Nickel price in Q4

There wasn’t much change at the start of the quarter; the price was essentially trading in the US$15,000 to US$15,500 range, the same as it had since recovering from the post-liberation day tariff announcement rout in the base metals market in April that sent the price spiraling to a year-to-date low of US$14,150.

Nickel price, December 19, 2024, to December 18, 2025.

Chart via TradingEconomics.

However, cracks began to form at the end of October as it became clearer that the oversupply situation was likely to persist, pushing prices back below the US$15,000 mark by mid-November.

Prices for nickel rebounded in late November, but failed to break the US$15,000 again and slid toward a yearly low, reaching US$14,235 on December 15.

Oversupply continues to weigh on nickel

At the end of the year’s third quarter, the expectation was that nickel prices would carry momentum as the monsoon season arrived in the Philippines; however, despite seasonal declines in output, the market ‘s supply glut persisted, and prices continued to trend lower at the end of the period.

As of September 30, London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses held 231,504 MT of nickel, and by November 28, stockpiles had grown to 254,364 MT, nearly 100,000 MT higher than the start of 2025.

According to a mid-December Shanghai Metals Market article, refined production decreased by 25,800 MT in November. Still, it was outpaced by inventory accumulation, as downstream demand remained soft.

On the demand side, stockpile buildups coincided with the traditional off-season for stainless steel producers, which accounts for 60 percent of total nickel demand, and weak end-use consumption led some producers to initiate output cuts. Additionally, Shanghai Metals Market notes that stainless demand was further impacted by the superior economics of recycled materials. The outlet also states that although production costs in Indonesia are lower than elsewhere, the price of nickel is rapidly approaching producers’ break-even point.

In February, the Indonesian government changed its quota system, increasing nickel ore output to 298.5 million wet metric tons from 271 million wet metric tons in 2024. The move from the top nickel producer was designed to alleviate supply pressures, with increased production limited to major production areas.

This was followed in October by a change to the length of time production quotas were valid, shortening it to one year from three years, and forcing miners to reapply for previously approved quotas for 2026 and 2027.

Changes were made to the application system after companies failed to meet environmental obligations, and companies will now have to submit proof they have the financial means to remediate land after operations are complete.

Adding to the metal’s woes at the end of the year is demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector slipping as more battery producers pivot away from nickel in their chemistries, as cheaper lithium-iron-phosphate batteries improve efficiency.

For her part, Manthey, explained that everything has aligned for a bear market.

“LME stockpiles are at a four-year high, with Chinese and Indonesian cathode dominating,” she said, adding that growth in battery metals was slower than expected, and that demand for stainless steel was sluggish on the back of global weakness in manufacturing.

How did nickel perform for the rest of the year?

The rest of the year wasn’t much different for nickel.

The oversupply situation carried over from 2024, with Indonesian producers making up roughly 60 percent of the market. Likewise, curtailments continued among western producers as prices were unable to cover costs.

In April, the Indonesian government made a significant change to its royalty rates, hiking them to between 14 and 19 percent, depending on the nickel price. That’s up from the country’s previously imposed 10 percent flat rate, with a 2 percent royalty on nickel mattes destined for battery production.

As the second quarter began, base metal prices sank amid rising expectations of a global recession following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2.

Markets rebounded after their initial tariff plans were walked back, following a bond market squeeze that pushed 10 year treasury yields up by more than half a percentage point.

Nickel faced further pressures in July as the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law in the US, ending the federal EV tax credit, as well as other tax credits for expanding charging infrastructure. The change came into effect on September 30 and eliminated a US$7,500 rebate on the purchase of new EVs. Before the end of the tax credit, data showed that American EV sales reached a record 1.2 million through the first nine months of 2025, with the share for EVs climbing to 12 percent in Q3 as consumers made purchases ahead of the program’s end.

Q4 data shows EV sales have declined significantly since the tax credit expired, and interest in EVs has fallen by 20 percent. The fall caused Ford Motor (NASDAQ:F) to pull back on its EV plans and take a US$19.5 billion writedown.

Investor takeaway

Nickel prices continued on a downtrend in 2025, and expectations aren’t much different for the year ahead.

Until the metal see ssustained upward momentum, it’s unlikely that curtailed western operations will be restarted.

For experienced investors, this may offer an opportunity to enter a market closer to the bottom than the top. However, until there is a significant correction in supply and demand fundamentals, the nickel market won’t have much of a tailwind, leading to a riskier market, that may have a lengthy period before returns are realized, if at all.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$88,004.97, up by 3.6 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 19, 2025.

Chart via TradingView

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$2,991.30, up by 7.2 percent over the last 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$1.91, up by 5.7 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$126.85, up by 7.6 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

MetaPlanet boosts US expansion efforts

American depositary receipts of Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet (TSE:3350,OTCQX:MPJPY) began trading on the OTC market under the ticker symbol MPJPY, replacing the previously unsponsored MTPLF ticker.

This step builds on earlier US expansions. The Tokyo-based company established a wholly owned subsidiary called Metaplanet Treasury in Miami, Florida, in May to handle Bitcoin accumulation and treasury operations with up to US$250 million in capital. The launch is intended to enhance US investor participation in MetaPlanet’s Bitcoin strategy.

Poland parliament approves MiCA-aligned crypto bill

Poland’s lower house of parliament, called the Sejm, approved a crypto asset market bill, overriding President Karol Nawrocki’s prior veto. It now heads to the Senate for review, where it potentially faces another veto.

Nawrocki vetoed the bill earlier in December, citing threats to civil liberties like easy website blocks. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government resubmitted the bill, unchanged. It passed with 241 votes.

The bill aligns Poland with the EU’s MiCA regulation by designating the Financial Supervision Authority to oversee crypto exchanges, impose sanctions and introduce criminal liability for offenses.

Senate confirms Selig as CFTC chair

The US Senate has confirmed Mike Selig as the next chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), bringing permanent leadership back to an agency that has operated for months in near limbo.

Selig’s confirmation passed 53 to 43 as part of a broader package of federal appointments. The CFTC had been functioning with a single commissioner, Acting Chair Caroline Pham, after multiple resignations hollowed out the five member panel. While Pham kept the agency operational, the lack of a Senate-confirmed chair constrained long-term planning, staffing and coordination with other regulators.

That gap was especially acute as lawmakers debated expanding the CFTC’s role in overseeing spot crypto markets.

Clarity Act heads for Senate markup in January

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set to enter Senate markup in January, according to David Sacks, White House crypto and artificial intelligence (AI) adviser, putting the bill on a formal path toward passage.

‘We had a great call today with Chairmen @SenatorTimScott and @JohnBoozman who confirmed that a markup for Clarity is coming in January. Thanks to their leadership, as well as @RepFrenchHill and @CongressmanGT in the House, we are closer than ever to passing the landmark crypto market structure legislation that President Trump has called for,’ Sacks posted on X. ‘We look forward to finishing the job in January!’

Senate Committee on Banking Chair Tim Scott and Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee Chair John Boozman have agreed on the timeline.

The bill, which cleared the House earlier this year, aims to settle long-running jurisdiction disputes by spelling out when a token is a security versus a commodity. Lawmakers are expected to focus amendments on asset classification tests, investor protection standards and how quickly platforms must register under the new regime.

Another key issue will be how the US Securities and Exchange Commission and CFTC coordinate oversight during the transition period. If the schedule holds, Congress could finalize a reconciled version later during the year.

Bybit re-enters UK market after two years

Crypto exchange Bybit has resumed operations in the UK after a two year absence triggered by tighter rules on crypto marketing and promotions. The platform has restarted spot trading with 100 pairs, using a compliance structure designed to meet the Financial Conduct Authority’s financial promotion standards.

Rather than holding its own UK authorization, Bybit is operating under an arrangement with London-based exchange Archax, which is licensed to approve crypto promotions for unauthorised firms.

This route has previously been used by other major exchanges seeking access to British users.