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February 19, 2026

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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD,OTCPL:GSISF) has struck a recommended deal to acquire Magnetic Resources (ASX:MAU) in a transaction that would add more than 2 million ounces of high-grade gold to its Laverton inventory and reshape its production growth outlook in Western Australia.

Under a binding Scheme Implementation Deed announced Tuesday (February 17), Genesis will acquire 100 percent of Magnetic via a court-approved scheme of arrangement. The offer values Magnetic at approximately US$450 million on a fully diluted basis.

At the centre of the deal is Magnetic’s flagship Lady Julie gold project in the Laverton region, which hosts a mineral resource of approximately 2.2 million ounces grading 1.8 grams per tonne (g/t) gold, and ore reserves of around 1 million ounces at 1.7 g/t. The project sits roughly 20 kilometres from Genesis’ operating 3 million tonne per annum Laverton mill.

“This transaction creates substantial value for both groups of shareholders, delivering genuine synergies while combining the right assets with the right people,” Genesis Executive Chair Raleigh Finlayson said.

“Magnetic’s Lady Julie Gold Project will add more than 2Moz at an attractive high grade to Genesis’ Laverton inventory, further bolstering the mine life and production outlook.”

Lady Julie’s northern boundary adjoins ground recently acquired by Genesis through its purchase of Focus Minerals’ (ASX:FML,OTCPL:FCSUF) Laverton gold project, creating the potential to integrate what would otherwise be neighbouring standalone developments into a larger open pit operation.

Genesis said removing tenement boundaries between the assets presents tangible cost and operational synergies. The acquisition would expand its Laverton mineral resources to approximately 8.4 million ounces, representing a 40 percent increase, and lift its pro forma total mineral resources to 21 million ounces.

The company signaled that the deal could support an uplift to its “ASPIRE 500” growth strategy, with an updated multi-year plan expected following completion.

Magnetic Managing Director George Sakalidis said the deal follows a strategic review exploring development pathways for Lady Julie: “Genesis’ offer follows a strategic review which the Board and its advisers have been working on for several years to explore potential options to collaborate with other operators which have the existing skill set or combination synergies to develop Magnetic’s discoveries and unlock value for our shareholders.’

If implemented, Magnetic shareholders would own approximately 2.4 percent of the enlarged Genesis. Major shareholders representing about 19.6 percent of Magnetic’s issued shares have already committed to vote in favour of the scheme, subject to customary conditions.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Warner Bros. Discovery said Tuesday that it was reopening talks with Paramount Skydance, giving the studio a week to rival Netflix in its bid to take over the streaming and cable giant.

In a statement, Warner Bros. Discovery said it had rejected the latest $30-a-share offer from Paramount but would give the company until Monday ‘to make its best and final offer.’

It also said a ‘senior representative’ of Paramount had indicated that the CBS owner would be willing to meet an even higher price, $31 a share, seemingly enticing the board back to the table.

At the same time, Warner Bros. is still recommending its shareholders vote at a special meeting March 20 to approve the $82.7 billion deal it reached in December to sell its streaming service, studio and HBO cable channel to Netflix.

Paramount is seeking to buy the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery.

‘Every step of the way, we have provided [Paramount Skydance] with clear direction on the deficiencies in their offers and opportunities to address them,’ David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, said in the statement.

In a letter to the Paramount board — chaired by David Ellison, also the company’s CEO and controlling shareholder — Warner Bros. said that while Paramount had indicated it would address ‘unfavorable terms and conditions,’ these had not yet been removed from the proposed merger agreement.

Warner Bros. has repeatedly rejected previous bids from Paramount, citing the ‘insufficient value’ offered.

In a separate statement, Netflix hit out at what it called Paramount’s ‘antics.’

‘Throughout the robust and highly competitive strategic review process, Netflix has consistently taken a constructive, responsive approach with WBD, in stark contrast to Paramount Skydance,’ it said.

Netflix said that it was ‘confident that our transaction provides superior value and certainty’ but also recognized ‘the ongoing distraction for WBD stockholders and the broader entertainment industry caused by’ Paramount. The company said it granted Warner Bros. the one-week window to reopen talks with Paramount to ‘fully and finally resolve this matter.’

Netflix also took aim at the regulatory process required for either company to complete a takeover.

It said that Paramount has ‘repeatedly mischaracterized the regulatory review process by suggesting its proposal will sail through.’

‘WBD stockholders should not be misled into thinking that PSKY has an easier or faster path to regulatory approval — it does not,’ Netflix said.

In a statement, Paramount Skydance reiterated its existing offer to Warner Bros. Discovery of $30 per share. The company did not indicate if it would submit a higher bid.

Paramount called the one-week negotiating window ‘unusual’ but said it ‘is nonetheless prepared to engage in good faith and constructive discussions.’

The Ellison-backed media giant also said it would continue advocating against the Netflix deal and submit a slate of directors for Warner Bros.’ board at the upcoming shareholder meeting, as it previously planned to.

President Donald Trump, whose administration approved Ellison’s takeover of Paramount last year, said early in the bidding process he would be involved in approving a deal with Warner Bros.

But earlier this month, Trump changed his tune. ‘I’ve been called by both sides, it’s the two sides, but I’ve decided I shouldn’t be involved,’ he told ‘NBC Nightly News’ anchor Tom Llamas.

Trump still hinted that one company looked problematic to him. ‘I mean, there’s a theory that one of the companies is too big and it shouldn’t be allowed to do it,’ he said.

‘They’re beating the hell out of each other and there’ll be a winner,’ Trump said.

Warner Bros. has an archive of storied movies, as well as a diverse portfolio of brands including CNN and HBO.

The bidding war for the media empire comes at a pivotal time for the entertainment industry, with traditional broadcasters and studios facing serious challenges from digital newcomers Netflix, Apple and Amazon.

Since Netflix announced its deal to buy parts of Warner Bros. Discovery, its shares have tumbled nearly 25%.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is stepping in to stop what it calls an “onslaught” of state-level regulation of prediction markets.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said Tuesday in a video posted on X that the agency has filed a “friend of the court brief” in support of Crypto.com in its escalating legal battle with regulators in Nevada.

The move is significant because it marks the first time under Selig that the CFTC has taken sides in what is shaping up to be an epic fight between regulators and prediction markets, platforms that allow users to trade contracts tied to a wide range of events, from local elections to the Super Bowl.

By intervening, Selig’s CFTC is effectively arguing that prediction markets are federally regulated and not subject to state-level gambling laws.

“Over the past year, American prediction markets have been hit with an onslaught of state-led litigation,” Selig said in the video.

“The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products,’ said Selig.

The debate over how the platforms should be regulated comes as they explode in popularity. Kalshi said Super Bowl 60 generated more than $1 billion in total trading volume — a 2,700% increase from last year.

It’s a fight with broad implications and high stakes. Over the past year, several states including Massachusetts and Nevada have moved to restrict prediction markets, filing lawsuits, issuing cease-and-desist letters and arguing that the platforms amount to unlicensed gambling.

Utah’s Republican governor, Spencer Cox, said in a post on X Tuesday that he will use “every resource” within his disposal to “beat” Selig in court.

“These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling—pure and simple,” he said. “They are destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men. They have no place in Utah.”

Meanwhile, Cox’s fellow Republican, Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, issued his support of Selig’s announcement on X. “Clear lines of delineation and clarity on regulations is essential for American led innovation,’ he said.

Selig’s move comes days after a group of Democratic senators led by Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto sent the chairman a letter urging the CFTC to ‘abstain from intervening in pending litigation involving contracts tied to sports, war, or other prohibited events.’

As states attempt to rein in these fast-growing platforms, the question is no longer simply whether these products amount to gambling. It’s who gets to decide that question.

Industry advocates argue that the platforms aren’t gaming, which is traditionally regulated by states. Instead, they claim the prediction markets are financial exchanges that fall under the CFTC’s purview, where users trade contracts with one another. and don’t bet against a “house.” The exchanges don’t set odds or take the opposite side of trades. Instead, they collect transaction fees, similar to a brokerage.

In the video, Selig said prediction markets allow Americans to “hedge commercial risks like increases in temperature and energy price spikes,” and they act as “an important check on our news media and our information screens.”

He ended the video with a warning directed at the state attorneys general who are on the front lines of the legal fights to regulate prediction markets: “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear: We will see you in court.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS