news. The government of the province of Saskatchewan has once again proven itself to be supportive of lithium production in the province,” EMP Metals CEO Karl Kottmeier said. “This is a highly competitive royalty rate internationally, and a two-year royalty holiday on new production immediately makes a positive impact on financial modelling of what is already a compelling business case for our Project Aurora lithium production project.”

Grounded Lithium (TSXV:GRD) President and CEO Gregg Smith noted that the policy encourages further investment, while recognizing the high upfront costs of developing processing capacity.

“This new regulatory framework provides a reasonable royalty rate while also recognizing the significant risk and initial investment companies make in processing facilities to ultimately achieve commercial production,” he said.

Saskatchewan has emerged as one of Canada’s top destinations for mining investment. The Fraser Institute’s annual mining company survey ranked it the country’s leading jurisdiction, with the province projected to attract over US$7 billion in mining investment this year — more than a quarter of Canada’s total.

The lithium framework also aligns with the province’s broader Critical Minerals Strategy, launched in 2023 to position Saskatchewan as a key contributor to Canada’s resource independence and energy transition.

The plan targets a 15 percent share of national mineral exploration by 2030, the doubling of critical mineral production, and the expansion of existing potash, uranium, and helium output.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Crypto Market Update: Bitcoin Takes Back Losses, Analysts Predict Price Rally Will Continue

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (October 8) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$123,495, up by 1.5 percent in 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s lowest valuation of the day was US$121,829, and its highest was US$124,072.

Bitcoin price performance, October 8, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Despite retreating to around US$121,000 on Tuesday (October 7), Bitcoin on-chain data and a rising relative strength index still indicate strong momentum and accumulation, with resistance near US$135,000 and support around US$113,300. Analysts believe the crypto market is transitioning from a speculative phase to a “maturity phase,” where institutional strategies and asset allocation will drive price discovery rather than retail hype.

A new report from CF Benchmarks forecasts that Bitcoin could climb another 20 percent to reach US$148,500 by the end of 2025, while the number of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is expected to double to 80.

The report also projects that stablecoins could hit US$500 billion in circulation.

Various macro factors are shaping this bullish narrative for the sector. Market uncertainty tied to US President Donald Trump’s economic and fiscal policies, his ongoing tension with the Federal Reserve and uncertainty surrounding the ongoing government shutdown have spurred what analysts describe as a “debasement trade.” Investors seeking protection from currency risk are turning to traditional hedges like gold, and increasingly to Bitcoin.

The Fed’s recent interest rate cut has provided additional support for risk assets. CF Benchmarks expects two more reductions by the end of the year, bringing rates closer to the 3.25 percent level.

Despite inflation concerns, analysts argue that Bitcoin remains undervalued, sitting at the lower end of its estimated fair-value range between US$85,000 and US$212,000. According to trader Ted Pillows, if Bitcoin manages to hold the US$120,000 area, it could mark the beginning of a reversal phase and signal renewed bullish momentum.

By Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin had steadied near US$123,400, recovering some losses, with ETF inflows continuing to boost institutional confidence. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies currently stands at around US$4.3 trillion, per CoinGecko, while the circulating value of stablecoins has already surpassed $300 billion.

Ether (ETH) also slid after last week’s rally, but has since recovered some of its losses. It was up by 0.7 percent over 24 hours to US$4,518.05. Ether’s lowest valuation on Wednesday was US$4,441.20, and its highest was US$4,544.36.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) was priced at US$229.20, an increase of 1.6 percent over the last 24 hours and its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest valuation on Wednesday was US$220.04.
  • XRP was trading for US$2.91, up by 3.2 percent over the last 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$2.86, and its highest was US$2.92.

Crypto derivatives and market indicators

Total Bitcoin futures open interest was at US$98.85 billion, an increase of roughly 0.84 percent in the last four hours.

Ether open interest stood at US$60.24 billion, down by 0.07 percent in four hours.

Bitcoin liquidations were at US$34.01 million over four hours, primarily forcing long positions to close, which could lead to selling pressure. Ether liquidations totaled US$25.18 million, with the majority being short positions.

Fear and Greed Index snapshot

CMC’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed into high neutral territory after dipping to fear during the last week of September. The index currently stands around 55, inching closer to greed.

CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index, Bitcoin price and Bitcoin volume.

Chart via CoinMarketCap.

Today’s crypto news to know

JPMorgan says stablecoins could add US$1.4 trillion in dollar demand by 2027

A new JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) research note estimates that global stablecoin adoption could generate up to US$1.4 trillion in additional demand for US dollars within the next two years, according to Reuters.

The bank’s analysts argue that as foreign investors and corporations increasingly hold dollar-pegged stablecoins, they will effectively strengthen the greenback’s global position. The report projects that the stablecoin market could reach US$2 trillion in a high-end scenario, up from roughly US$260 billion today.

With 99 percent of stablecoins pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, JPMorgan says expansion will translate directly into higher dollar-denominated reserves. The findings counter fears that digital currencies could accelerate “de-dollarization” by offering alternatives to the US financial system.

ICE to invest US$2 billion in Polymarket

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is making a major bet on crypto-powered prediction markets. The company announced plans to invest up to US$2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the blockchain-based betting platform at about US$8 billion, a sharp rise from its US$1 billion valuation just two months ago.

Polymarket has gained prominence for its political, sports and entertainment wagers, including high-profile bets on the US presidential race. The deal will allow ICE to distribute Polymarket’s market data globally, signaling a push to integrate event-based contracts into mainstream finance. Founder Shayne Coplan said in a press release that the investment “marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream.”

The firm is also working to re-enter the US market after acquiring a small derivatives exchange earlier this year.

BNY Mellon to explore tokenized deposits

BNY Mellon, the world’s largest custodian bank, is reportedly exploring tokenized deposits to enable instant, 24/7 fund transfers for clients, aiming to overcome limitations in legacy systems. Carl Slabicki, executive platform owner for Treasury Services, stated that this initiative is part of an effort to upgrade real-time and cross-border payments. The goal is to move a portion of BNY’s US$2.5 trillion daily payment flow onto the blockchain.

Slabicki highlighted that tokenized deposits help banks overcome technology constraints, facilitating the movement of deposits and payments within their own ecosystems and eventually across the broader market.

S&P Global to launch new crypto ecosystem index

The S&P Global, in partnership with Dinari, is creating a new investment index that will bring together both cryptocurrencies and publicly traded blockchain-related companies into a single benchmark called the S&P Digital Markets 50 Index. The index will include 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 public companies in the sector.

No single component will exceed 5 percent. Major companies like Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) are expected to be included.

Dinari plans to issue a tokenized version of the index, known as a “dShare,” which would allow investors to gain direct exposure. The investable version is expected to launch by the end of 2025.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com