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November 7, 2025

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Crypto Market Update: Ripple Raises US$500 Million, Canada Makes Stablecoin Plans

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (November 5) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$103,902, a 3.3 percent increase in 24 hours and its highest valuation of the day. Bitcoin’s lowest valuation on Wednesday was US$102,377.

Bitcoin price performance, November 5, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) are showing signs of recovery after a volatile start to the week. Current price action is driven by derivatives liquidations, options settlement dynamics and sustained retail and institutional fear.

Ether ended the trading day at US$3,448.04, an increase of 7.5 percent over the last 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$3,326.02. Like Bitcoin, Ether is attempting a rebound near a significant technical and psychological level, but uncertainty remains elevated. The Fear and Greed Index remains in “extreme fear” at 20, reflecting persistent nervousness after long-term holders and whales triggered mass liquidations.

“Market data and technical signals suggest Bitcoin may trade within a US$94,000–US$118,000 range in the near term. The lower bound represents a healthy retracement zone consistent with subdued ETF inflows, while the upper range reflects a measured recovery below the October high near US$125K. Ethereum is likely to move between US$3,000 and US$4,400, supported by Layer-2 expansion and renewed DeFi participation,’ she said via email.

“Overall, the market appears to be stabilizing in a more disciplined, data-driven manner, signaling that confidence is returning through structural resilience and steady capital reallocation.”

Meanwhile, Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, said that the investment company has lowered its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast from US$185,000 to US$120,000.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) was priced at US$162.69, up by 6.6 percent over the last 24 hours and at its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$157.65.
  • XRP was trading for US$2.37, up by 9.7 percent over the last 24 hours to its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$2.25.

Crypto derivatives and market indicators

Over the past four hours, Bitcoin has seen liquidations totaling US$16.11 million, mostly in short positions, suggesting a short-covering rally and improving near-term sentiment. Futures open interest is fractionally down 0.15 percent to US$70.17 billion, indicating a minor position reduction after aggressive selling earlier in the week.

The funding rate is neutral at 0.001, signaling balanced sentiment between longs and shorts, while implied volatility remains elevated at 45.9 percent, pointing to continued market uncertainty.

Max pain for options expiry sits at US$104,000, a level that the Bitcoin price is approaching.

Meanwhile, US$27.84 million in Ether options positions, also primarily shorts, have been liquidated in the past four hours, contributing to the uptrend as risk reversals shift. Ether has seen a 1.51 percent increase in open interest to US$40.3 billion, and its funding rate is slightly negative at -0.001, strengthening the bullish undertone.

Bitcoin dominance stands at 57.21 percent.

Today’s crypto news to know

Ripple secures US$500 million boost at US$40 billion valuation

Ripple has raised US$500 million in a new funding round led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities, valuing the company at US$40 billion. The investment follows Ripple’s US$1 billion tender offer earlier this year at the same valuation, marking a continuation of investor confidence in the firm’s long-term outlook.

Ripple said the funds will strengthen its partnerships with financial institutions and expand its services across custody, stablecoin issuance and crypto treasury management. The company’s RLUSD stablecoin has gained traction for corporate payments amid clearer US regulations under the GENIUS Act. The funding also positions Ripple to deepen its role in global payments as more firms integrate stablecoins into settlement networks.

Canada announces plans to introduce stablecoin legislation

The Canadian government announced as part of its 2025 budget that it plans to introduce legislation regulating fiat-backed stablecoins. The legislation aims to provide a secure, stable framework encouraging the development of Canadian-dollar pegged stablecoins, modernizing payment systems and fostering digital innovation.

The new rules will require stablecoin issuers to maintain sufficient asset reserves to back their digital currencies, safeguard consumer interests and comply with national security standards to protect personal data.

The Bank of Canada will receive C$10 million over two years starting in the 2026 to 2027 period to oversee the new framework, with ongoing costs expected to be covered by stablecoin issuers.

Northern Data exits Bitcoin mining in US$200 million AI transition

Northern Data Group, Europe’s largest Bitcoin-mining company, is divesting its mining arm, Peak Mining, in a deal worth up to US$200 million as it pivots entirely toward artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The transaction includes US$50 million in upfront cash and up to US$150 million in performance-based payments tied to future profits.

The move follows the Bitcoin halving this past April, which cut mining revenues in half and accelerated the firm’s strategic shift. The company plans to repurpose its mining facilities in Texas for high-performance AI workloads, which can yield up to 10 times more revenue per megawatt than Bitcoin mining.

The company already owns over 220,000 GPUs through prior acquisitions.

Balancer protocol suffers major exploit

The Balancer DeFi protocol suffered a major exploit on Tuesday (November 3), losing about US$128 million in assets from its V2 Composable Stable Pools due to a precision rounding error and access control flaws in its smart contracts.

According to a report released after the attack, the infiltrator manipulated swap calculations and batch swaps to drain liquidity across multiple blockchains, including Ether, Polygon, Arbitrum and others.

Balancer promptly paused affected pools, confirmed no impact on V3 or other versions, and is collaborating with forensic and security experts to trace and recover funds. So far, US$19.3 million worth of StakeWise osETH has been recovered. Balancer has offered a white hat bounty for full asset return within 48 hours and continues investigating.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Agriculture Market Update: Q3 2025 in Review

Fertilizer prices remained elevated in Q3 compared to both the first half of the year and the end of 2024.

Potash prices surged at the start of the year as the Trump administration threatened tariffs on Canada, the top supplier to US farmers. During the third quarter, prices were 20 percent higher than at the end of last year.

Meanwhile, phosphate prices continued to climb through Q3 on the back of supply shortages, spurred by export restrictions from top producer China. Prices were further influenced by US tariffs.

What happened to phosphate and potash prices in Q3?

According to data from the World Bank, the average quarterly phosphate price rose to US$770.60 per metric ton (MT), up from US$673.20 in Q2, and significantly higher than the annual average of US$563.70 in 2024.

On a monthly basis, phosphate climbed to US$736 in July, then climbed to a three year high of US$795.10 in August. Since then, the price has fallen to US$780.63 in September and US$754 in October.

The quarterly average for potash fell slightly in Q3 to US$352.20 per MT, down from US$359.20 the previous quarter, but remained higher than US$283.90 in the last quarter of 2024.

On a monthly basis, potash prices eased to US$362.50 in July, and continued to fall to US$356.50 in August. They sank further to US$352.50 in September and US$352 in October.

What factors impacted phosphate in Q3?

Phosphate prices have been primarily influenced over the last several years by export restrictions from China, which have declined to 6.6 million MT in 2024 from 9 million MT in 2021. The restrictions were put in place to protect the domestic supply, and while the hope was that they would eventually ease, that hasn’t happened.

“As expected, their exports started to arrive in July to September; however, the government had a self-imposed October 15 cutoff date for export submission. That date came and went without an extension, so now the belief is their flows will slow to a crawl very soon,” he said. The situation may face additional headwinds, as China has imposed more restrictions on key battery technologies and precursors for phosphate-based batteries. These restrictions will add to demand for ex-China supply as the agricultural sector competes with battery makers for a limited supply of phosphate.

Demand for phosphate is also high, particularly from India, which has been working to increase its stockpiles since the end of 2024, when they reached a low of 1.1 million MT. However, stockpiles had more than doubled to 2.4 million MT at the start of October, with imports climbing to 4 million MT during the April to September period.

Much of the demand has been covered by supply from Saudi Arabia and Morocco, which signed several offtake agreements with Indian importers in July. “They were a major driver of higher prices for much of 2025 as they played catch up on stockpiles, and have finally reached a comfortable number of tons, which has allowed them to slow their desperate pace. The slower demand pace has allowed the market time to breathe/correct lower,” Linville said.

For US-based farmers, supply isn’t the only issue.

On August 7, a host of new tariffs as high as 25 percent were applied to phosphate imports, including from Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 54.7 percent of imports during the first five months of the year. Although there were some concerns that higher prices could prompt farmers to rethink their strategy, Linville hasn’t seen that materialize either.

With reports that farm yields this year have been higher, it may prompt farmers who have been on the fence about a fall application of phosphate to reconsider, as a significant yield would indicate some phosphate soil depletion.

“While still spoty, we are continuing to hear reports that phosphate demand is better than expected,” he said.

However, Linville noted that a surge in last-minute demand it could make supplies tighter and limit the ability for phosphate to make it onto the fields.

What factors impacted potash in Q3?

Linville said potash news was quiet during the quarter, pointing to stable prices and a well-supplied market.

In July, BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) announced it was delaying the opening of its Jansen mine in Saskatchewan. It was initially slated to start production in 2026, but has instead moved its timeline back to 2027 and is also considering pushing the second phase to 2031, citing cost overruns that have ballooned to US$7 billion.

Although potash has so far escaped US tariffs, Linville noted some concern following Ontario’s anti-tariff ad, which ran in the US during the World Series. “We continue to hope/believe that potash will be left alone as part of the North America Trade agreement. Assuming potash is left alone, markets should continue as normal; however, if we start seeing barriers to entry, US farmers will likely bear the brunt of most/all of those tariffs,” he said

Potash and phosphate price forecast for 2025

While potash markets remain stable, phosphate markets are much more dynamic.

Unless there is a significant shift in China’s exports, supply should remain tight. In his most recent weekly update on November 5, Linville noted that the situation could become dire for US consumers before the end of the year.

“We continue to advise our people that if they decide they need phosphate after all, do not wait to lock it up. Days very well may matter. Heck, hours might matter. Supplies are tight and can ill-afford a sudden demand jump,” he wrote.

Additionally, markets are likely to become further strained in the years to come as limited supply meets increased demand from outside the agricultural sector.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

October monthly job cuts surged to a 22-year high

U.S.-based companies announced more than 153,000 job cuts in October, the research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.

“This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008,’ the firm said in a news release.

From January through the end of October, employers have announced the elimination of nearly 1.1 million jobs. It’s the most Challenger has recorded since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the global economy.

“October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month,’ Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer, said in a statement. The last time there was a higher October monthly total was in 2003.

“Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” he said.

On Wednesday, the private payroll processor ADP released its own October jobs data, showing that employers added just 42,000 jobs in the month.

The ADP report also flagged job losses in the leisure and hospitality sector as a potential sign of trouble ahead, given the industry’s acute sensitivity to consumer sentiment.

ADP’s chief economist called the losses in hospitality and leisure a ‘concerning trend.’

Both Challenger and ADP’s reports landed as major companies such as Amazon, IBM, UPS, Target, Microsoft, Paramount and General Motors announced plans to eliminate tens of thousands of jobs.

Despite the wave of downbeat economic news, the Trump administration continues to deliver an upbeat take on the current environment.

“Jobs are booming” and “inflation is falling,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday.

However, the most recent available data paints a different picture.

Inflation has also been on the rise. Prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index overall have risen every month since April.

A spokesperson for the Treasury Department did not immediately reply to a request for comment on the Challenger report.

Challenger’s report does not typically carry the same weight with economists and investors as federal jobs data, owing to its methodology.

To arrive at its figures, the firm compiles the number of job cuts companies have publicly announced. But employers may not ultimately carry out all the cuts they roll out.

Moreover, some of the job cuts that multinational companies announce could affect workers outside of the United States. Other headcount reductions could be achieved through attrition, rather than layoffs. The report also may not capture smaller layoffs over the long run.

But in the midst of a federal data blackout caused by the government shutdown, Challenger’s latest report is being read more closely than usual.

The federal government’s October jobs report that would traditionally be released Friday will not be published this week, due to the shutdown.

Other key data about the U.S. economy like GDP and an inflation indicator called PCE, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, has also been delayed.

Challenger equated the impact of AI on the current labor market to the rise of the internet in the early aughts. “Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,” it said.

‘Technology continues to lead in private-sector job cuts as companies restructure amid AI integration, slower demand, and efficiency pressures,’ Challenger said.

But even firms that are not actively cutting jobs have warned that they do not plan to add to their headcount in the near term, with several pointing directly to AI’s impact on their personnel needs.

On Wednesday night, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNN that headcount at his company would likely remain steady as the nation’s largest bank rolls out AI internally.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon also recently told his employees that the firm would ‘constrain headcount growth through the end of the year,’ as it takes advantage of AI efficiencies, Bloomberg reported.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS