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Week Ahead: NIFTY Stays In Technically Challanging Situation; Sector Rotation Shows Likely Change In Leadership

After a very strong move in the week before this one, the markets chose to take a breather. They moved in a wide range but ended the week on a mildly negative note after rebounding from their low point of the week. While defending the key levels, the markets largely chose to stay within a defined range. The trading range remained reasonably wide; the Nifty oscillated in a 600.55-point range over the past five sessions. The volatility inched modestly higher; the India Vix rose 4.40% to 17.28 on a weekly basis. While keeping its head above crucial levels, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 166.65 points (-0.67).

The coming week will be an expiry week; we will have monthly derivatives expiry playing out as well. Going by the options data, the Nifty has created a trading range between 25100 and 24500 levels. The markets are likely to consolidate in this 600-point trading range. A directional bias would emerge only if the Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside convincingly or ends up violating the 24500 level. While the underlying trend stays intact, the markets are unlikely to develop any sustainable trend so long as they do not move past the 25100 level. While the markets stay in the defined range, it would be prudent to vigilantly guard profits at higher levels and rotate sectors effectively to remain invested in the relatively stronger pockets.

The coming week is likely to see the levels of 25000 and 25175 acting as potential resistance points. The supports come in lower at 24600 and 24450 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 60.14; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has formed a trading range between 25100 on the higher side and 24500 on the lower side. This means that a directional bias would emerge only if Nifty moves past 25100 convincingly or violates the 24500 level. Until either of these two things happens, we will see the Nifty consolidating in this defined range. The Nifty has so far defended the pattern support level that also exists in the 24400-24500 zone.

Overall, the markets continue to remain in a challenging environment and face strong resistance near the 25100 level. So long as the Nifty stays below this level, it stays prone to corrective spikes, which may also keep volatility at slightly elevated levels as well. Given the current technical structure, it would be imperative that not only the sectors be rotated properly to stay invested in relatively stronger pockets, but all existing gains must also be vigilantly guarded at current levels by the investors. While continuing to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels, a cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that while the Nifty Consumption, PSU Bank, Infrastructure, Banknifty, FMCG, and Commodities indices are in the leading quadrant, all are showing a distinct slowdown in their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index. While these groups are likely to show resilience and may relatively outperform, except for the Consumption Index, they are giving up in favor of other sectors that are showing renewed relative strength.

The Nifty Financial Services Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Services Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.

While the Nifty Pharma Index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the IT Index, which is also inside the lagging quadrant, is showing sharp improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty, Auto, Midcap 100, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant. These groups are expected to continue bettering their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Trump clears Nippon merger with U.S. Steel

President Donald Trump on Friday cleared the merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, after the Japanese steelmaker’s previous bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares surged more than 20% to close at $52.01 per share after Trump’s announcement.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro applauded the agreement, saying he worked with local, state and federal leaders ‘to press for the best deal to keep U.S. Steel headquartered in Pittsburgh, protect union jobs, and secure the future of steelmaking in Western Pennsylvania.’

In his own statement, Lieutenant Gov. Austin Davis called the announcement ‘promising,’ but added: ‘I want to make sure everyone involved in the deal holds up their end of the bargain. I look forward to seeing the promised investments become a reality and the workers receive everything they’ve fought for.’

President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion in January, citing national security concerns. Biden said at the time that the acquisition would create a risk to supply chains that are critical for the U.S.

Trump, however, ordered a new review of the proposed acquisition in April, directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to determine “whether further action in this matter may be appropriate.”

Trump said he would hold a rally at U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh on May 30.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Why Trump’s iPhone tariff threat might not be enough to bring production to the U.S.

The once-solid relationship between President Donald Trump and Apple CEO Tim Cook is breaking down over the idea of a U.S.-made iPhone.

Last week, Trump said he “had a little problem with Tim Cook,” and on Friday, he threatened to slap a 25% tariff on iPhones in a social media post.

Trump is upset with Apple’s plan to source the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. from its factory partners in India, instead of China. Cook confirmed this plan earlier this month during earnings discussions.

Trump wants Apple to build iPhones for the U.S. market in the U.S. and has continued to pressure the company and Cook.

“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday.

Analysts said it would probably make more sense for Apple to eat the cost rather than move production stateside.

“In terms of profitability, it’s way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to US,” Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote on X.

UBS analyst David Vogt said that the potential 25% tariffs were a “jarring headline” but that they would only be a “modest headwind” to Apple’s earnings, dropping annual earnings by 51 cents per share, versus a prior expectation of 34 cents per share under the current tariff landscape.

Experts have long held that a U.S.-made iPhone is impossible at worst and highly expensive at best.

Analysts have said that iPhones made in the U.S. would be much more expensive, CNBC previously reported, with some estimates ranging between $1,500 and $3,500 to buy one at retail. Labor costs would certainly rise.

But it would also be logistically complicated.

Supply chains and factories take years to build out, including installing equipment and staffing up. Parts that Apple imported to the United States for assembly might be subject to tariffs as well.

Apple started manufacturing iPhones in India in 2017 but it was only in recent years that the region was capable of building Apple’s latest devices.

“We believe the concept of Apple producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale that is not feasible,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a note on Friday.

Other analysts were wary about predicting how Trump’s threat ultimately plays out. Apple might be able to strike a deal with the administration — despite the eroding relationship — or challenge the tariffs in court.

For now, most of Apple’s most important products are exempt from tariffs after Trump gave phones and computers a tariff waiver — even from China — in April, but Apple doesn’t know how the Trump administration’s tariffs will ultimately play out beyond June.

“We’re skeptical” that the 25% tariff will materialize, wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers.

He wrote that Apple could try to preserve its roughly 41% gross margin on iPhones by raising prices in the U.S. by between $100 and $300 per phone.

It’s unclear how Trump intends to target Apple’s India-made iPhones. Rakers wrote that the administration could put specific tariffs on phone imports from India.

Apple’s operations in India continue to expand.

Foxconn, which assembles iPhones for Apple, is building a new $1.5 billion factory in India that could do some iPhone production, the Financial Times reported Thursday.

Apple declined to comment on Trump’s post.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

3 Stocks to Watch While Everyone’s Staring at NVIDIA

This week, while everyone else is focused on NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), we will focus our attention on stocks with earnings that may get overlooked.

We’re watching a different group of stocks heading into earnings: Okta, Inc. (OKTA), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), and Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM). OKTA and AZO are making new highs as they head into their earnings call, while CRM is struggling.

Let’s break down the best risk/reward set-ups as we kick off the week.

Okta, Inc. (OKTA): Volatility Now, Potential Later

Okta’s stock price broke out to new 52-week highs a week before it posts its quarterly numbers. The cybersecurity company has experienced extreme volatility after posting earnings. In the last three quarters, the stock saw some pretty big swings—up 24.3%, up 5.4%, and down 17.6%. Its average price change post-earnings is +/-10.2%.

Technically, I love this setup. Let’s look at a five-year daily chart.

Shares have broken out ahead of earnings and have a lot to reverse. If we see weakness after results, there are several support areas where we would want to enter the stock with favorable risk/reward. The first strong support area is between $115/$118, an old resistance level that the stock just eclipsed. Old resistance could act as new support and provide an opportunity.

Outside of recent weakness due to “Liberation Day,” OKTA’s stock price has outperformed its peers and held key moving averages. Use levels just below the 50-day moving average around $110 as a near-term stop if $115 doesn’t hold.

To the upside, there is much to reverse and targets of $150 to $160 are attainable. If you’re a longer-term investor, the downtrend is broken and the bulls are back in charge.

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): Riding Steady 

The retail leader in automotive replacement parts and accessories, AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), continues to rise, slowly and steadily, despite market volatility. The stock price is up 20% year-to-date, and we hope to add to those gains when they report on Tuesday morning.

One thing that has helped AZO’s continued growth is that the average car is roughly 12 years old. Consumers are investing more in maintenance and repairs instead of purchasing new vehicles. And with tariffs, buying a new car becomes more expensive, which benefits the car repair and maintenance business.

Let’s look at that long-term uptrend on a weekly chart going back five years.

The stock is a juggernaut. It has ridden the 50-week moving average consistently since Covid. It is in a beautiful uptrend and made new highs again just last week.

While the trend itself appears a tad extended above its averages, any trip back towards its recent uptrend line gives investors a strong entry point, with downside risk towards its 50-week moving average.

It’s also the best in class when compared to its top competitors, such as O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Advanced Auto Parts (AAP). When looking at strong uptrends in a challenging environment, it’s best to find the best in class, and AZO continues to be just that. The trend continues to be the investor’s best friend.

Salesforce (CRM) Hits a Crossroads

A year ago, Salesforce (CRM) shocked investors with a revenue miss for the first time since 2006. This resulted in the stock price dropping 20% (red box in the chart below). It marked the stock’s low point, as it rallied as much as 74% over the next seven months. It now sits in the middle of a wide year-long range and is poised to move again.

Which way will it go? To examine that question, let’s look at the daily chart of CRM.

Technically, shares are at a crossroads. Shares dropped 37% from their December peak after forming a double top. It just broke its near-term downtrend from its post-Liberation Day lows, experiencing a 28% rally, but paused right at its 200-day moving average.

Momentum appears to be negative. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has formed a bearish crossover, and shares failed to eclipse the 200-day. Shares are down -18% for 2025, underperforming the tech sector and the S&P 500. CRM sold off late Friday, hitting its 50-day moving average, on news that it’s in talks to acquire Informatica.

If you’re thinking of buying CRM, you may want to hold your horses. Watch the 50-day moving average around $270 to see if it can hold. On strength, look for confirmation and a close above the $295 level for an all clear that momentum has finally shifted in favor of the bulls.

Final Thoughts

OKTA, AZO, and CRM are thoughtful plays based on technical trends and real-world fundamentals. OKTA and AZO could have favorable risk/reward setups. As for CRM, add it to your ChartLists and monitor it regularly.

My Durable Advantage as an Investor is My Experience: Here are Seven Examples

It scares me to admit I’ve been investing for over 50 years. It’s been a great ride, and fortunately I’m still going strong. One of my investment mantras thru all these years has been Charlie Munger’s quintessential advice: “try to be consistently not stupid.”

We all make investing mistakes, but not all of us learn the appropriate lessons from those mistakes. This blog is less about mistakes and more about lessons. If the investment genie were to offer me a redo on my portfolio management execution from these past decades, here are seven things I would do differently next time around.

  1. More USA, less international. I know what you’re thinking—what about diversification? But I believe that William O’Neil had it right all along. American ingenuity is where you want to invest. Besides, great American companies do business all over the globe. Microsoft is doing your diversification for you.
  2. Hot money managers are not worth chasing. I’ve been guilty of this. Sometimes it works, but only if you get in early and don’t overstay to the point when their hot hand inevitably cools — and it will. I have a long list of managers who can claim this crown.
  3. Keep it simple. Adding complexity or asset classes or different methodologies to your portfolio mix seldom results in outperformance, but we investors will continue to be tempted. Something about human nature wants to seek out complexity. Fight the urge.
  4. Private equity and hedge funds. Recently, the number of new funds and new money has swollen significantly. I never liked the high fees, long terms and lack of liquidity. There are just too many other sensational stock market options (albeit less sexy for cocktail party discussions.)
  5. Fees matter. Even small differences matter and will add up over time. Too often, investors pay for the Los Angeles Dodgers and end up getting the Wichita Mudcats.
  6. Ride those winners! I’ve had five long term holdings that have paid a lot of bills. Hold tight when you find an AMZN, MSFT, COST, V, or MA.
  7. Investing is the art of man versus markets. The voodoo within investing is how best to control your Investor Self. If you memorize only one of the 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery from our book, let it be Stage 3—The Investor Self.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

P.S. If you would like to be notified when I post a new Traders Journal blog, please submit your preference via the tile in the right column titled FOLLOW THIS BLOG.

Josef Schachter: Oil to US$80 by Q4? Plus When to Buy the Dip in Stocks

Josef Schachter of the Schachter Energy Report shares his updated outlook for oil and natural gas.

He sees a buy window potentially opening for stocks in June, and also believes oil prices are due to rise.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Editor’s Picks: ECB Issues Gold Warning, Uranium Stocks Jump on Trump Executive Orders

It was a slow start to the week for gold, but it didn’t take long for the price to pick up.

The yellow metal began the period at the US$3,220 per ounce level, but was gaining steam by Tuesday (May 20), briefly breaking US$3,300. Gold continued higher the next day, and after pulling back briefly on Thursday (May 22) was able to finish the week strong, changing hands at the US$3,360 level.

Bond market turmoil is one factor that’s been influencing gold’s price movements.

A Wednesday (May 21) auction of 20-year bonds was poorly received, with yields surging past 5.1 percent to reach the highest level seen since November 2023. Yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds were also on the rise, with the latter nearing a two-decade high as stocks and the dollar took hits.

The upheaval in bonds came on the back of US President Donald Trump’s efforts to get the One Big Beautiful Bill through the House. Slowing the passage of the wide-ranging domestic policy package were concerns that Trump’s plan to cut taxes would significantly increase US debt.

‘Make no mistake, the bond market will have its own vote on the terms of the budget bill. It doesn’t seem this president or this Congress is actually going to meaningfully reduce the deficit’ — George Catrambone, DWS Americas

Last week’s downgrade of US debt from Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) also didn’t help bonds. The agency bumped its rating down from AAA, its highest ranking, to AA1, which is one step lower. It expects even larger deficits in the US in the coming decade as government revenue stays flat and entitlement spending rises.

The One Big Beautiful Bill ultimately passed on Thursday by a very slim margin, receiving 215 votes in favor and 214 against. It will now proceed to the Senate, where it may face further obstacles.

Contained in the bill are tax cut extensions for both individuals and corporations, as well as provisions for removing taxes on tips and overtime. Among other points, it also allows for tax deductions on American-made vehicles, and offers ‘Trump savings accounts’ for newborns. It cuts funding to initiatives like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, better known as SNAP.

Preliminary analysis from the Congressional Budget Office, which is a nonpartisan organization, suggests that the bill will increase the federal deficit by US$3.8 trillion during the 2026 to 2034 period.

Bullet briefing — Trump signs nuclear orders, ECB issues gold warning

Trump executive orders boost uranium stocks

The uranium sector got a boost on Friday (May 23) after Trump signed several executive orders geared at overhauling the country’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission and speeding up nuclear reactor deployment.

‘It’s a hot industry. It’s a brilliant industry. You have to do it right,’ Trump told reporters about the nuclear energy sector. The executive orders also focus on power up US uranium mining and enrichment, and will allow nuclear reactors to be built on federal land.

The news sent uranium stocks powering higher, with sector major Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) closing the day up 10.04 percent at C$80.55. Denison Mines (TSX:DML,NYSEAMERICAN:DNN) and Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) saw even larger gains of 13.49 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (ARCA:URNM) finished up 12.14 percent.

Gold a threat to financial stability?

A note from the European Central Bank (ECB) turned heads this week with the suggestion that certain dynamics could make the gold market a threat to financial stability. Here’s a key excerpt from the report:

While gold prices are driven by many factors, investors showed high demand for gold as a safe haven asset and, at the beginning of 2025, a notable preference for gold futures contracts to be settled physically. These dynamics hint at investors’ expectations that geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty could remain elevated or even intensify in the foreseeable future. Should extreme events materialise, there could be adverse effects on financial stability arising from gold markets.

The full ECB report is definitely worth a read if you have the time.

China’s April gold imports surge

Gold’s high price hasn’t deterred buyers in China — new customs data from the country shows that April imports clocked in at 127.5 metric tons, an 11 month high.

That’s also a 73 percent increase from the previous month, according to Bloomberg. The news outlet notes that China’s central bank controls the flow of gold in and out of the country, so the strong increase is likely the result of fresh quotas given to some commercial banks.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

FTC drops Biden-era suit accusing Pepsi of price discrimination

The Federal Trade Commission voted to dismiss a lawsuit filed in the last days of the Biden administration that accused PepsiCo of offering sweetheart pricing to big retailers.

FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson dissented to the suit when it was filed in January, when he was one of the regulator’s commissioners. Now the agency’s leader, Ferguson on Thursday again criticized the case as “a nakedly political effort to commit this administration to pursuing little more than a hunch that Pepsi had violated the law.”

“The FTC’s outstanding staff will instead get back to work protecting consumers and ensuring a fair and competitive business environment,” he said in a statement.

The FTC voted 3-0 to drop the suit. The panel is supposed to be made up of five commissioners, no more than three of whom can share the same political party. But it is currently led by three Republicans after President Donald Trump fired its two Democratic commissioners in March. The two ousted officials have slammed their removals as illegal and are urging a judge to reinstate them.

Pepsi welcomed the FTC decision Thursday. “PepsiCo has always and will continue to provide all customers with fair, competitive, and non-discriminatory pricing, discounts and promotional value,” a spokesperson said in a statement. Beyond its namesake soda, the company makes an array of snacks and other food products, including Doritos, Rold Gold pretzels and Sabra hummus.

Former FTC Chair Lina Khan, who led the commission when the agency brought its case against Pepsi, criticized the move Thursday as “disturbing behavior” by the agency.

“This lawsuit would’ve protected families from paying higher prices at the grocery store and stopped conduct that squeezes small businesses and communities across America,” she wrote on X Thursday evening. “Dismissing it is a gift to giant retailers as they gear up to hike prices.”

The decision comes little more than a week after top-ranking Democrats on Capitol Hill sent a letter to Pepsi demanding more information about its pricing strategy. They sought to revive a Biden-era focus on price-gouging as a driver of inflation, an argument that has taken a back seat to the Trump administration’s attention on purportedly unfair trade arrangements.

But major corporations continue to draw scrutiny from the White House over pricing in other ways. Last weekend, Trump slammed Walmart for warning that it was likely to raise prices to offset the costs of his import taxes, demanding on social media that it “EAT THE TARIFFS.”

In the days since then, other major consumer brands have appeared to tread cautiously around pricing. Target said Wednesday that charging customers more would be its “very last resort.” Home Depot virtually ruled out price hikes this week, and Lowe’s barely mentioned tariff impacts in its Wednesday earnings call at all.

CORRECTION (May 22, 2025, 8:45 p.m. ET): Due to an editing error, a previous version of this article misstated when congressional Democrats sent their letter to Pepsi. It was on May 11, not last weekend.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

MACD + ADX: Spot the Pullbacks Worth Trading

In this video, Joe shares how to use MACD and ADX indicators to analyze stock pullbacks, focusing on the good while avoiding the weak setups. He explains how these indicators can complement one another. Joe then shows the Summary Page in ACP and how he uses it on a regular basis to look at different markets, including the SPX, COMP, S&P 600, 10-Year Rates, Copper, Gas, and a few Country Funds. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including CRSP, VC, and more.

The video premiered on May 21, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

S&P 500 Slide Explained: What Past Price Action Reveals About Market Dips

On Wednesday, only 4% of the S&P 500’s holdings logged gains — a pretty rare occurrence. Since the start of 2024, this has only happened three other times:

  • August 5, 2024: The last day of the summer correction
  • December 18, 2024: The Fed’s hawkish cut
  • April 4, 2025: Tariffs

Let’s recall that major trading lows were etched last August, and again just a few weeks ago in early April. The S&P 500 ($SPX) dropped 10% and 21%, respectively, from its peak to trough both times, with the lows being marked by emphatic capitulation events (April 7 was the real pivot low). The market’s rubber band violently snapped back in the ensuing weeks, both times.

FIGURE 1. PAST LOWS IN THE S&P 500 INDEX. Note the rebounds following the August 5, December 18, and April 4 drops.With the SPX now having gained 20% from the April low, the setup is more like mid-December 2024. The index had just gained 19% from early August through early December and was hovering near 6,100. The FOMC’s actions put a major dent in the calm uptrend.

The S&P 500 didn’t completely crumble after that, spending the next 10 weeks backing and filling. But the market’s character changed, and the cracks eventually gave way to the waterfall decline.

So, what does that tell us about this moment? There’s a clear risk given the one-sided advance the last few weeks, but, with bullish patterns still in play and the $SPX having built up a big cushion, it can afford to back and fill again now. It’s the first gut punch in four weeks, and the market must prove it can absorb it.

Short-Term View of the S&P 500

The drawdown measured from this Monday’s high now stands at -2.4% — most of which happened on Wednesday. Given how small the moves have been over the last few weeks, Wednesday’s big decline hit the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on the two-hour chart very hard. It’s now at 41, which is very close to the 30-oversold threshold.

Again, we’ve seen the short-term indicator fall to oversold territory several times, even during the market’s upswing from August through December. Seeing that happen again this time wouldn’t be a surprise. If it happens, it will be important to see the ensuing bounce pull the SPX back to overbought territory relatively soon. Remember, we went nearly four months between overbought readings from late January through mid-May.

FIGURE 2. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500 WITH RSI.

S&P 500 Patterns

Despite the sell-off, there was no change in the patterns at work. The two bullish patterns remain in play, with targets of 6,125 and 6,555, respectively. The S&P 500 started Thursday, at about 2.5% above the last breakout zone (5,695).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 WITH BULLISH PATTERNS. Here you see the pattern with a 6,125 target.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500 WITH 6,555 PRICE TARGET.

Monitor the VIX

Not surprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) gained 15% on Wednesday in response to the market’s sell-off. It remains close to 20, but continues to log higher lows, which has been the trend since late 2024. Indeed, it’s way off spike highs from April, but it’s a trend worth watching.

Let’s recall that the VIX never truly capitulated in 2022, but its trend of higher lows coincided with the equity market’s downtrend. When the SPX logged a true low in October 2022, lower lows in the VIX became evident. This lasted through this past summer.

If the snapback in the SPX turns into a longer, new uptrend, the VIX’s uptrend will morph into a downtrend again.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX).

Bonds Display Bullish Patterns

The bullish pattern in the weekly 30-Year Treasury yields and 10-Year Treasury yields is crystal clear. An acceleration through the 2023 highs after Wednesday would have an obvious negative effect on stocks.

As discussed before, the equity market has shown it can advance with higher rates, as long as said rates go higher gradually. The intermittent up-moves in rates have been capped for the last two years as well. Thus, stocks have been able to withstand it. That wasn’t the case from January to September 2022, and that’s the potential concern.

FIGURE 6. WEEKLY CHART OF THE 30-YEAR US TRASURY YIELD INDEX.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF THE 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD INDEX.

Bitcoin Holding Strong

So far, Bitcoin has maintained noticeable relative strength even as stocks got hit hard on Wednesday. Simply put, continuing to hold above this breakout zone would keep the new measured move target of 142k in play.

FIGURE 8. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD WITH ITS MEASURED MOVE TARGET.

From another perspective, this move can also be viewed as the fourth wedge breakout since 2023. The prior three times, BTC’s 14-week RSI stayed very overbought for weeks before slowing down. The 14-week RSI is just approaching overbought levels, which suggests it has further to go.

FIGURE 9. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD WITH WEDGE BREAKOUTS AND RSI.