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December 3, 2025

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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Monday (December 1) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$85,482.46, down by 6.4 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 1, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin marked its largest single-day decline in a month, continuing a sell-off that started in November.

This sharp downturn was influenced largely by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December meeting, which triggered a surge in Japanese bond yields, strengthening the yen and prompting global investors to pull capital from risk assets like Bitcoin. This caused liquidations of speculative long positions and created downward price pressure.

However, significant technical support levels lie around US$86,000 to US$79,600, with further downside possible to US$67,700 and major support between US$45,000 and US$70,000 if bearish momentum persists. Holding above roughly US$85,200 is critical to avoid deeper bearish territory.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange VALR, added that concerns about MSCI potentially excluding major crypto-holding companies such as Strategy from global indices are adding pressure through expected forced sell-offs, further weakening market structure and liquidity.

“The recovery of the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin in particular, after the decline of the last month and a half, will take some time. The main questions at the moment are how the market will close out this year and whether Bitcoin will recover above $100,000 in December.”

Ether (ETH) also experienced a steep decline, priced at US$2,757.79, down by 8.9 percent over 24 hours.

Derivatives data

Derivatives data showed US$10.93 million liquidated in BTC shorts positions over the final four hours of trading, indicating short sellers getting squeezed out as price stabilized rather than accelerating lower.

Open interest edged up 0.50 percent to US$57.63 billion, showing fresh positions entering despite the dip, which often signals sustained trader interest and potential stabilization or rebound setup.

A funding rate of -0.001 percent reflects mild bearish sentiment, common in corrections but not extreme enough to indicate panic selling. BTC’s RSI at 32.58 marks deeply oversold territory, suggesting selling may be nearing a climax and creating conditions for a short-term bounce if support holds.

Altcoin price update

  • XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.02, down by eight percent over 24 hours.
  • Solana (SOL) was trading at US$124.54, down by 9.3 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bitcoin’s weekend slide wipes out US$637 million in leveraged positions

Bitcoin’s latest downturn over the weekend triggered a wave of liquidations that erased roughly US$637 million across futures markets.

The selloff pushed Bitcoin to an intraday low near US$85,700, extending its monthly decline past 21 percent and dragging Ethereum, XRP, and other majors sharply lower. The slump began as momentum-driven selling forced heavily leveraged longs to unwind, turning a routine correction into a fast, disorderly slide.

Comments from Strategy CEO Phong Le about potentially selling part of the company’s sizable Bitcoin holdings added to jitters, even though prediction markets continue to see a low probability of actual disposals this year.

“We can sell Bitcoin, and we would sell Bitcoin if needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Le said in a podcast.

The company currently controls 649,870 BTC, which valued at about US$56.26 billion at current prices.

Further, China’s central bank reiterating its hard line against crypto activity further weighed on sentiment heading into the final month of the year.

Goldman Sachs boosts ETF offerings with Innovator Capital acquisition

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has agreed to buy Innovator Capital Management, a company specializing in defined outcome ETFs, in a deal worth about US$2 billion in cash and stock, according to a Monday announcement.

Defined outcome ETFs are special funds that limit losses or cap gains for investors using options contracts.

Innovator’s US$28 billion in assets and 159 ETFs will significantly enhance Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s ETF portfolio, increasing that bank’s total ETF lineup from US$51 billion to US$79 billion.

The acquisition payment partly depends on Innovator meeting certain performance targets after the deal closes, which were not publicly disclosed. The deal is expected to close in Q2 2026, subject to regulatory approval and other usual conditions.

Goldman Sachs will fully own the Innovator business, integrating its 60-plus employees into Goldman’s teams. However, Innovator’s investment managers and services will remain unchanged.

Tether blasts S&P after fresh downgrade

Tether pushed back forcefully this week after S&P Global cut its assessment of USDT’s peg stability, assigning the stablecoin the lowest score on the agency’s scale.

S&P pointed to weaker reserve quality, shrinking cash-equivalent holdings, and rising exposure to secured loans and Bitcoin as reasons for the downgrade.

The report noted that Tether’s Bitcoin holdings now exceed the cushion meant to absorb volatility, increasing the risk that a sharp price drop could leave the token undercollateralized.

Tether’s leadership dismissed the rating as biased and politically motivated.

‘Some influencers are either bad at math or have the incentive to push our competitors,’ Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in a recent post on X.

After the downgrade last week, Ardoino also maintained that ‘the traditional finance propaganda machine is growing worried when any company tries to defy the force of gravity of the broken financial system.’

The downgrade also comes as Tether’s mining affiliate winds down operations in Uruguay after months of unpaid power bills and stalled expansion plans.

Japan prepares 20 percent flat tax on crypto gains

Japan is moving toward a flat 20 percent tax on cryptocurrency gains, a change that would replace the current progressive regime that can push rates above 50 percent for active traders.

Nikkei Asia reported that under the proposal, crypto income would be placed into a separate category similar to equities, with the goal of reducing distortions that discourage trading or push users offshore.

Lawmakers backing the plan say aligning digital assets with other investment products could draw liquidity back to domestic exchanges and boost overall tax receipts.

The reform is expected to be finalized as part of the country’s 2026 tax framework, with revenue split between the national and local governments.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Oil prices climbed higher on Monday (December 1) as an escalation in US-Venezuela tensions reached a fever pitch, offsetting weeks of losses driven by oversupply expectations.

The shift also came after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a key transit route that carries about 1 percent of global oil, halted operations over the weekend. The company reported that a mooring point at its Russian Black Sea terminal was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack, temporarily curbing exports.

Ukraine has also targeted two oil tankers heading toward Novorossiysk, further rattling market sentiment.

The supply shock landed just as OPEC+ opted to leave production levels unchanged for Q1 2026.

The group had signaled the possibility of a pause as early as November, seeking to avoid exacerbating what analysts feared could become a sizeable glut. The decision provided a modest anchor for traders recalibrating expectations.

“For some time, the narrative has centred on an oil glut, so OPEC+’s decision to maintain its production target provided some relief and helped stabilise expectations for supply growth in the coming months,” Anh Pham, senior analyst at data provider LSEG, explained to Reuters.

Even with Monday’s rise, both Brent and WTI futures settled lower this past Friday (November 28). This marked their fourth straight monthly decline and the longest losing streak since 2023.

Venezuela condemns US “colonialist threat”

A far more dramatic source of volatility also emerged from Washington over the weekend.

On Saturday (November 29), US President Donald Trump declared that “the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed, posting a warning on social media.

Trump also told service members last week that US forces would “very soon” begin land-based operations targeting Venezuelan drug-trafficking networks. Further, reports surfaced that the White House and Caracas had held a tense, last-ditch phone call aimed at defusing a worsening standoff.

According to sources cited by the Miami Herald, Washington told President Nicolás Maduro he could secure safe passage for himself, his wife Cilia Flores and his son only if he stepped down immediately. The conversation stalled as Venezuela refused to surrender control of its armed forces or agree to Maduro’s resignation.

Washington has been increasingly aggressive toward what it describes as Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles, which US officials accuse Maduro and senior leaders of operating.

Last month, the Department of State’s decision to designate the cartel a foreign terrorist organization placed Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López in the same legal category as al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Caracas condemned the aggression, labeling it as a “colonialist threat” seeking support from its allies.

On Sunday (November 30), Maduro issued an appeal to fellow OPEC members, urging the bloc to help counter what he described as “growing and illegal threats” from the United States.

In a letter published by state broadcaster TeleSUR, he accused Washington of trying to “seize” Venezuela’s oil reserves and warned that US military pressure could disrupt the global energy market.

“I hope to count on your best efforts to help stop this aggression, which is growing stronger and seriously threatens the balance of the international energy market, both for producing and consuming countries,” Maduro wrote.

Venezuela exported just US$4.05 billion worth of crude oil in 2023, far below other major producers, due largely to US sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term.

Brent crude stood at US$62.76 per barrel on Tuesday (December 2) morning, while WTI was trading at US$58.93.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com